When Mexico Implodes: PEMEX Oil Production, March, 2019 -- Analyst Suggests 1.7 Million BOPD

Updates

May 25, 2019:

Original Post

See this note. At that post:

April 5, 2019: no link; from analyst over at twitter today; company estimates PEMEX produced 1.7 million bopd in March, 2019. Note recent production history below. "Current production" said to be 1.8 million bopd so if the 1.7 million bopd is correct, Mexico's oil production is going in the wrong direction.

From Platts/oilprice:

For OPEC: 570,000 bbls / 30.8 million bbls = 1.85% decline

Global production: 570,000 bbls / 100 million bbls = 0.57%.

I think the world will manage.

The US has 450 million bbls of oil in storage (commercial; does not include SPR); historically the US got along just fine with about 300 million bbls in storage; re-balancing: can't even get back to 350 million bbls. The bad news: OPEC generally has the "right" kind of oil -- the oil that is needed to blend light oil for refiners. But of the three, WTI, Brent, and OPEC basket, only OPEC basket was "down" today in trading. The other two were up. WTI and Brent were both up about 1.5%; OPEC basket was down about a third of a percent.

"New" Operator In North Dakota: Freedom Energy Operating, LLC -- April 5, 2019

Not really "new" but I had forgotten about this company. It turns out it had a dry well back in 2017. 

From "well search," NDIC, North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources. Freedom Energy has two permits.

• 33997, dry, Freedom Energy Operating, LLC, Freedom Energy ND 1-15, Heart River, target: Lodgepole, t10/17; this was an Oasis Petroleum well, about 6 miles west of Dickinson; a vertical hole targeting the porous reef of the Lodgepole formation; drilled to a depth of 10,275 feet; targeting the "mound" of the Lodgepole Formation that is located along the base of the Lodgepole to the top of the Bakken formation; spud on October 2, 2017; TD on October 14, 2017; "inconclusive evidence indicating the presence of the reef structure of interest; plugged back and abandon." See this post.

• #36308 is already on confidential status. This well is a mile or so south SSW of Dickinson. The nearest well is 22365.

• #22365, dry, Chimney Sweep Oil & Gas Company, Hondl 21-1, wildcat, Lodgepole, 4/5/12.

This information from my "Bakken operators" page:

Freedom Energy Operating, LLC

• April 5, 2019: second permit; Lodgepole permit about a mile SSW of Dickinson
• see this update regarding dry well, October 23, 2017; 
• first mentioned at this post, September 12, 2017, with its first permit in North Dakota   
• Freedom's website has one "cover page"; absolutely no information, posted November 17, 2017; a lot of companies have "Freedom Energy" or something similar in their name

WTI Closes Above $63; Seven New Permits -- April 5, 2019

Active rigs:

$63.30	4/5/2019	04/05/2018	04/05/2017	04/05/2016	04/05/2015
Active Rigs	62	58	49	29	94

Eight new permits:

• Operators: Bruin E&P Operating (6); BR; Freedom Energy Operating
• Fields: Eagle Nest (Dunn); Sand Creek (McKenzie); Wildcat -- Oltmans Ocelot, Stark County
• Comments:
• Bruin has permits for a 6-well Fort Berthold pad in section 27-148-95 in Eagle Nest oil field
• BR has a permit for a Renegade well in section 10-153-97 in Sand Creek oil field 
• Freedom Energy has a permit for a wildcat in Stark County, Oltmans Ocelot 1-21, NENW 21-139-96;

Two permits reinstated:

• Slawson: two Snakeeyes permits in Big Bend; Mountrail County
  

Thirteen permits renewed:

• XTO (9): five Bud permits; four Kenneth permits, all in Williams County;
• MRO (3): a Ruth permit; a Snider permit;, and a Higgins permit, all in Dunn County;
• BR: a Saddle Butte permit in McKenzie County

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 32233, 2,324, Bruin E&P, Fort Berthold 152-94-15B-22-8H, Antelope-Sanish, t1/19; cum 51K after 35 days; (#24731; #25494; #32232; #24739; 24738; #24737; #18402; #20567)
• 20567, a huge well; off line
• 18402, ditto
• 24737, back on line; huge jump in production;
• 24738, back on line; looks like a jump in production;
• 24739, huge, huge jump in production; must have been re-fracked; check later;
• 32232, SI/NC but huge production to date; 50K in 33 days;
• 25494, back on line; no jump in production?
• 24731, huge well, never take off line; producing about 5,000 bbls/month; t10/13; cum 592K 2/19;

***************************************

See new permits above:

It Gets Tedious -- April 5, 2019

But look at that: WTI finally over $63 -- on a Friday afternoon -- going into a weekend. OPEC basket? Red.

Not tedious:

*********************** 

Bureaucracies

I've worked in one of the world's largest bureaucracies all my life. Why bureaucracies are so inefficient? Because no one is able to make a decision; decisions are made by glacially-moving committees.

This is the reason the chaotic, out-of-control White House has been so effective. The person-in-charge makes decisions quickly, and is able to communicate his intent very, very clearly.

The Real Definition Of March Madness -- April 5, 2019

For those who are concerned that if we don't do something now, we have less than twelve years to save the world, or however Occasional-Cortex put it.

It looks like things just went from bad to worse.

From a reader:

Today at noon, [a Minnesota television station] reported that approximately 300 private jets would be flying into Minneapolis today for the Final Four NCAA basketball championship (March Madness).

The MPLS airport only has room to park 162 aircraft so the others will be parked at nearby terminals, including St Paul, Flying Cloud, and perhaps Crystal airport.

Think about all the unnecessary CO2 emissions.

And, no, the planes don't just magically appear at Crystal airport. They will drop off their four passengers, and then take off again for Crystal, and then later, return to the Minneapolis airport.

Who wants to bet the majority of those private jets are NetJets, owned by Warren Buffett?

And a reminder that these same folks are telling me to live with less, shrink my carbon footprint. It gets tedious.

And I bet the croissants / bagels at the airports cost $11 apiece.

One more reason I can't take the global warming scam seriously. Not the croissants. The fact that we are being told that we can't "afford" to fly any more if we want to save the world, and yet 300 planes carrying an average of four passengers each will be flying in (and out) for a college football tournament.

March Madness? This occurs like clockwork every year, and will continue for the next twelve years. Wanna bet?

The good news? It will continue to occur for the next 50 years. At least.