Back To The Bakken; Two New Permits; Four DUCs Reported As Completed -- January 25, 2024

Locator: 46647CAT.

Wow, wow, wow -- Jim Cramer starting his show off with CAT. Wow, wow wow --- CAT is one of my big-cap, non-tech stocks in my "investing buckets." 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.

INTC: down 10 percent for the day.  

AMD down 3%.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $77.09.

Active rigs: 39.

Two new permits, #40470 - #40471, inclusive:

• Operator: Oasis
• Field: Tyrone (Williams)
• Comments:
• Oasis has permits for two Maverick Federal wells, NWNE 12-156-102; to be sited 305 FNL with one 1637 FEL and the other 1571 FEL;

Four permits canceled:

• CLR: four Harms Federal wells, McKenzie County

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 39298, 459, Slawson, Jericho Federal 1 SLH, Big Bend,
  
• 39825, 1,696, Grayson Mill, Figaro 32-29 6H, Camp,
• 39826, 2,235, Grayson Mill, Figaro32-29 7H, Camp,
• 40019, 2,293, Grayson Mill, Figaro 32-293H, Camp,
  

WTI Today: Up Almost 3% -- January 25, 2024

Locator: 46646WTI.

INTC: huge share loss after earnings released. Anticipated during the day.

WTI: up almost 3%; up over $2.00 today; trading at $77.18. 

My hunch: anyone paying attention sees things heating up in the Mideast and the US Navy losing to the Houthi with regard to control of the Red Sea.

If Warren Buffett sold his TSM due to worries that China was ready to invade Taiwan, one wonders what he thinks about the Mideast right now?

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Laser-Focused on Dividends -- YUM

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The Book and Art Page

$60 at the museum; $40 at Amazon. Ordered Tuesday evening, arrived the next day, Wednesday afternoon.

• The Rossettis, Tate, edited by Carol Jacobi and James Finch, c. 2023
• Collaboration between the Tate Britain London (April - September, 2023); and,
• Delaware Art Museum (October, 2023 - January, 2024)

Another Look At The 4Q23 GDP Released This Morning -- January 25, 2024

Locator: 46645GDP.

How impressive was the GDP number for the 4Q23 that was reported this morning?

4Q23 GDP came in at 3.3%.

Analysts were forecasting 2.0%.

The last GDPNow forecast 2.4%.

Look at the graph below (previously posted. What do you notice?

Not even one analyst forecast anything close to 3%. Amazing!

RMDs -- What No One Seems To Ever Mention -- 2024 Huge Year For IRAs -- See Why -- January 25, 2024

Locator: 46644IRA.

Key dates to remember with regard to IRAs:

• 1970
• 1981
• 1997

When did IRAs truly start to impact the economy? I would argue, 1995, to some extent, but then took off in 2007:

• 1970: traditional IRA introduced
• 1980: folks became comfortable with IRAs
• 1997: IRAs improved by a huge amount with the introduction of Roth IRAs
• 2007: another ten years of traditional IRA / Roth IRA growth in popularity

Now, look at this graph:

 Same chart with markers and comments:

Demographics, US:

Look at this, and no one seems to be mentioning this.

Age when one can start taking distributions from one's IRAs: 59.5 years of age.

IRA RMDs by demographic (note, data is somewhat old):

• silent generation: minimal impact on economy with regard to RMDs
• those who have IRAs are probably using RMDs for nursing home expenses
• baby boomers: biggest impact on economy with regard to RMDs
• those born in 1964: turn 78 years of age this year
• those born in 1946: turn 60 years of age
• in other words, every -- repeat, every baby boomer can now take RMDs
• my wife has been taking distributions before they were required and now RMDs for maybe ten years and despite the withdrawals year-after year, her IRA continues to grow
• I start taking my first RMDs this year
  
• almost all baby boomers can now tap into their social security benefits
• almost all baby boomers are covered by Medicare. Medicare benefits got even better in 2024 (thank you, Mr Biden), seniors will spend less money on healthcare (all things being equal)
  
• 529s: a lot of baby boomers (GRANDPARENTS) are going to look for tax-advantage accounts to place RMDs they don't need for current expenses
• 529s have vastly improved starting this year (or last year?) making these investment vehicles look even better -- I'm having trouble finding a better place to re-invest my RMDs
• interestingly, one can argue that 529s are even better than IRAs
  
• generation X: will start to make impact this year but not much, but it will continue to grow every year for the next decade or so
• those born in 1980: turn 44 years old this year; no impact on economy with regard to RMDs but starting to hit max income / max productive years of their lives
• the younger Xers, now in the best years of their lives, financially, are now more likely to fund IRAs and that will help set a floor for the equity market;
  
• those born in 1965: turn 59 years old this year!
  
• this is the biggie
• starting this year, generation X folks can start tapping their IRAs; it doesn't mean that they will but it means that if they don't, they have enough other income to offset any need for IRA distribution (meaning strong financial status for those folks)
  
• again, this is huge
• Roth IRAs have been around 27 years and the last 27 years have been great for investors, but
• even better: the way the market behaved last year and how the market is now behaving in the second half of January, 2024, a lot of folks are getting excited
• my hunch: a lot of folks are taking some / all of their RMDs this month; if not their entire RMD, taking a fourth to half of their annual RMD
• only a few more years and Xers will also be able to access social security benefits, also
  

On top of all this, this "RMD story" is not going to go away. Year-after-year RMDs will increase in dollar amounts, but whether they increase or not, they will never quit.

And we haven't even begun to talk about "inherited RMDs":

• "inherited RMDs"? Reminder, oldest baby boomers turn 78 years of age this year -- IRS life expectancy for IRAs tend to trend toward 100 years of age -- taking only minimal RMDs, the vast majority of IRAs will still be funded and growing when their own dies.
  
• unlike owners of IRAs who can spread their RMDs over a life expectancy (26 years or longer), beneficiaries (those who inherit IRAs) must deplete those IRAs in ten years.
• one word: wow.
  

ServiceNow -- Cramer Interview With Company CEO -- January 25, 2024

Locator: 46643INV.

Tickers:

 

ServiceNow: (NOW) is not in my portfolio and not on my bucket list. I simply had not heard of it until I heard the Cramer interview. Among the many things that stood out in that interview, ServiceNow is partnered with AWS.