Locator: 52052GOOG.
Note: be sure to know the difference between "generative AI" and "agentic AI."
- generative AI: notify me when my gate changes.
- agentic AI: I have a business meeting in San Francisco next week. You know what to do.
Stocks of interest -- pre-market:
- CVX: up 1.12%; up $2.57; trading at $231.77.
- AAPL: up 1.26%; up $4.23; trading at $348.16
- GOOG: down 10% in pre-market trading
- MSFT: up 2.96%; up $15.54; trading at $546.55
This is what really got the market and "Fast Money" panelists (CNBC) excited yesterday:GOOG's earnings -- chatbots (personalized search) are cannibalizing Google's core business --
- for Google, this is not good
- personalized search is far from mature; perhaps this is the first six months that personalized search has really caught on; at the bottom of the S-curve, far to the left?
- but that's not even the big story.
This is the big story.
Remember: Google was one of the original "mag 7." Overnight, GOOG has dropped below $4 trillion market cap. AAPL remains above $5.02 trillion market cap.
This is the banner headline over at CNBC this morning:
Alphabet earnings miss reflects first real sign that AI is taking a bite out of search.
I've always considered "AI" as it is used on the web as a very, very sophisticated use of "machines" using "search" to formulate answers, but investors are clearly differentiating between "search" and "AI."
And that makes sense: Machines are solving incredibly challenging math problems that have not been solved. AI is not providing solutions to incredibly difficult math problems by looking for the solutions using "search." They are solving the problems "on their own." But there's also a difference between solving math problems and analyzing data. And there's a difference when machines can interpret IRS rules and come up with best ways to manage finances. This is all more than sophisticated search. It will be interesting how "investors" will be able to invest/trade when "prediction markets" intersect with agentic AI.
How fast are we moving? Over at the wiki entry for AI, the word "agentic" is found only once, and it's fond in the bibliography/notes. Link here. Link: https://share.google/aimode/MrPrj8fiBHtA1OjHG.
Link here. Link: https://share.google/aimode/H7uR2lDxmQZU9CW5U.
Disclaimer: I may be completely wrong how I understand this but this is how I see it.
SI query: market share?
Reply: link here. Link: https://share.google/aimode/yKDD2c2AiXfZmBhdO.
I'm not going to post all that data but clearly Alphabet's / Google's "legacy system" is coming to an end as we know it. Biggest threats: Facebook's / META's Muse Spark and Apple's Safari, though these two operate differently. Having said that, it is really, really hard to predict how this will play out. Short term, Apple is in cat-bird seat having invested "almost nothing" into personalized AI search compared to what the other hyperscalers have done.
It appears Shay Boloor may have been wrong or I've misunderstood him. Link here. Earlier this year, he posted:
A key insight most people miss:
- hyperscalers do not fear competition from each other.
- they fear capacity denial at choke points.
In hindsight, that appears wrong, or it was misunderstood.
Once inside Facebook, folks no longer have to leave Facebook to "do" personalized search" (chatbot searches) -- that's huge. Folks, once inside Facebook, no longer have to leave Facebook to get the Google Gemini experience.
Forgetting about just looking at Meta's Muse Spark for the moment:
GOOG is down almost 11% in pre-market trading -- 6:28 a.m. CT, October 29, 2026. Meanwhile, MSFT is up 2% and AAPL is up 1.3%; up $4.51 per share. Not trivial. META is up 1%, up $6 / share -- if anything, META is being held back because of its CAPEX.
Again, see the disclaimer for this blog. This whole topic can be so confusing and it's moving so quickly.
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Disclaimer
Briefly:
I am
inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front
of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it
comes to the Bakken.
I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. Disclaimer:
this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial,
job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read
here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
If anything on any of my
posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them. Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. And
now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things
Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial
revolution. I've
now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately
exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM.
Nothing on this site should be seen as recommendations for the general
public. On the other hand, I have no problem if members of my extended
family "see" recommendations I might be making - but only members of my
extended family, limited to my children and my grandchildren.Longer version here.
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What Comes Next?
Not too long ago, for investors, the concern was all about shortages and chokepoints (chips, memory, etc). In fact, it now appears that concerns about shortages and chokepoints was a "tactical" problem to be solved; How to move from "legacy search" to "agentic AI" models was the "strategic" (and now existential) problem.
Link here. Link: https://share.google/aimode/L3UAXb30tNq9gvalx.
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The Difference Between Generative AI and Agentic AI
One last comment before I have to go (my flight is boarding): the difference between generative AI and agentic AI:
- GENERATIVE AI: notify me when my gate changes.
- AGENTIC AI: I have a business meeting in San Francisco next week. You know what to do / what I need.
Link here. Link: https://share.google/aimode/0i8jnebY4TExAF7wL.
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Hanging Out At DFW
While waiting for my flight at DFW, I hung out at an "empty" location at the intersection of several corridors. I was the only traveler in this fairly large, open space.
Shortly after arriving, three folks with DFW ID badges arrived and settled in -- one male, one scarfed female, and one un-scarfed female. The scarfed female departed shortly after arriving. All three spoke Farsi. Over the course of an hour, no less than six other low-wage Farsi-speaking DFW employees arrived at the same location -- and all knew each other and all spoke with the unscarfed woman. The conversations were social, friendly, "how are you doing" conversations. The male appeared to think he was in control, but in fact the unscarfed woman was in control. She was on her smart phone the whole time. This was her tech support: two smart phones (they appeared to be Android); one classic flip phone, like the old Nokia flip phone I used to have; and two mini iPads. The male had no tech support, not even a phone.
