Netflix -- Not Ready For Prime Time -- January 26, 2025

Locator: 44768NETFLIX.

In 2022, Netflix shares plunged 51%; now, NFLX the hottest play in investing. There's a lesson there somewhere.

 

A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted -- January

Locator: 44767BLOOMBERG.

UN climate change scam: Trump pulls US out of this scam. Bloomberg will step in and fund it all. Interestingly enough, no dollar amounts provided and the press release suggests that Bloomberg won't go it alone; will call in other donors to help pay.

US foreign aid: all foreign aid stopped effective immediately including aid to Ukraine pending review. Two exceptions: military aid to Israel and Egypt and emergency food aid. I wonder if Bloomberg will step in to fund US foreign aid that is affected.  

McDonald’s fries: I’m old enough to remember when and why McDonald’s switched from beef tallow to vegetable oil for their fries. 1990. And the “new” fries were awful though we got used to them over time. Now, beef tallow is coming back in vogue. Steak ‘n Shake apparently will be among the first to switch back to beef tallow. Prime influencer? None other than RFK, Jr.

Woke no longer: Target.

Coke:

Sacking 17 inspector generals: it's nothing new. Reagan did it. Biden did it. I think the formal
30-day notice to the US Congress will be dated today. At worse, thirty days from now, those fired will all receive 30 days of back pay, and resumes updated to show they held office through February 24. And then everyone moves on. Here's the list.

Moats: these twelve companies. Link here. The twelve: META, TSLA, NVDA, PLTN, TSM, ASML, AMZN, AXON, NET, AVGO, ISRG, AAPL.

Focus on dividends: it's hard to believe I missed this, but I don't recall posting it. OKE announced a 4% increase in its quarterly dividend, and for those whose cost basis for OKE has come down significantly, that 4% is a much more significant increase. Whoo-hoo!

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Presidential Spouses

Melania: is it just me or does the First Lady look more radiant than ever and seeming to enjoy her second time around? By the way, whom does she seem to be channeling? Think Audrey Hepburn in Breakfast at Tiffany’s. The hat tipped me off.

Michelle: lots of stories on X about the Obama couple. I have no idea, but it's often said, where there’s smoke, there’s fire. In this case, I guess the smoke would be social media, and the fire would be a certain  Hollywood actress. As long as she gets to keep her four houses, including the one in Hawaii, I doubt Michelle cares a whole lot, one way or the other.

Jill: just think. Michelle and Melania both had eight years in the White House. Jill: four years with a lot of that on the Delaware beach.

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Welcome To My Life

From The New Yorker:

Healthy Fast Food: Wendy's, McDonald's, And Burger King All Beat In-N-Out; Whataburger #5 -- January 25, 2025

Locator: 44768FASTFOOD.

Here's the list: https://www.foxnews.com/food-drink/top-5-fast-food-burgers-health-says-new-study. Apparently the survey is found at the Delish website.

• #5: Whataburger Jr.: went last week for the first time in ten years? No longer impressed.
• #4: In-N-Out hamburger -- many say they get the In-N-Out hamburger and then go to McDonald's to pick up the fries; the last time for me, maybe last year? I forget; no desire to go again. The fries are a deal breaker.
• #3: McDonald's classic hamburger (my favorite) -- it's not just the burger, it's also the fries and the all-around experience.
• #2: Burger King Whopper Jr: "never" go; I guess I've been there once or twice years ago when it was only choice after dropping off Olivia for soccer practice.
• #1: Wendy's Jr hamburger: I last had it decades ago; no interest in going again.

At Delish, they add #7 and #6, also:

• #7: Shake Shack Hamburger; it has the most protein of all seven picks, with a whopping 25 grams; there's one on the same block as our Schwab broker, but I've never even thought about going to Shake Shack.
• #6: Culver's ButterBurger: I've never even seen a Culver's much less been there. The nearest Culver's to us is in Flower Mound, TX, 9.6 miles; and, Lewisville, TX, 18.7 miles. Technically the latter is in The Colony and the drive would take 40 minutes if I didn't want to pay tolls (fastest: 27 minutes). 

Comments:

• Whataburger, In-N-Out, McDonald's, and Wendy's is in our immediate neighborhood.I know I've seen a Burger King in the area but don't know where.
• Shake Shake, as noted, is on same block as the Schwab we go to, but we only go once a month to Schwab.
• Culver's: way, way too far away.
• price for a Cutter's: between $4.29 and $6.49.
• McDonald's Classic hamburger: $2.19. 

I guess this is why I never go to Shake Shack, but wow, I bet they are really, really good:

This is just for the hamburger. Fries, drink, extra. 

Didn't see Five Guys on the list. There's a Five Guys within walking distance. I've been there one, when my brother-in-law from California visited some years ago. He's a fast food connoisseur. His favorite: the Costco hot dog combo: $1.50.

Week 4: January 20, 2025 -- January 26, 2025

Locator: 44766TOPSTORIES.

Southern California Fires: continue to burn out of control; new fires almost daily. President Trump visits both North Carolina and southern California, Friday, January 24, 2025, day 4 of his presidency.

Hegspeth: confirmed with a JD-Vance-tie-breaking vote for SecDefense. Senator McConnell forces tie-breaking vote when he surprises everyone and votes "no" on Hegspeth.

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Top Stories

Geoff Simon's quick connects. 

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The First 100 Days
January 20, 2025 - April 30, 2025

First Week of Trump’s Presidency

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The Top Stories

Top story of the week:

• fires continue: southern California
• said to be worse in history
• Trump schools local officials on politics during a disaster
  

Top international non-energy story:

• Colombia initially refuses to take back Colombian criminals being deported by US; Trump hits Colombia with tariffs, visas; Colombia president caves; will take back his Colombian criminals on Colombian presidential plane.
  

Top international energy story:

• WTI drops below $75 based on Trump's promises, goals, policies -- "drill, baby, drill"
  

Top national non-energy story:

• Trump stories continue to dominate political stories
  

Top national energy story:

• Hegspeth confirmed as SecDefense

Focus on fracking: current link here. Generally updated late Sunday night.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

• Basin Electric announces plan to build 1,470-megawatt generation facility in western North Dakota
• to cost $4 billion

Hegspetch CONFIRMED -- Tie-Breaking Vote By JD Vance -- Mitch McConnell Votes "No" On Hegspeth? -- Noem Confirmed -- DHS -- Updated January 25, 2025

Locator: 44766TRUMP.

 Updates 

Saturday, January 25, 2025: great op-ed in Fox this morning: https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/david-marcus-gop-trio-missed-whole-point-secretary-defense-pete-hegseth.

Saturday, January 25, 2025: in rare weekend vote, Kristi Noem confirmed as Secretary, Department of Homeland Security. 

It looks like SD Senator John Thune surprised everyone and held an early vote on Kristi Noem -- easily won -- many Democrats broke rank to vote for Noem. I believe the vote was 59 - 34, which is a landslide when you think about it. Link here to NPR.  I used to worry about "qualifications" for all these presidential appointments.

No longer. After Biden's appointments over the past four years it dawned on me, these appointments, like ambassador appointees, are nothing but political figureheads and a reward for supporting the president with expectations that support will continue.

With regard to qualifications, the bar was as low as it could get with the nominations of Pete Buttigieg, Jennifer Granholm, and Sonja Sotomayor (to just name the most obvious) in previous administrations.

This all became clear to me when reading hysterical social media comments that said these appointees would not know how to run large organizations, and that social security checks would not go out, military pay checks would be delayed, and Medicare payments would stop. LOL. The 20-year and 30-year bureaucrats manage the mundane activities and most of it is on "automatic pilot." In fact, the departments probably run more smoothly with the "acting director" in charge.

9:49 p.m. CT: now that I've had a few minutes to absorb all of this and watching Senator Warren on the US Senate floor during the vote, it is clearly one of the worst days ever for the Democrats, if they are being honest with themselves. 

President Trump schooled the Democrats in control of California while Los Angeles burns, and then his most controversial nominee is confirmed.

Two of Trump's nominees may not get confirmed but I don't find RFK, Jr or Tulsi Gabbard controversial. They are non-entities.

But Hegspeth, incredibly [fill in the blank] .... and ... yet he is confirmed. Even when the "old man" -- Mitch McConnell votes against Hegspeth.

This was a terrible, terrible day for the Democrats; Trump had one of his many best days.

Los Angeles is not burning because of protests against Trump or civil rights or George Floyd (as predicted) but rather because of incredible ineptness by the folks who have ruled California for decades.

It's too bad Reagan wasn't here to see this; he would have predicted all this. Donald Trump knows more about Los Angeles than most Americans but he is not a native.

9:05 p.m. CT: I just checked The Hill. I must have been watching a tape-delay by just a few minutes. JD Vance casts vote to break the tie. Hegspeth confirmed. Link here.

My hunch: Mitch McConnell knew exactly what he was doing, as did everyone else.

I wonder if JD Vance would have shown up had a tie-breaking vote not been necessary.

Rumsfeld under Gerald Ford, at 43, was the youngest to be nominated / confirmed. Hegspeth is 44. 

9:02 p.m. CT: JD Vance just showed up.

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Original Note

At least that's what I heard, very clearly, and ran the tape again to confirm. Yes, that's accurate: Mitch McConnell voted no. Being reported by and confirmed by The Hill. Either he knows that his vote will not sink Hegspeth or he knows it will. Mitch McConnell is probably the smartest politician in the room. 

According to the same source: 

Hegseth is expected to be confirmed. GOP Sens. Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Susan Collins (Maine) were the only Republicans to vote against him in Thursday’s procedural vote. Hegseth can afford three GOP defections if all Democrats vote “no.”

Was the third “no” vote McConnell's? Will that be the last of three defections by the GOP?  If this holds, this suggests to me that at least two others (not including Hegspeth) will not be confirmed: RFK, Jr.,  (HHS) and Tulsi Gabbard (Director, National Intelligence). The first one is always the hardest.

Only two Republicans in the vote yesterday voted NOT to proceed with the vote: Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski. 

Once having voted, I'm not sure if senators can change their votes. Yes, they can. See this link. Is the master of politics playing games? I still don't see JD Vance on the floor (8:39 p.m. CT). I think voting started around 8:00 p.m. CT. Wow, there sure is a lot of standing around, nothing being done.

It must be getting near the end. More and more US senators up and about, milling around near the front of the room. 

I don't see JD Vance in the room.