Tuesday, July 15, 2025

June, 2025, Inflation -- July 15, 2025

Locator: 48740INFLATION.

Link here.

Compared to the numbers in the same month in 2022, these numbers are not bad at all.

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The Book Page

No, I do not have this book. But I'm watching for it -- at an affordable price or through a library.

Tag:  political history of the Arameans; K Lawson Younger, Jr. publication date, October 7, 2016.

Zavanna With Four New Permits In Glass Bluff -- July 15, 2025

Locator: 48739B.

Epstein: Trump, et al, has let the Epstein story become the top story on the NBC Nightly News. Not good. 

Iraq: deepening natural gas crisis supply. I was completely unaware. Trump continues to redraw the maps in the Mideast. 

Iran: deepening natural gas crisis. I was completely unaware. Not getting the coverage one might expect. X is particularly quiet.

This appears to be a very, very big story. Something suggests the 12-day war may have taken out a lot more natural gas assets in Iran than we were led to believe.
This is probably hyperbole but everything suggests Iran is about ready to implode.
More likely, Iran becomes another North Korea, but worse.
Recommend: ask ChatGPT.
According to ChatGPT, Iran has cut its gas deliveries by over half -- from roughly 55 mcm/day to 25 mcm/day, resulting in an immediate shortfall of 3,800 - 6,000 megawats of power production in Iraq. Gas-fired plants are faltering, Iraq is struggling to meet demand, especially during heatwaves, causing rolling blackouts. See this story over at oilprice.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $66.82.

Active rigs: 30.

Four new permits: #42125 - #42128, inclusive:

  • Operator: Zavanna
  • Field: Glass Bluff (McKenzie County)
  • Comments:
    • Zavanna has permits for four Beth wells, NESE 4-151-103, 
      • to be sited 1913 / 2003 FSL and 289 FEL.

Market -- July 15, 2025

Locator: 48738MARKET.

See disclaimer.

BNY: one-on-one with Jim Cramer today. BNY is the first bank to deploy an AI-supercomputer and has 50+ AI-enabled solutions in production. This simply tells me how much farther "we" have to go with regard to AI. Increases its dividend by 13%.

These guys -- CNBC analysts -- are a whole lot smarter than I am. But some thoughts regarding today's meme with regard to the market:

  • the meme: Dow falls 300 points on earnings, inflation concerns; Nvidia boosts Nasdaq.

Rambling comments:

  • Nvidia news boosts NVDA. NVDA share price is boosting the NASDAQ. Subtle distinctions. Or perhaps not so subtle. 
    • JPM news should have boosted JPM stock; it did not. So JPM is not boosting the Dow, even though JPM news should have.
  • Inflation? As far as I'm concerned -- it's still a "Goldilocks" story. If Biden/Kamala were still in office, the media would be raving how the administration is bringing down inflation / has brought down inflation, but with Trump, the media hates to admit the obvious.
  • Inflation: has nothing to do with tariffs. Too long do discuss, but IYKYK. Considering the economic expansion, one could argue it's amazing how tame inflation really is. In fact, increased productivity gains may offset other causes of inflation.
  • Is the Dow down today because of inflation fears? LOL. The Dow is down because folks that know are pivoting from legacy companies to technology. 

Exhibit A:

  • GM, down today, when CRWV is soaring.
  • BRK-B: since April 2, 2015, BRK-B is down 13%.

Speaking of GM, there was a Reuters report today updating GM's updated plans. Link here.

  • there is so much information, it's hard to keep track of it all, but for me, two takeaways:
  • slowly but surely GM is getting out of the EV business, or certainly positioning itself to do so, if necessary; and, they need to be taking these steps now, because once the decision is made, it takes awhile to pivot:
  • the new gasoline-powered vehicles won't be available until two years from now -- mid-2027

The big question: what is Ford doing? From what little I know, Ford, once having made the decision to go all-electric, has not yet changed its position.

Rambling -- July 15, 2025

Locator: 48737ARCHIVES.

See this post: Dallas keeps growing.

When I read that article, I thought there was nowhere to go in the Dallas area except three or four cities north of the city. In fact, there is still so much open space on the north side of Ft Worth -- the metroplex is just getting started.

That OpenAI / CoreWeave -- Denton, TX -- announcement yesterday, or whenever it was, was just the next announcement.

Sophia and I drove to Flower Mound today. She's kayaking on this side of the lake today. I had not been to Flower Mound in a long, long time. Wow, it's gorgeous. And so much room for development. The city has a reputation for requiring only large lots for single-unit homes; I assume that attitude prevails. Lots of hobby horse -- literally "hobby horse" -- farms for teenage girls. LOL. 

We're at Rockledge Park today; really, really nice shoreline; lives up to its name. Rock ledge. Incredible location for landscape painting.  

I'm at a coffee shop for the morning while Sophia kayaks. I'll pick her up sometime after noon or so. She is really in her element. 

Her oldest sister is in Seattle, Washington, for the week.

Her older sister in in Peru on an archaeological dig with a team from Stanford University.  

Who would have ever guessed.

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The Book Page

The Story of Semiconductors, John Orton, c. 2004. 

Whatever notes I take will be here.

After just a few pages into this book this is the first takeaway: basic science in the whole field of semiconductors is amazing. Despite all the strides since the 1950s (maybe earlier) it's amazing how much seems to be unknown / unexplained when it comes to electricity. The physics of elemental particles is absolutely "strange." My first exposure to the strangeness of quantum theory began in high school chemistry with Mr Ceglowski with "electron shells" and especially "tunneling." And one gets the feeling, physicists really have a lot more to learn. 

Remember how we used to talk about the probability of "finding" an electron in any given shell in single atom? It turns out that in a crystal (conducting / semiconducting), it's no longer about the probability of a single electron in any given shell around any given atom, but rather, the probability of an electron anywhere in the entire crystal. 

But I now understand the history of semiconductors:

  • telegraph, wired
  • radio, wireless
  • vacuum tubes
  • insert miracle here
  • computer as we know it

I'll never understand it, but I'll read and re-read about it until I die.

The semiconductor story truly begins with copper mining / refining in Assyria in 3,000 BC, or thereabouts.

I just finished this book: Assyria: The and Fall of the World's First Empire, Eckart Frahm, c. 2023.

META: Massive AI Data Center Announcements -- July 15, 2025

Locator: 48736META.

META: Hyperion Data Center (Richard Parish, Louisiana); Prometheus (New Albany, Ohio)

  • Hyperion: massive; 5 gigawatts; 2 gigawatts online by 2030; four million square feet across 2,250 acres
  • Prometheus: massive; 5 gigawatts; to be associated with a small modular nuclear reactor, 25 megawatts electricity (MWe); company changing its name from Gen4 Energy to Gen4 Module; footprint probably similar to Hyperion's. Bullish for natural gas.