Wednesday, May 18, 2022

For Investors: This Is Not An Investing Site -- See Disclaimer -- May 18, 2022

What's this all about? WTI surges, pre-market --

  • trading up 2.50%; up $.281; trading at $115.20
  • up almost $3 / bbl
  • if gasoline hits a 7-handle, we may not have to wait for the 2024 November presidential election.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Refineries: earlier I wrote .. 

Interestingly, it's no longer an oil production problem (maybe never was an oil production problem; and, it's no longer a pipeline problem (maybe never was a pipeline problem) , but it's clearly a refinery problem.

If one thinks it is expensive to drill a well; if one thinks it is expensive to lay a pipeline; neither is anything compare to the cost of building a new refinery / expanding an existing one.

If one thinks it is difficult to get permit approval for a well or for a pipeline, in this ESG / woke / climate change / liquidity crisis environment, it's impossible to even think about addressing the refinery issue.

A reader replied:

Our last major refinery was completed in 1977 under Jimmy Carter, though I figure construction must have started under Jerry Ford...the good old days, right? 
Four major US refineries have been shut down since...Philadelphia Energy Solutions, the largest oil refinery on the East Coast, blew up in 2019 and was never replaced...that put us in a pretty big hole even before Covid, Ukraine and the other problems now being cited...

Pipes: Permian growth outlook brights as brownfield gas pipeline expansions advance. Link to S&P Global.

  • open season or FID declared for 1.7 Bcf/d capacity
  • projects delays gas pipeline constraints to late 2025
  • crude constraints unlikely before late 2025 or later

KMI: takes another step to expand Perman gas pipes. Link to Reuters.  

Kinder Morgan Inc added another project to the list of proposed pipes seeking to move growing amounts of natural gas from the Permian shale in Texas with its announced open season for an expansion of the Gulf Coast Express pipe in Texas.

  • the Gulf Coast Express will increase the pipe’s capacity by nearly 0.570 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd).
  • the open season for the Gulf Coast Express expansion follows another open season by Kinder in April to expand the Permian Highway gas pipe by nearly 0.650 bcfd.
  • one billion cubic feet is enough gas for about 5 million U.S. homes
Lordy, Lordy: Lordstown Motors' ability to survive questionable.
  • Apple: will it throw good money after bad?
  • Lordstown needs another $150 million (at a minimum)
  • Apple: white knight on white steed?

Lordstown needs to raise an additional $150 million in capital before the end of the year to execute on its plans for 2022, which include building about 500 vehicles, Mr. Kroll said. The company aims to have at least $75 million to $100 million in cash on its balance sheet at the end of this year, he said.

The company held cash and cash equivalents of $203.6 million at the end of the first quarter, down from $587 million a year earlier. Lordstown booked a loss of $89.6 million for the quarter, compared with a $125.2 million loss in the same period a year earlier. 

Buffett watch: Paramount --

  • Barron's: big bet on Paramount Global, an exceedingly cheap stock in the media industry
    • owns 69 million nonvoting shares of PARA
    • that 10.6% stake would be worth about $2.2 billion with shares at $31.90, up  14% yesterday
  • Barron's: why Buffett bought Paramount and not Netflix.
    • Paramount = CBS
    • do investors have show business all wrong?
    • legacy television and movie distribution are looking like more of an asset than a drag amid the shift to streaming
  • Buffett could have gone after Netflix, at $190 -- down from $700 last November
    does this make DIS that much more valuable?

Streaming: link here. Streaming wars.

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