Saturday, May 27, 2017

About That Cut In OPEC Production --- May 27, 2017

Updates

June 4, 2017: Saudis just blowing smoke -- Bloomberg. Nice update of the three Motiva refineries: Port Arthur in Texas (Saudi Aramcco); Norco, Convent in Louisiana (Shell). The Shell refineries take very little Saudi Arabian oil; Port Arthur takes 238,000 bopd from Saudi Arabia (21% of all Saudi crude sales to the US. To the other two refineries, only 33,000 bopd sourced from Saudi Arabia.
Crude loading during June in Saudi Arabia will arrive off the U.S. coast between mid-July and mid-August. By then, refinery runs will already be at their seasonal peak and attention will be starting to turn towards the fall slowdown, which typically gets under way around the end of July. This may allow the Saudis to claim a seasonal downturn as evidence of cuts.
Bloomberg tanker tracking data shows Saudi crude exports to the U.S. in May at around 840,000 barrels a day. That is a drop of 160,000 barrels from April. Significant? Perhaps, but it only takes them back to where they were in January, the first month of the output deal.
May 28, 2017: perhaps the graph below explains why the Vienna meeting was a bust for OPEC. LOL.  
 
Original Post
 
Note how much higher OPEC production is today -- after the production cuts -- than it was in 2014, prior to the production cuts. I guess it's how one defines "production cuts."

Thought experiment: overlay this chart with US shale production during same period of time.


Friday, May 26, 2017

Quickies -- May 26, 2017

Mexican natural gas demand: No links but scrolling through Twitter suggests Mexico's demand for natural gas is going to significantly outpace domestic supply. Imports won't fill all the demands. That's why I'm following SRE.

Canadian pipeline: Kinder Morgan commits to pipe linking oil-sands crude to Asian markets. From Bloomberg: Kinder Morgan Inc. has committed to expanding a pipeline that will allow Canadian crude to be exported to Asia, a controversial C$7.4 billion ($5.5 billion) project that’s set to face revitalized opposition amid political upheaval in the nation’s Pacific Coast province. The Houston-based company announced its final investment decision for the Trans Mountain expansion project Thursday, saying it expects to secure enough financing from an initial public offering of its Canadian subsidiary to proceed with the project. It expects to raise C$1.75 billion from the IPO by May 31, according to a statement.

OPEC's production cut timeline (for the archives):


Q&A for the day:
Q: What is meant by Dated Brent? How is the Oil Official Selling Price (OSP) decided? What does OSP Premium signify?
A: Brent is a particular crude oil - all crudes are slightly different and therefore have a different value. The premium (or discount) adjusts for this difference. When the OSP is decided, normally they are assessing the premium. They will look at the amount of each product that can be produced from the oil, the value of each component and then assess the premium from the difference between their crude and Brent.
Dated Brent is a benchmark assessment of the price of physical, light North Sea crude oil. The term "Dated Brent" refers to physical cargoes of crude oil in the North Sea that have been assigned specific delivery dates. Each dated cargo of crude oil is often traded more than once as it makes its way to delivery to refineries -- where crude is transformed into products like gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and more.
We'll see:
"Exports to the US will drop measurably " said AlFalih. Credibility of Saudi strategy in this sentence. Easily monitored. [One can start here.]
Reality sucks, from Business Insider, a realistic look at Ford vis-à-vis Tesla:
This last point is a nightmare scenario of sorts for Tesla. The Model 3 could become the car that eats the company. With current distribution, there have been some indications that annual sales of the Model S and Model X luxury vehicles could plateau at about 100,000.

Even if the figure were double that, Tesla would still need to sell 800,000 Model 3s and mass-market variants, such as the Model Y crossover and possibly a compact pickup truck. Production at that level would mean Tesla would need to build a new factory or set up assembly lines at its Nevada Gigafactory. The capital expenditure to pull this off would be staggering for a company that isn't making money.

Ford, by contrast, has made over $20 billion in the past two years.

Faulty Weld Behind Dakota Access (DAPL) Leak -- May 26, 2017

Link here to The Williston Herald. Archived.

Incredibly poor reporting and worse, a fake headline. From a reader:
DAPL leak not a weld but a flange on a line connected to DAPL and a valve at a pump station....not equipment tested during the hydro where the line is pressured above it's maximum allowable operating pressure ....water test before crude introduced.

They Come In Three's -- May 26, 2017

Roger Moore. May 23, 2017. 89 years old.

Zbigniew Brzezinski. May 26, 2017. 89 years old.

Gregg Allman. May 27, 2017. 69 years old. 

Week 21: May 21, 2017 -- May 27, 2017

This is the week that OPEC agreed to extend production cuts (wink, wink) for a full nine months, with no exit plan. The price of oil promptly plunged 5%.

Operations
WPX reports a Bakken well that produces almost 60,000 bbls in one month 
A Madison well northeast of Minot is really quite remarkable
Some see 80 rigs in 2018 in North Dakota

Fracking
Neighboring wells show increase production jump

Bakken economy
Port of North Dakota in default; files for bankruptcy protection
Nuverra (formerly Power Fuels, Watford City, ND) files for bankruptcy protection
ONEOK opens new office in Sidney, MT
SM Energy delays selling Divide County assets