Wednesday, May 18, 2022

For Investors: This Is Not An Investing Site -- See Disclaimer -- May 18, 2022

What's this all about? WTI surges, pre-market --

  • trading up 2.50%; up $.281; trading at $115.20
  • up almost $3 / bbl
  • if gasoline hits a 7-handle, we may not have to wait for the 2024 November presidential election.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Refineries: earlier I wrote .. 

Interestingly, it's no longer an oil production problem (maybe never was an oil production problem; and, it's no longer a pipeline problem (maybe never was a pipeline problem) , but it's clearly a refinery problem.

If one thinks it is expensive to drill a well; if one thinks it is expensive to lay a pipeline; neither is anything compare to the cost of building a new refinery / expanding an existing one.

If one thinks it is difficult to get permit approval for a well or for a pipeline, in this ESG / woke / climate change / liquidity crisis environment, it's impossible to even think about addressing the refinery issue.

A reader replied:

Our last major refinery was completed in 1977 under Jimmy Carter, though I figure construction must have started under Jerry Ford...the good old days, right? 
Four major US refineries have been shut down since...Philadelphia Energy Solutions, the largest oil refinery on the East Coast, blew up in 2019 and was never replaced...that put us in a pretty big hole even before Covid, Ukraine and the other problems now being cited...

Pipes: Permian growth outlook brights as brownfield gas pipeline expansions advance. Link to S&P Global.

  • open season or FID declared for 1.7 Bcf/d capacity
  • projects delays gas pipeline constraints to late 2025
  • crude constraints unlikely before late 2025 or later

KMI: takes another step to expand Perman gas pipes. Link to Reuters.  

Kinder Morgan Inc added another project to the list of proposed pipes seeking to move growing amounts of natural gas from the Permian shale in Texas with its announced open season for an expansion of the Gulf Coast Express pipe in Texas.

  • the Gulf Coast Express will increase the pipe’s capacity by nearly 0.570 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd).
  • the open season for the Gulf Coast Express expansion follows another open season by Kinder in April to expand the Permian Highway gas pipe by nearly 0.650 bcfd.
  • one billion cubic feet is enough gas for about 5 million U.S. homes
Lordy, Lordy: Lordstown Motors' ability to survive questionable.
  • Apple: will it throw good money after bad?
  • Lordstown needs another $150 million (at a minimum)
  • Apple: white knight on white steed?

Lordstown needs to raise an additional $150 million in capital before the end of the year to execute on its plans for 2022, which include building about 500 vehicles, Mr. Kroll said. The company aims to have at least $75 million to $100 million in cash on its balance sheet at the end of this year, he said.

The company held cash and cash equivalents of $203.6 million at the end of the first quarter, down from $587 million a year earlier. Lordstown booked a loss of $89.6 million for the quarter, compared with a $125.2 million loss in the same period a year earlier. 

Buffett watch: Paramount --

  • Barron's: big bet on Paramount Global, an exceedingly cheap stock in the media industry
    • owns 69 million nonvoting shares of PARA
    • that 10.6% stake would be worth about $2.2 billion with shares at $31.90, up  14% yesterday
  • Barron's: why Buffett bought Paramount and not Netflix.
    • Paramount = CBS
    • do investors have show business all wrong?
    • legacy television and movie distribution are looking like more of an asset than a drag amid the shift to streaming
  • Buffett could have gone after Netflix, at $190 -- down from $700 last November
    does this make DIS that much more valuable?

Streaming: link here. Streaming wars.

WTI: $115.20 -- NDIC Website Update; Still Down -- May 18, 2022

NDIC website: all my bookmarks to various NDIC websites have been changed -- by the source, not by me -- to the new NDIC website. Still no data but seeing some change. 

Active rigs: 40, or thereabouts.

WTI: $115.20

RBN Energy: hydrogen and natural gas are back in the news (and in the pipeline). Natural gas, okay. Hydrogen. Yawn.

Hydrogen has been touted as a zero-emissions vehicle fuel, as a clean power generation source and, more generally, as a big part of the move toward decarbonization. Much of the current interest in hydrogen is its possible role as a grid-scale energy storage solution — one that might help support the growth of wind and solar renewable power generation. However, if we convert renewable energy to hydrogen, how do we store it? And how do we get it to end-use markets? As appealing as a hydrogen solution may be, these questions require thoughtful answers given some of hydrogen’s unique characteristics. With this in mind, a new set of stakeholders are beginning to take an interest in the natural gas pipeline network with an eye toward repurposing it to include hydrogen blends. In today’s RBN blog, we look at some reasons why hydrogen blending is being discussed and even being implemented on a limited basis in Europe and North America. 

The U.S. has an extensive network of about 300,000 miles of natural gas transmission pipelines (not counting distribution systems) but only about 1,600 miles of dedicated hydrogen pipelines. Most of the latter are on the Gulf Coast. 

Nearly all of these hydrogen pipelines serve the major industrial gas companies that produce hydrogen using natural gas in a process called steam methane reforming. But these days the renewed focus on hydrogen primarily stems from the potential of “clean hydrogen” produced either by running water through a renewables-powered electrolyzer (a.k.a. “green” hydrogen) or by using old-school SMR combined with carbon capture (a.k.a. “blue” hydrogen). Or, if you’re wary of the proliferating hydrogen color wheel, we’ll use the word “clean” hydrogen to denote low- or zero-carbon hydrogen generation.

Tuesday, May 17, 2022

EIA Dashboards Have Been Posted -- May, 2022, Data

EIA dashboards:

The Only Takeaway From This Report: The SPR Release Was Not Big Enough -- May 17, 2022

Link to Julianne Geiger. 

API:

  • a draw of 2.445 million bbl crude oil; forecast: 1.533-million-bbl build.
  • market anticipates a resurgence in oil demand from China as Shanghai starts to re-open.
  • US crude oil production fell to 11.8 million bopd, week ending May 6, 2022, the first drop since the end of January -- the Biden policies must be working to shut down Big Oil
  • but there was some good news: distillate stocks saw a build of 1.075 million bbls -- not often do we see a build in distillates.

Oasis With Four New Permits In The Williston Area -- May 17, 2022

From the May 16, 2022, daily activity report.

Forty active rigs.

WTI: $104 +-.

Four new permits, #38950 - #38953, inclusive:

  • Operator: Oasis
  • Field: Todd (Williams County)
  • Comments:
    • Oasis has permits for our new wells (one Osprey, one Kestrel, and two Harrier) in NESEE 33-154-101; 
      • to be sited between 1397 FSL and 1393 FSL and between 839 FEL and 938 FEL.

Eleven permits renewed:

  • EOG (6): six Liberty LR permits in Mountrail County;
  • MRO (5): a Satrum permit, a Bertsch permit, a Vanessa permit, a Herrbolt permit, and a Magdalena USA permit, all in Killdeer oil field, Dunn County;