EIA April, 2021, Dashboards Have Posted

The April, 2021, EIA dashboards have been posted:

• EIA pdf, Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Eagle Ford: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf

The graphics:

The Bakken and the Permian show almost no change month-over-month. Interestingly enough, the Eagle Ford showed the "biggest" change, albeit trivial in the big scheme of things. It surprised me because so many writers / analysts have suggested the Eagle Ford is the fastest declining oil field in the country. 

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Did It Ever Get Any Better Than This?

For The Archives: Snapshots In Time -- April 12, 2021

US oil production still two million bpd under pre-pandemic levels. Link to Julianne Geiger, oilprice.  

The EIA’s Monthly Drilling Productivity Report is forecasting that for the nation’s most prolific basin, the Permian, production will return to 4.466 million barrels per day in May.

That compares to 3.918 million bpd in May 2020—but that was hardly prior to the pandemic. In January 2020, the Permian basin’s average oil production was 4.793 million bpd. This means that oil production in the Permian Basin is down 327,000 bpd, or 7% under January levels.

4.8 vs 4.5. I just can't get too excited.

Coincidentally, moments after I posted this link/story, it was noted that the EIA had posted the April, 2021, "dashboards."

• EIA pdf, Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Eagle Ford: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf

Moving on. 

Big Oil's dwindling reserves are a major problem. Link here to Cyril Widdershoven over at oilprice. I think I've been reading "these stories" or variations thereof over the past several decades. During the Jimmy Carter administration it was downright dire. 

Even before reading the article, I was thinking -- this is going to be a "money" story -- financial, economic, business -- and not a scientific, geologic story. And it was. This is the nub:

As demand recovers and oil prices climb, there are plenty of potential financial windfalls in 2021 for these companies to take advantage of. 

The question remains, however, over whether or not the companies will invest in new production and reserves or will they use it to pay dividends. 

Some analysts have already claimed that the current reserve crisis is no real issue, as most IOCs are going through an energy-transition phase. 

However, to invest in the energy transition these companies need plenty of cash to cope with the planned multi-billion-dollar wind, solar, and hydrogen projects, while also keeping investors and shareholders happy. 

As stated by Citibank, “the latest words from an IOC board chairman, ‘Black pays for green’, refer to the 80% of the CFFO (cash flow from operations) generated from oil and gas activities, which is expected to be above 70% by 2030.” 

If reserves are not high enough to sustain “normal” oil and gas operations, the time frame for energy transition success then becomes a major issue too. 

Again, this seems to be a typical "business" dilemma. Warren Buffett addressed it by simply not paying dividends. Much more to the story, of course. But, wow, how things have changed, comparing the current energy situation with that during the Carter administration, and even the Barack "we can't drill our way to cheaper oil" Obama administration. We're so over-supplied with fossil fuel the US has the luxury of shutting down pipelines even after they’ve been built and are safely transporting oil. 

What a great country.

How The DAPL Decison Will Play Out -- April 12, 2021

Where we stand on the DAPL and projections:

Friday, April 9, 2021:

• US Army Corps of Engineers won't shut it down; will let judge decide
• Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Saturday, April 10, 2021:

• Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;

Sunday, April 11, 2021:

• Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Monday, April 12, 2021:

• Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;

Tuesday, April 13, 2021:

• Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Wednesday, April 13, 2021:

• Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;

Thursday, April 14, 2021:

• Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Friday, April 15, 2021:

• Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;

Saturday, April 15, 2021;

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Meanwhile, In South Dakota

South Dakota's attorney general has been selected for promotion to colonel in the US Army reserves. Link here.

Reader Reads The DAPL Tea Leaves -- April 12, 2021

From a reader, highly edited to maintain anonymity. If the reader does not want this posted, let me know and I will remove:

The tea leaves suggest President Biden won’t step on ND DAPL after dealings with MHA Nation chief Mark Fox who went from 2016 NODAPL to current PRODAPL since 50% of MHA production rides DAPL. 

 

Mark wrote letter for Biden administration, gave to Ness in ND & legislators but not sure it went to DC. 

 

My gut says since MHA got Federal lease exception for 7 ND counties he may have stirred up Biden-American-Indian-appointed staff to push for keeping DAPL OPEN. 

 

Fox has been in Bismarck making his case for new taxes on MHA reservation oil, federal lease exemptions he secured, and keeping DAPL OPEN. Ron Ness wanted his DAPL letter sent to Biden, I read recently. 

Who knows but sounds more positive imho.

More than a dozen of our ND operators use DAPL so I’m hopeful.

The MAG 1 well & some other (JROC1) stratigraphic testing locations appear to be getting ready for EOR to come full circle. I hope to find out more on my upcoming trip to ND, soon. We have multiple tracts around MAG 1 within a stone's throw, as they say. Of course I’m highly exuberant about the Basin in ND.

NARO (National Association of Royalty Owners)

No in-person ND NARO meeting this June. NARO will be virtual per ND NARO president (e-mail). Virtual meeting to be announced. Oklahoma has October NARO in person.

Hopefully "the judge" is listening.  

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Michele Chiarlo

Link here.  

Some say it is the best dessert wine in the world. 

I will let you know my thoughts later. 

Later:

Nivole.

My wife said it was the best dessert wine she had ever tasted. It will now be here "go-to" dessert wine. LOL.

I would agree -- for a dessert wine, top shelf.

But for sipping while watching reruns of Columbo: Gater Bite is still my go-to ...

... and lo and behold, here I am ... watching an old re-run of Columbo -- "The Greenhouse Jungle," season 2, episode 2, October 15, 1972.

The Hess State B Wells In Alger Oil Field

Six new permits, as of April 12, 2021, #38253 - #38268, inclusive:

• Operator: Hess:
• Field: Alger
• Comments:
• Hess has permits for six more EN-State B wells in SWSE 4-155-93;

Active wells already sited in this drilling units:

• 24445, 515, Hess, EN-State B 155-93-1609H-2, Alger, t8/13; cum 142K 2/21; off line, 2/21;
• 24444, 1,050, Hess, EN-State B 155-93-1609H-3, Alger, t8/13; cum 194K 2/21; off line, 2/21;
• 24443, 831, Hess, EN-State B 155-93-1609H-4, Alger, t8/13; cum 181K 2/21;
• 24442, 537, Hess, EN-State B 155-93-1609H-5, Alger, t813; cum 148K 6/20; remains off line 2/21;/
• 18229, 531, Hess, EN-State B 155-93-1609H-1, Alger, t8/13; cum 303K 6/20; off line 2/21; small jump in production, 9/13; 

The graphics: