Friday, December 23, 2022

Electricity: $500/MWH -- Unprecedented Mix Energy Source -- Oil: 24% -- Demand Normal -- December 23, 2022

Updates

Decmber 24, 2022, link here:

Original Post

ISO NE: link here.


Through November, 2023, Ford Has Sold Only 13,258 F-150 Lightnings -- Ramping Up Too 150,000 Units By Next Fall -- December, 2022

Investors.

EVs not for me.

Why Rivian hit an all-time low today:

  • perfect storm:
    • expensive;
    • in tough times, investors want "return" (dividends)
    • recession won't treat EVs well
  • dire;

F-150 Lightning:

  • new price hike (reported earlier); link here;
  • the latest pricing increase – at least the third this year – comes as Ford attempts to expand production of the electric pickup to 150,000 units by next fall;
  • the company earlier this week said it remains on track to do so, as it recently added a third shift of workers to a Michigan plant producing the vehicle. 
  • “Demand for this breakthrough vehicle is strong and continues to grow, we will continue to monitor pricing through the model year,” the spokeswoman said in the emailed statement. 
  • through the end of November, Ford had only sold 13,258 F-150 Lightnings.

Most EV companies had "down day" on the market today; on a day the market was otherwise up. 

Tesla, link here:

Tesla stock fell another 8.8% on Thursday, yesterday, December 22, 2022, bringing its year-to-date losses to 64%.

‌

With this decline, more than $800 billion in market capitalization has been erased from the electric carmaker. The current 69.7% drawdown from its most recent high reached in late 2021 is the largest in Tesla's corporate history.

‌

And this slide has been good news to short-sellers.

‌

Data from S3 Partners published Thursday showed that through Wednesday's close, Tesla was the year's most profitable short — or stock traders were betting against — with mark-to-market profits totaling $15.03 billion so far this year. And these figures don't reflect Thursday's decline.

********************************
Nutcracker

Geoff Simon's Top Stories For The Week -- December 24, 2022

Quick connects. 

Last week's blizzard shut down one-third of Bakken total production.

Land Board completes acreage adjustment.

  • $130 million returned to private mineral owners
  • this was Part II of the 2-part adjustment
  • issue: ordinary high water mark west of the Fort Berthold reservation
  • Part I: east of US Highway 85
  • Part II: west of US Highway 85
  • surveys here;

Basin Electric to add 350 miles of high-voltage transmission in western ND over the next five years; archived.

  • one of the first phases: Neset-to-Northshore; New Town to Tioga
  • expected to be energized January, 2023 (next month)

North Dakota population closes in on 780,000

  • a new estimate released by the U.S. Census Bureau shows that North Dakota’s population reached a new all-time high of 779,261 residents as of July 1, 2022.
  • the 2021 estimate indicated population had declined.

Week 51: December 18, 2022 -- December 24, 2022

Top US energy story of the year:

Top story:

  • Joe Biden is still president

Top international non-energy story:

  • Russian-Ukraine war continues
  • Zelensky makes first known trip outside of Ukraine since war began
    • visits President Biden in DC

Top international energy story:

  • Russia says it may cut production by 500,000 bopd

Top national non-energy story:

  • peaked already? quadruple threat: Covid-19; seasonal flu; pneumococcal pneumonia, and, RSV
  • Title 42 -- temporary injunction; "southern surge" -- public health issue -- Covid-19

Top national energy story: 

  • WTI flirts with $80 by end of week on news that Russia might cut production
Javier Blas:

Focus on fracking: most recent edition.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

  • Polar vortex shuts down 1/3rd Bakken production

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

Entertainment:

Playing Dice With Mother Nature -- December 23, 2022

Note: we're doing our part. Heat / furnace is turned off; it's been off all day except for a.m. when we got up to take off the chill, and then about fifteen minutes earlier this afternoon. But off now and expect to keep it off until tomorrow morning. Lots of blankets on the bed.

Breaking: 7:07 p.m. CT -- it's now being reported tens of thousands of folks are without electricity in Tarrant County (Ft Worth), Texas, our county. There are no storms here, so it must be ERCOT grid unable to keep up with demand.

Slightly earlier: link here.


***********************************
Original Post

ERCOT.

Holy mackerel -- this is going to be close. Earlier today it looked great but it looks like the wind if dying down. It's going to be really, really close.

Playing dice with Mother Nature. This is really, really crazy.