Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Wells Coming Off Confidential List Wednesday, The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA

  • 23736, drl, BR, Bryce 41-5TFH,Westberg, no production data,
  • 24902, 1,949, KOG, Smokey 3-17-20-14H, Pembroke, t1/14; cum --
  • 25761, 1,810, MRO, Kathryn Kukla 14-34H, Murphy Creek, t12/13; cum 7K 12/13;

Active rigs:


2/19/201402/19/201302/19/201202/19/201102/19/2009
Active Rigs18618219917161

RBN Energy:  condensate splitters along the Gulf Coast; not much of a market for naphtha except perhaps as export.

 The Los Angeles Times

The response to this op-ed from one individual: things change, get over it. The op-ed: the "Tonight Show" is gone; OXY is going. LA needs a new game plan. I was unaware of this:
Websense left San Diego two weeks ago and took their 600 jobs to - are your ready?- Texas.  
Also two week ago Charles Scwab moved their entire financial company from San Francisco to Colorado. Even those in Bay Area are alarmed by Scwab moving. Whenever you mention to some that California is losing high-paying jobs by the thousands every month they say "but we have Google, Apple and Facebook." 
But what they don't realise is that those companies are not expanding here, they are bullding and hiring in Texas, Florida, New Mexico and Nevada.  According to the WSJ, California was #1 in poverty rates and #50 in small business start-ups in 2013.  We are quickly becoming a state of protected illegal peasants and low-wage jobs.  
Our governor?  Clueless.
Later this year Virgin will be testing space flight for regular people in New Mexico.  The company that developed the rockets and business plan did it in eastern Kern County in the Mojave desert.  They were hoping to blast off from there, but moved to New Mexico when California regulators made it impossible to remain.  Virgin has already hired 300 people. 
The Wall Street Journal

Inside Target, CEO struggles to contain giant cybertheft.  
Inside Target, Executives settled around a square table inside a Target Corp. conference room here earlier this month and munched on store-brand snacks as they chewed over something far less appetizing.
Opinion surveys commissioned by the company found that the massive cybertheft that waylaid Target late last year had knocked confidence and trust in the 51-year-old retailer to an all-time low.
Some of the executives were frustrated. Target was having trouble shaking the fallout from a key decision by the CEO that made the crisis appear even worse than it already was. The initial evidence had indicated that credit and debit card numbers of about 40 million Target customers had been stolen.
But the retailer had learned later that hackers gained access to partial names and physical or email addresses for as many as 70 million people—a breach that some top executives counseled against disclosing because it was unclear what kind of fraud danger it posed.
Nevertheless, Mr. Steinhafel insisted on making the bigger number public, sparking news reports that as many as 110 million Target customers had been affected. At the meeting, Chief Marketing Officer Jeffrey Jones groused about the huge number. The public "keeps hearing that equals one third of all Americans," he said. "That's hammering us." Mr. Steinhafel says he has no regrets about the aggressive disclosure and other costly decisions in the wake of the crisis. "Target won't be defined by the breach, but how we handle the breach," he says.
The phrase in bold above might explain why we have learned in dribs and drabs from Target what happened. At first they denied private information was taken, and then admitted that private information had been taken. And it only got worse. Later we learned that the CEO made the decision ten years not to go to chip technology (too expensive). Had Target taken the lead in chip technology ten years ago, it would have set the entire US retail market on a better security trajectory. And just this past week there were reports that federal agencies (FBI?) warned Target that it was, indeed, a Target.

The numbers were bad enough but it was the way Target handled the problem at the outset that was the problem, at least for us. I won't go through that again. Suffice it to say, my wife and I minimize our visits to Target, which used to be our favorite retailer, and never, never use a credit card there. The good news: we're spending less money each month. 

********************************

Raising the minimum wage will result in fewer jobs; more poverty. That's the CBO analysis. The White House disagrees. I don't have a dog in this fight, but it's an interesting debate. For investors, at the end of the day, the minimum wage, like flaring in the Bakken, is a red herring. Employers will adjust. The most interesting argument that seems to be missing when discussing the minimum wage is the effect of ObamaCare. ObamaCare gave employers the green light to cost-shift their employees and retirees to private insurance and off the corporate healthcare program. That's worth ten times -- maybe more -- whatever becomes of the minimum wage. All I know is that raising the minimum wage will result in McDonald's putting in self-ordering kiosks which will result in the need for fewer employees. If one can order health insurance off the web, or check in at the airport at a kiosk, surely one can order a hamburger, French fries, and a Coke off a stand-alone Surface or iPad.

*********************************

The next big debate: student debt. 
The nation's sharp rise in student debt is being driven largely by Americans with poor credit.
Overall student debt rose 12% to $1.08 trillion in 2013, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in a report released Tuesday.
Student debt is the second-largest form of household credit, after mortgages.
Student debt has risen rapidly since the recession, as many Americans enrolled in school to escape a weak labor market. Also, other funding sources—such as home equity and household savings—diminished after the housing crash, forcing a greater share of students to borrow.
The biggest promoter of education (and student loans): it's not rocket science. But not to worry: sometime over the next decade, the government will solve this problem also. LOL. My advice to those with huge student debt load: pay off just enough to keep out of trouble, but don't let it interfere with your life's plans. It's just a matter of time before the government finds a way to write off that debt for you. It will probably be the issue for the 2020 or 2024 presidential campaign.

******************************************* 

Well, this is interesting. Arkansas could scuttle ObamaCare? Maybe I'm misreading the story.  It never quits, does it?
The Arkansas House of Representatives on Tuesday failed to pass legislation to continue a state program that used Medicaid dollars to enroll low-income residents in private health insurance, throwing the future of the nationally watched program into doubt.
Arkansas last fall became the first state to begin offering a "private option" for low-income residents instead of enrolling them in Medicaid—the result of a compromise between state Republicans and Democrats about how to implement a key provision in the Affordable Care Act.
The private option was designed to appeal to conservative lawmakers who wanted to cut the number of uninsured people in the state and use federal dollars to do so, but believed the private sector could provide care more efficiently than Medicaid.
Too confusing for me, but something tells me this is not good. For someone.

***********************************

The Supreme Court will hear whether EPA has gone too far. Let's hope the court doesn't blow it this time.

***********************************

The Journal has a long, long article on Obamacare. This is the lede:  
The federal law upended existing health-insurance arrangements for millions of people. Companies worry about the expense of providing new policies, some hospitals aren't seeing the influx of new patients they expected to balance new costs and entrepreneurs say they may hire more part-time workers to avoid offering more coverage.
The law's true impact will play out over years. It will depend in part on whether backers overcome serious early setbacks, including crippling glitches in the new online insurance marketplaces and many states' rejection of the Medicaid expansion. But another obstacle the law faces is pushback from some consumers and industry over the higher costs, complex rules and mandatory requirements it imposes.
There is so much with regard to Obamacare one could devote an entire blog to the subject.  But the concepts and unintended consequences are pretty straightforward. It's not rocket science. The $12,000 annual deductible for a traditional husband-wife couple pretty much says it all. Oh, and the 30-hour work week.

40 hours at $8/hr = $320/week, minimum wage. 30 hours at $10.10 = $303/week, new minimum wage, Obamacare rules. And the employer will cost-shift the employee's health care premium.

It's no wonder that folks working for a minimum wage are panicking: on top of everything else, their hours are going to be cut. Maybe that explains all the interest in the minimum wage all of a sudden.

*************************************

Wow, this is interesting. Big day for news. Turkey -- a country that a lot of folks would consider pretty modern (considering), and pretty democratic (considering), and pretty progressive (considering) and now this: Turkey, the government, will now restrict web access. The new law will give the president sweeping powers to block websites and monitor user activity....wow. One does not need to read any further.

***********************************

And this is just the front section today.

***********************************

GM secures aluminum for trucks. It looks like Government Motors was caught off-guard by their former CEO yesterday when he called faor an acceleration in fuel standards for trucks.
General Motors Co. is accelerating efforts to field a largely aluminum-bodied pickup truck by late 2018, under pressure from federal fuel efficiency standards and archrival Ford Motor Co. according to people familiar with the matter.
The No. 1 U.S. auto maker recently locked-in supply contracts with Alcoa Inc. and Novelis Inc., which are now working to increase their aluminum sheet production to supply the next-generation GM pickup, the people said. Aluminum sheet for automotive bodies is in such high demand that companies need to order it years in advance.he push to develop what the industry calls an "aluminum intensive" large pickup marks an apparent change of direction for GM, which has pursued smaller and lighter weight steel-bodied trucks.
Before Ford's debut last month of its 2015 F-150, with a body made almost entirely of aluminum, GM executives questioned whether such a vehicle could be cost competitive or appealing to U.S. customers.
Instead, GM developed two small pickups, the Chevrolet Colorado and GMC Canyon, to meet rising demand for better fuel economy. Those two vehicles are due to arrive on the market as 2015 models this year.
***************************************

Assistance for laid-off workers gets downsized.
As unemployment remains stubbornly high, one of the main tools companies use to help some laid-off workers find new jobs is shrinking. Outplacement used to be a way to help upper-level employees—usually managers and above—through a job loss and guide them toward new work. But where companies once paid outside firms for months of face-to-face coaching, job leads, office space and workshops, laid-off workers today get less help.
This caught me by surprise. DOE approves loan guarantees for two new nuclear reactors in Georgia.

The Los Angeles Times

Really? The president will sign an executive order streamlining imports, exports. I wonder if that includes road salt for New Jersey?  Nope, too much to hope for. This is simply an executive order for a website that will operate just like Obamacare. LOL. Too much to hope for. An empty suit. The lede:
President Obama plans to sign an order Wednesday that officials say will cut the waiting time on permits to import and export goods "from days to minutes."

Currently, businesses submit information to dozens of government agencies, often on paper forms, and must then wait for days before moving goods across U.S. borders.
The changes to the International Trade Data System will let businesses send the required information electronically through a single portal before importing or exporting cargo, a White House official said Wednesday morning.‎
Obama's order will direct government agencies to complete work on the new system by December 2016, at the end of his term, the official said.
Yes, this will get mired in bureaucracy; won't happen in my investing lifetime. LOL.

Plan To Meet New England's Energy Needs: 1) Expensive 2) Inadequate -- Need Twice What The Plan Calls For

Regular readers know what RBN Energy has to say about the New England energy debacle -- it will take up to six years to get the infrastructure in place to meet the energy needs of New England. This article confirms what we already know: 
New England is facing an energy crisis brought on by high natural gas prices, and the call by governors in the six states for a new, publicly funded natural gas pipeline does not go far enough to solve the problem, according to a detailed analysis of the region's energy options.
The 30-page analysis, released on Feb. 11, was conducted by a consulting group, Competitive Energy Services of Portland, Maine, on behalf of the Industrial Energy Consumer Group, which represents large-scale users of electricity in New England.
"The governors' recommended addition of one billion cubic feet of natural gas pipeline capacity will help lower energy prices," according to the analysis, "but will still leave New England paying $600 million more for energy annually than if adequate pipeline capacity existed."
The consultants used 12 months of 2013 data to estimate future trends, and concluded that New England needs two billion cubic feet of new natural gas pipeline capacity — twice what the governors are calling for.
"Since 2012, a fundamental shift toward higher costs due to inadequate gas pipeline capacity has occurred in New England," they wrote.
That first statement -- New England is facing an energy crisis brought on by high natural gas prices -- in bold is a bit of a stretch. New England is NOT facing an energy crisis brought on by high natural gas prices.

I believe it was brought on by high heating oil prices and "everyone" in New England switching from high-priced heating oil to natural gas (coal-produced electricity was not an option; the president had pretty much killed the coal industry). Natural gas is not all that high priced -- less than half what it has been in the past, and a third to a fourth of what Europe and Asia are paying. No, it is not the "high cost of natural gas" that is causing the problem, it is the lack of infrastructure to bring adequate amounts of natural gas to New England in the first place.

Local folks should ask their elected officials how this came about. Obviously the solution is going to be very, very expensive. A lot of industry is going to move elsewhere. It costs a lot to move, but most industry can re-capture their costs over six years, if that's how long it's going to be before New England has adequate supply to meet demand.

A big "thank you" to a reader for sending the link to the article. RBN Energy has been saying the same thing for quite some time.

Eight (8) New Permits -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA; XTO Reports A Huge Well

Active rigs:


2/18/201402/18/201302/18/201202/18/201102/18/2010
Active Rigs18518019917193

Eight (8) new permits -- 
  • Operators: BR (6), QEP, Ballard
  • Fields: Elidah (McKenzie), Grail (McKenzie)
  • Comments: BR permits are for a 6-well pad; Ballard has a permit for a wildcat in Bottineau County (and probably a Spearfish well)
Wells coming off the confidential list this long weekend have been posted; see sidebar at the right. EOG reported some spectacular wells.

In addition, there were eight (8) producing wells completed:
  • 25767, 531, CLR, Pierre 5-21H, Dollar Joe, t12/13; cum 8K 12/13;
  • 25766, 594, CLR, Madison 4-28H1, Dollar Joe, t12/13; cum 6K 12/13;
  • 25765, 848, CLR, Madison 5-28H, Dollar Joe, t12/13; cum 7K 12/13;
  • 25478, 528, CLR, Malcolm 2-20H1, Sauk, t1/14; cum --
  • 25479, 487, CLR, Malcolm 3-20H, Sauk, t2/14; cum --
  • 25480, 261, CLR, Malcolm 4-20H1, Sauk, t2/14; cum --
  • 23875, 662, CLR, Juneau 2-11H,  Brooklyn, t12/13; cum 14K 12/13;
  • 25549, 3,264, EXTO, Marlene 42X-20G, Blue Buttes, t2/14; cum -- 
This is an interesting name change:
  • 26850, QEP, Otis 4-28-33BHR (was Otis 29-32-28-33LL)
For newbies, this is what a "sweet spot" looks like. First, the Elidah oil field:






The cluster of new permitted sites really, really stands out. Now, zoom in on sections 10 and 15:



[The following day, February 19, 2014, BR announced six more permits for this immediate area, including three more Haymaker wells and a Bullrush well.]

The completed wells in this screenshot:
  • 18380, 1,798, BR, Bullrush 24-10H, Elidah, t2/10; cum 235K 12/13;
  • 18798, 3,700, BR, Haymaker 21-15H, Elidah, t9/10; cum 200K 12/13;
  • 25005, 2,913, BR, Bullrush 44-10TFH, Elidah, t6/13; cum 58K 12/13; no pump;
****************************************

By the way, completely unrelated, here's a screenshot of a sweet spot in Johnson Corner:



These are all three- or four-well pads in Johnson Corner, northeast McKenzie County, near Watford City. These are all Burlington Resources wells, Norman and Denali wells on each of the four pads.

For all the activity (four rigs on four pads), it is interesting that there are not many existing wells in the immediate area.
  • 17680, 463, BR, Denali 31-28H, t2/09; cum 125K 12/13; no pump; 
  • 18225, 625, BR, Norman 1-9H, t1/10; cum 140K 12/13;
  • 18047, 1,620, BR, Teton 21-3H, t9/10; cum 128K 12/13;
Lots of "seed corn" being planted as they say in Iowa.

Off The Net For Awhile: I See Yahoo!Finance Finally Got Their Data Point Correct

WTI is up a whopping 1.6%, solidly above $101/bbl now. [Later, the market closed with oil over 2% -- and "the financial press" connects it with a falling dollar:
  • Mar crude oil rose $2.23 to $102.52/barrel 
    • Crude oil climbed above $102 as the dollar index traded in the red. Prices came off a session low of $101.16 set in early morning pit trade and touched a session high of $102.54 just before settling with a 2.2% gain. Comment: if oil had been trending lower and slipped below $90, I could understand buyers jumping in on a bargain and moving the price up 2%; but when oil has been high-priced for longest stretch ever, for it to go up another 2% certainly seems it has to be more than just related to the dollar. The five-day EURDOL graph has it going from $1.364 to $1.376 -- all of one cent. Hard to see how that accounts for a 2% rise in the price of oil; of course ,the EURDOL trend is the one market watchers are concerned about. This is the low for the dollar for 2014 -- a huge psychological reason for oil to move up, I suppose.]
My thoughts in an unedited e-mail reply to Don with regard to the rise in the price of oil:
The dollar is marginally weaker over two years, but certainly not weaker over the five-year-graph. I suppose a marginally weaker dollar accounts for some, but not all of the $1.00+ rise in price today.

The Mideast is quiet (at least with regard to headlines that CNBC reacts to).

WTI/NYMEX is priced at Cushing and Keystone XL south is draining Cushing, so there's an artificial drop in storage at Cushing -- but analysts should have that factored in by now.

The RBN story, repeated again today, about the mismatch of refineries and light oil, is the only thing that I can figure out that might explain the rise. The additional heavy oil that the refineries would need would come from Venezuela, and we both know that Venezuela is about to implode.
And then later, in another response to the suggestion that nuclear arms race in the Mideast might be a factor:
I honestly don't see a whole lot different in the Mideast today than I did several years ago, except the nuclear arms race. And that will play out for decades. I think the rise in the price of oil today has as much to do with a recovering global economy as anything else; RBN Energy says Europe is short diesel and buying all the diesel, other refined products it can ship from Texas, Louisiana refineries.
Off the net for awhile. It's a beautiful day in the DFW neighborhood; going biking. I see that the Drudge Report is all screwed up at the moment. I thought only bloggers like me made mistakes like that. LOL. [Update, five seconds later: The Drudge Report has "been fixed." Thank goodness.]

Zeits Not Impressed With SandRidge Open Hole Completions In The Mississippi Lime

The link takes you to SeekingAlpha with contributor Richard Zeits, one of the best of the shale analysts. This is a good post to read, bookmark, and save. It's only going to be available for 30 days or so before it's archived.

Some excerpts:
  • the comparison across the three well groups shows that based on production test data, SandRidge's fourth quarter promises to show a recovery from the worrisomely weak third quarter
  • SandRidge conducts its typical 24-hour production test about three weeks after the date of the well's first production date (although the test may occur as early as ten days or as late as two months after the first production). While the majority of the wells are likely to have "cleaned up" by the time of the test, some may still have significant amounts of frac fluids flowing back. Chokes and flow regimes (free flowing vs. gas lift vs. pumping) differ from well to well. As a result, the test rate represents an imperfect and "noisy" indicator of the well's early productivity. Further complicating the story is the high variability of decline profiles exhibited by wells in the Mississippian. The bottom line, the correlation between the well's production test rate (or any IP rate, for that matter) and the EUR is imperfect
  • latest well data indicates that SandRidge is actively experimenting with open hole completions in the Mississippian. The company used open hole completions in ~60% of the sample's wells that came on production in Oklahoma during the November-December period (18 open hole completions of the 31 wells total, using the Q4 sample data)
  • open hole completions in the context of the Mississippian play have attracted significant attention in industry and financial press. There are several valid arguments that make this approach conceptually intriguing as a potential solution for some of the challenges encountered in the Mississippian play. Among the primary benefits quoted is the ability to minimize damage to the fracture-rich carbonate rock from the cementing job. Reduced well cost is another benefit (the approach may be particularly effective in cutting costs in those situations where the log data obtained during drilling indicates poor rock quality and an expensive completion is no longer justified) 
And then this:
However, a detailed review of SandRidge's production test data does not provide clear evidence that the method leads to better well performance.