So Much Happening -- But I Need To Go For A Bike Ride -- Laser-Focused On Dividends -- October 4, 2022

 EPD: declares dividend. No change in dividend. Record date, Halloween, 10/31/22 and pay date, 11/14/22. Now paying about 7.7%. And depending when one bought EPD originally, the yield may be a whole lot greater.

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Loretta Lynn

From wiki:

As of 2022, Lynn was the most awarded female country recording artist, and the only female ACM Artist of the Decade (1970s). Lynn scored 24 No. 1 hit singles and 11 number one albums. She ended 57 years of touring on the road after she suffered a stroke in 2017 and then broke her hip in 2018. 

I guess it will be awhile for Taylor Swift and Beyonce to catch up, and, of course, Cher never will.  

How does one produce that many albums? My hunch: she thought about her coal-mining dad who died of black lung disease at age 52 and knew that whatever she was doing was "less" than what her dad did for her. If that makes sense.

My parents were almost "exact" contemporaries of Loretta Lynn. My dad was born in 1922 and my mother was born in 1926, or thereabouts. Loretta Lynn was born in 1932.

I never listened to any music growing up in Williston until I got my driver's license, a 1948 Willys jeep, and a girlfriend in 1967 or thereabouts.

I guess Loretta Lynn's fame came a bit later. 

I still have my driver's license. My brother got my jeep. And someone from Fargo, ND, got my girlfriend.

Wow, that sounds like a country song. 

I guess my favorite memories of Loretta Lynn are those when she was with Conway Twitty.

The discography of Conway Twitty and Loretta Lynn consists of 10 studio albums, seven compilation albums, 13 singles, and two charted B-sides. 

While signed to Decca and MCA as solo artists, Twitty and Lynn charted 12 duet singles in the top ten of the Billboard Hot Country Singles chart, including five number one hits.

Definitely not one of my favorite of her duets but it reminds me of one of the women in my past. P--  had the most sexy phone voice. And that was worth a lot. 

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Back Street Affair

As I've gotten older, I've become less interested in the private lives of celebrities.

 
I would have to run through the discography but it seems the majority of Loretta Lynn - Conway Twitty duets had to do with infidelity.

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Estate Planning

One great thing about long bike rides.

Estate planning.

Got it figured out.  

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Spouses Drive Spouses Nuts

Life was so much easier last month -- the entire month -- when my wife was out visiting friends and family in southern California. 

This is turning into a Neil Simon play.

What Warren Buffett Sees -- October 4, 2022

I normally don't pay much attention to API data, rather the EIA data that comes out a day later.

Earlier I posted: 

API: reported a "surprise" draw .... well, check it out for yourself ... there's a huge data point that blows me away ... and I think Warren Buffett sees it, also. We'll see the EIA data tomorrow.

Let's look at that one data point that blows me away:

The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a surprise draw this week for crude oil of 1.770 million barrels, while analysts predicted a build of 333,000 barrels. U.S. crude inventories have grown by roughly 21 million barrels so far this year, according to API data, while the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserves fell by nearly eight times that figure.

The draw comes even as the Department of Energy released 6.2 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves in the week ending September 30 that left the SPR with 416.4 million barrels.

In the week prior, the API reported a build in crude oil inventories of 4.150 million barrels after analysts had predicted a small build of 333,000 barrels.

Did you catch it?

U.S. crude inventories have grown by roughly 21 million barrels so far this year, according to API data, while the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserves fell by nearly eight times that figure.

From my perspective, in the big scheme of things, "oil" seems fairly well balanced -- oil supply / oil demand -- based on price of gasoline and the number of days of supply for US crude oil, and yet, and yet, and yet, look at all the oil that was released from the SPR this past summer ... and gasoline is still over $3.00 / gallon in most of the US and trending toward $8 / gallon in California.

Imagine what would have happened had the US not released a million bbls of crude oil from the SPR every day this past summer.

Sure, I know a lot of that oil was exported to Europe -- and that's the SecEnergy's argument -- which means she doesn't understand the concept of "commodity." 

Cut exports to Europe, Brent surges in price, and WTI follows. 

And US operators aren't interested in making up any shortfall; US operators are laser-focused on free cash flow. 

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While Traders Were Dumping Oil ...

... Buffett bought another 5.99 million shares of OXY. And more CVX.

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What Else Warren Buffett Sees

Link here.

Arguably nothing is more important than earnings growth, as surging profit levels is what most investors are after. For growth investors, double-digit earnings growth is highly preferable, as it is often perceived as an indication of strong prospects (and stock price gains) for the company under consideration. While the historical EPS growth rate for Chevron is 8.4%, investors should actually focus on the projected growth. The company's EPS is expected to grow 126% this year, crushing the industry average, which calls for EPS growth of 122%.

Is anyone paying attention?

And this analysis / article was written before the announcement that OPEC was going to cut production.

And, of course, if anyone needs a reminder:

• Russian exports will soon plummet;
• US shale cannot make up the shortfall that will be caused by the OPEC cut in production;
• China is about to "open up";
• as the Europeans begin to freeze this winter, they will start burning more oil to make heat.

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What Else Warren Buffett Sees

There's at least one more thing that Warren Buffett sees.

I'll leave this one for later. Let readers think about it. 

Actually I can come up with at least two more reasons why Buffett is betting $25 billion on CVX and OXY.

Hess With Four New Permits; Significant Drop In Number Of Active Rigs -- October 4, 2022

API: reported a "surprise" draw .... well, check it out for yourself ... there's a huge data point that blows me away ... and I think Warren Buffett sees it, also. We'll see the EIA data tomorrow.

ISO NE: renewables now accounting for a paltry three percent of the resource mix in New England. Incredible. Fortunately demand is low.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 41. A huge drop from the 45 - 47 we've been seeing. We're now in a new quarter, and winter is coming.

WTI: $86.52.

Natural gas: $6.837

Four new oil and gas permits, #39289 - #39292, inclusive:

• Operators: Hess (4)
• Fields: Ray (Williams)
• Comments:
• Hess has permits for four GO-Tong Trust A wells, NENW 20-157-96; 
• to be sited 737 FNL and between 1630 FWL and 1729 FWL

Eight permits renewed:

• Enerplus (6): a shoal (type of sandbar), a fjord, a hogback (geologic: outcropping), an arroyo, a barchan (a type of sand dune), and a cirque (glacial craters carved into mountains) permit, all in McKenzie counties:
• BR (2): two Lillibridge permits, McKenzie County

Eight permits canceled:

• Enerplus: six LK-Bice permits, an LK-Olson permit; and a Kudo permit, all in Dunn County

It Appears The Bear Market Is Over. Recession? What? Me Worry? October 4, 2022

There are indications that the best opportunity in quite some time for investing has just come to an end. 

• the best single indicator? Recent articles about Warren Buffet.
  

Abbreviated disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

WTI: up another 3.3%; up $2.75; trading at $86.37.

• OPEC considering two-million-bopd cut?
• US shale can't make up that shortfall.
• just how big are oil profits going to be? More on that later.   

New Hampshire: LNG prices soar; electricity consumers see double

• link here;
• from the article:

When talk turns to electricity bills, fear sparks and eyes roll. Consumers here and across New Hampshire feel squeezed, and some are choosing whether to postpone making essential payments.

blockquote>“A 112% increase is ridiculous. It’s either pay this on time or that on time,” said a waitress in Tilton, a town of 3,800 on the Winnipesaukee River.Because her earnings are unpredictable and her job is not guaranteed, she is nervous about rocketing costs. The price of powering her home recently jumped from $225 to $500 a month, she said. It’s tough to decide: “Do I make my car payments, or pay my electric bill?”

Covid-19: just ordered this book; published/released today, October 4, 2022.
excerpt here;

Twitter: Elon Musk says he will purchase at original offer price. 

Biggest story of the day? Link here.

• Micron will spend up to $100 billion over at least the next two decades building a new computer chip factory in upstate New York
• this is such a huge story on so many levels;
• again, for investors, an open-book test;
• go to the link and loook at how big this story is; it's simply incredible. 
• will post later as a stand-alone post;

Streaming: by the way, there was a huge story on "streaming" also

• don't remember what it was;
• can't recall if I posted it?
• when I find it, I will let you all know
• but a lot of things have been percolating this past two months, 3Q22 -- now we enter 4Q22.

To Infinity And Beyond -- October 4, 2022

This is pretty funny. Last week, when the meeting was announced, I sent a note in jest to a reader that  before it was all over, OPEC would be discussing a 2.5-million-bopd cut. 

LOL.

It looks like we're getting there: