No Daily Activity Report Published Today -- November 19, 2019

Perhaps the Bakken is closed.

Until further notice.

CLR's Long Creek Unit: On another note, today I noted on the NDIC GIS map that there are two rigs operating in CLR's Lone Creek "60-well" unit. The original plan, according to CLR, was to drill out the 60 wells using only one rig. Today, I noted two rigs in the Long Creek Unit. It's possible the graphic lags what is really going on in the field, and possibly there is still just one rig operating there, but the NDIC GIS map shows two today. One rig is on #36760. The five rigs on that particular pad are all on drl status.

The other rig is on #36866; that location and #36865 on that particular 5-well pad are on drl status; the other three are still loc only.

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Great News For Texas, North Dakota, Oklahoma, New Mexico

California is one step closer to banning all oil drilling in their state. California has seen a steady decline in crude oil production since 1985, and is now down to about 450,000 bopd. In August, 2019, production was down to 439,000 bopd. The state imports much (most?) of its oil from Saudi Arabia, or at least it did at one time.

The state of California is currently investigating the high price of gasoline in their state compared to the rest of the country. I believe California's daily crude oil demand was around 1,900,000 bopd back in 2017.

Norway's Johan Sverdrup will easily make up the difference if when California bans all oil drilling.

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API Weekly US Crude Oil In Storage

A build of 5.954 million bbls. Analysts had expected a much smaller build: 1.543 million bbls. 

WTI Drops Almost $2/Bbl; Drops Over 3% -- November 19, 2019

IPO: now that it's obvious that the ARAMCO IPO won't support oil prices, WTI dropped over 3% today, and Brent crude dropped 2.7%. The OPEC basket rose 0.5%. Wall Street says the price of oil fell due to the fact that the US war on China trade has not improved, maybe gotten worse. 

Active rigs

$55.29	11/19/2019	11/19/2018	11/19/2017	11/19/2016	11/19/2015
Active Rigs	55	62	56	39	64

Six new permits, #37194 - #37199, inclusive:

• Operator: Slawson (5): North Range Resources
• Fields: North Fork (McKenzie), Grassy Butte (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• Slawson has permits for a 5-well Mauser Federal pad in lots 2 & 4, section 18-149-97, North Fork oil field
• currently three producing wells sited in that drilling unit: #25432; #25433; and, #23893; all three drilled/completed back in 2013, and all three running between 180K and 215K, cumulative
• North Range Resources has a permit for another Placid well in lot section 36-146-100, Grassy Butte oil field;
• there is one existing permit in the same section, targeting the Duperow, Placid 36-2V-D 
• permit for #37194: 320-acre spacing; will target the Duperow; it looks like the lateral will be about 3,250 feet long; 
• looking at other wells in the immediate area, one thought: "hope springs eternal"

One permit reinstated:

• 31392, Slawson, Mauser Federal 2-18-17H

Three permits renewed:

• Liberty Resources (2): a Christine permit and an LTM permit, both in Mountrail County
• CLR: a Steward permit in Divide County

Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 36393, 5,281, MRO, Yesenko USA 11-21TFH, Four Bears, t9/19; cum 25K over first 30 days;
• 35025, n/d, Whiting, Vance 14-9TFH, Truax, t--; cum --;
• 35024, n/d, Whiting, Vance 14-9-2H, Truax, t--; cum --;
• 35277, n/d, Whiting, Vance Federal 41-17-3TFH, Truax, t--; cum --;
• 35027, n/d, Whiting, Vance 14-9-2TFH, Truax, t--; cum --;

Housing Starts -- November 19, 2019

Link here.

• prior: 1.256 million
• prior revised: 1.266 million
• forecast: 1.320 million
• actual: 1.314 million

The narrative:

Upward acceleration for residential investment is the indication from housing starts and permits.

October starts just missed Econoday's consensus but at a 1.314 million annual rate they are, outside of August's 1.391 million, the strongest showing since May last year.

Permits are the big positive in today's report, well above expectations at a 1.461 million rate which is the strongest since the subprime housing bubble in 2007.

Three-month averages for the key single-family category confirm the strength. Starts are running at a 923,000 rate on the average which is another 12-year high and up sharply over the last two months. Single-family permits are at an 888,000 rate which is likewise pivoting higher and also the strongest in 12 years.

Multi-family homes are further contributing to October's strength, up 8.6 percent for starts and 8.2 percent for permits. Another major plus in the report is a 10.3 percent surge in housing completions to a 1.256 million, offering immediate supply and a further boost to the new home market.

The housing sector broke out its year-and-a-half slump last quarter and looks to be breaking out further so far this quarter. Low mortgage rates and high levels of employment are two very strong positives for housing where emerging strength will help offset extending weakness in the global economy and domestic manufacturing.

This an incredible report.

I normally would not have posted this but I happened to catch Steve Liesman report these numbers on CNBC this morning. He seemed absolutely depressed. I've never seen him seem so "down," so depressed. My hunch: he was thinking this absolutely should not be happening under Trump.

It also explains why the market is down today.

Consensus outlook, from Econoday;

Starts and permits have been volatile month-to-month but have been showing accelerating trends for single-family homes.

Starts in October are expected to come in at a 1.320 million annual pace, sharply higher than September's 1.256 million. The consensus for permits is pointing to a slight decline, at 1.378 million versus 1.391 million in August (revised from an initial 1.386 million).

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Actions Have Consequences

My hunch: a lot of folks "voted" for "emission-free by '53" assuming that if it didn't work out, it could all be changed anyway. After, 2015 is decades away from 2053. What folks did not understand was once those "regulations" or "feel-good policies" were in place it would affect urban planning in the near term. People's exhibit A (Brookline, MA, bans new natural gas hook-ups):

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FedEx Closes Pension Plan To New Hires

Link here. 

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The Herb Page

For Arianna

Sage, rosemary, and thyme. Link.

Note that common sage and rosemary are of the same genus. 

Sage: Lamiaceae family

• common sage, Salvia officinalis,
• a member of the mint family, Lamiaceae, native to the Mediterranean region
• evergreen
• leaves are oblong
• lavender flowers, late spring, summer 
• taste: mild to slightly peppery with some touches of mint

Rosemary: Lamiaceae family

• Salvia rosmarinus (as of 2017)
• Rosmarinus officinalis (until 2017, now a synonym)
• a member of the mint family, Lamiaceae; native to the Mediterranean region
• evergreen, needle-like leaves
• flowers in spring and summer, but can be in constant bloom in warm climates
• has been know to flower as late as early December
• taste: a strong, even pungent, pine-like fragrance and flavor

Thyme: Lamiaceae family

• Thymus vulgaris
•  a member of the mint family, Lamiaceae, native to the Mediterranean region
• evergreen
• huge in French cooking
• importance in Middle Eastern cooking cannot be understated
• along with oregano and marjoram, it is a crucial element of za'atar
• za'atar: a condiment; Arabic for both thyme and marjoram
• za'atar: contains many of the essential oils found in thyme
• dried thyme is widely used in Armenia in tisanes (called urc) --  herbal teas

Idle Rambling -- Looking Forward To October, 2019, North Dakota Crude Oil Production -- November 19, 2019

From the data below the asterisks, we can have some fun predicting crude oil production in North Dakota for the month of October, 2019. That data will be released mid-December, 2019.

Crude oil production (see the September, 2019, preliminary data):

• August, 2019: 1,480,475 bopd

Let's suppose September had been a "normal" weather month. Then, let's suppose, crude oil production would have been up 2.1%, or 1,511,565 bopd for September (again, back-of-the-envelope calculations based on assumption).

Then, for October, another 2.3% increase in production or 1,546,331 bopd.

If that happens, a month from now:

• October, 2019: 1,546,331 bopd
• September, 2019, revised, final (assumptions): 1,456,264 bopd
• month-over-month: an increase of 90,067 bopd
• month-over-month: an increase of 6.2%

So, this will be fun to watch. Again, everything above the asterisks is idle chatter, back-of-the-envelope calculations, based o assumptions. The numbers are forecast estimates and not actual production figures.

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This may be the big story coming out of the Director's Cut for September, 2019, data: the number of wells off line for operational reasons (DUCs and "inactive" wells):

• Wells that were off line, at the end of September, 2019: 3,020 -- this may be an all-time high since this data was first reported for the Bakken; this is amazing; due to a very, very wet September; wettest on record, some say

• DUCs: 916 (down 14 from the 930 in August)
• inactive well count: 2,104 (up 429 from 1,675 in August)
• wells off line for operational reasons are tracked here; 

The Director's Cut

Data For September, 2019 

North Dakota Oil and Natural Gas Production

Crude oil production:

• September, 2019, forecast: 1,409,785 bopd
• September, 2019, preliminary: 1,443,275 bopd
• revenue forecast: 1,400,000 bopd
• August, 2019, final, 1,480,475 bopd
• July, 2019, final: 1,445,934 bopd
• June, 2019, final: 1,425,230 bopd (previous all-time high)
• month-over-month: a decrease of 37,000 bopd(September-August)
• month-over-month: a decrease of 2.5% (September-August)

Director's Cut -- September, 2019 -- Data -- Posted

This may be the big story coming out of the Director's Cut for September, 2019, data: the number of wells off line for operational reasons (DUCs and "inactive" wells):

• Wells that were off line, at the end of September, 2019: 3,020 -- this may be an all-time high since this data was first reported for the Bakken; this is amazing; due to a very, very wet September; wettest on record, some say

• DUCs: 916 (down 14 from the 930 in August)
• inactive well count: 2,104 (up 429 from 1,675 in August)
• wells off line for operational reasons are tracked here; 

 This was posted 24 hours after I posted the Director's Cut:

Again, see disclaimer below.

Link here.

NDIC Director's Cuts are posted here. 

The Director's Cut

Data For September, 2019 

North Dakota Oil and Natural Gas Production

Disclaimer: usual disclaimer applies. As usual, this is done very, very quickly. It is not proofread. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. If this is important to you, go to the source.

A huge, huge "thank you" to Lynn Helms and his staff at the NDIC getting this information out in a timely and transparent manner. I am not aware of any other state that does such a good job providing such data. 

Crude oil production:

• September, 2019, forecast: 1,409,785 bopd
• September, 2019, preliminary: 1,443,275 bopd
• revenue forecast: 1,400,000 bopd
• August, 2019, final, 1,480,475
• July, 2019, final: 1,445,934 bopd
• June, 2019, final: 1,425,230 bopd (previous all-time high)
• month-over-month: a decrease of 37,000 bopd(September-August)
• month-over-month: a decrease of 2.5% (September-August)

Gas production:

• September, 2019, forecast: 3,040,100 MCF/day
• September, 2019, preliminary: 2,947,469 MCF/day
• 81% capture
• August , 2019, final: 3,014,419 MCF/day -- an all-time high
• July, 2019, final: 2,944,816 MCF/day
• June, 2019, final: 2,885,293 MCF/day

BOE, September, preliminary:

• natural gas:  2,947,469 MCF/day = 491,163 boe
• crude oil: 1,443,275 bopd
• total boe, preliminary for September, 2019: 1,934,438 boepd
• total boe for August, 2019: 1,982,794 boepd 
• month-over-month increase/decrease: 48,356 boe
• month-over-month: a decrease of 2.4%

Producing wells:

• September, 2019, preliminary:
• August, 2019, final: (all-time high was 15,954, July 2019)
• July, 2019, preliminary: 15,954 (another new all-time high)
• June, 2019, 15,752

Permitting:

• October, 2019: 126
• September, 2019: 92
• August, 2019: 127
• July, 2019: 141
• June, 2019: 127

Rig count:

• Today: 55 (all-time high was 218 on 5/29/12)
• October: 59
• September: 61
• August: 62
• July: 57
• June: 63

Fort Berthold Reservation data partitioned out.

Completions:

• September, 2019, preliminary: 94
• revenue forecast: 90
• August, 2019, final: 102
• July, 2019, final: 137
• June, 2019, 102 (revised, last month's report); revised again, now, 123
• May, 2019, 113 (final)

Gas capture:

• statewide, captured: 82% (81% reported last month)
• statewide, captured: 
• September, 2019: 2,429,154 MCF/day (preliminary)
• previous all time high was May, 2019: 2,287,761 MCF/day
• FBIR Bakken:
  September, 2019, captured: 79% (75% reported last month)

Off line, to end of September, 2019: 3,020 -- this may be an all-time high since this data was first reported for the Bakken; this is amazing; due to a very, very wet September; wettest on record, some say

• DUCs: 916 (down 14 from the 930 in August)
• inactive well count: 2,104 (up 429 from 1,675 in August)
• wells off line for operational reasons are tracked here;