Thursday, November 7, 2024

Rivian -- A Loss Of $38K On Each Vehicle Delivered -- The Company That Can't Shoot Straight -- 3Q24

Locator: 48730RIVIAN.

Updates

November 10, 2024:

Original Post

Just reported, three minutes ago.

  • a miss on the top and bottom lines. 
  • 3Q24 revenue, a huge miss: $874 million vs $990 million forecast.
    • a loss of $39,130 per vehicle
  • that's $9,000 worse than 3Q224 (last year)
  • a loss off 99 cents vs a loss of 92 cents expected
  • guidance: wider loss for full year than originally forecast -- trending in wrong direction 
    • in interview with CNBC: CEO blames everything, including supply change shortages (plural; below, it was singular)
    • to me, sounds like incredibly poor execution
    • CEO calls it "noise." 
    • avoids answering finance questions; pivots back to building a better truck; focused on customer;

From a month ago:


Revenue drops for first time since IPO, link here:

  • due to short supply of a part, Rivian last month slashed its full-year production forecast to between 47,000 and 49,000 vehicles, from its earlier projection of 57,000 units;
  • 50,000 vehicles x $39,000 = 50 x 40 x 10^6 = 50 x 40 x million = 2,000 million = $2 billion

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Lucid

Link here.



Analysis: Kamala Harris Loss -- WSJ -- In Michigan, Jill Stein Was A Spoiler -- Ensured Trump's Win -- NYT -- November 7, 2024

Locator: 48729B.

Link here. 

This is the oft-repeated meme in every analysis of Ms Harris losing the race: "having raised $1 billion she lost to a convicted felon."

Wow! How in the world does that happen? A billion dollars and she loses to a convicted felon. 

The other meme: having only 107 days to campaign did not give her enough time to introduce herself to the American public. Say what? She ran for the Democratic presidential nomination back in 2019 / 2020 and has been the nation's vice president for four years. And now ... now ... her apologists tell us she didn't have enough time to introduce herself. As czar of immigration she didn't even visit the southern border -- a great place to have introduced herself -- except on one occasion, late in the game. 

Go to YouTube and google Kamala Sky News.

Where Trump Won

From The New York Times: 

  • Florida: Trump won Miami-Dade County, which has many Latino voters. It is the first time a Republican presidential candidate has done so since 1988. 
  • Texas: Support for Trump in the border counties of South Texas helped him win the state by 14 percentage points, based on the latest count. He won by only six points in 2020. Starr County went to a Republican for the first time since 1896. 
  • New York City: The city has moved right each time Trump has run — by 26 percentage points overall since 2016. The shift was pronounced in parts of the Bronx, Queens and southern Brooklyn.
  • Michigan: In Dearborn, Michigan, a majority-Arab American city, frustration with the war in Gaza helped Trump win with 42 percent of the vote. 
    • Harris received 36 percent, while Jill Stein of the Green Party received 18 percent.
    • Did Jill Stein prevent Harris from winning? Yes, probably, most likely. Those who voted for the Green Party certainly weren't going to vote for Trump.

In this list, The New York Times conveniently ignored Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia.

The NYT says Trump did not win in a landslide. Well, that's some consolation for the elites.

If the GOP takes the US House, yes, I would call it a landslide. 

But at the end of the day, Kamala Harris was lousy at campaigning, and unable to articulate a message.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $71.26.

Friday, November 8, 2024: 9 for the month; 69 for the quarter, 583 for the year

  • None.

Thursday, November 7, 2024: 9 for the month; 69 for the quarter, 583 for the year

  • None.

RBN Energy: Trident Pipeline would be a game-changer for Gulf Coast LNG terminals.

One of the most prevalent stories in the U.S. natural gas market over the past decade has been soaring associated gas production in the Permian Basin and the question of what to do with it. Numerous pipelines have been built over the years connecting Permian gas to demand regions, and more are in the works.

The largest source of incremental demand is LNG exports, mostly from the Sabine River area at the Texas/Louisiana border. The catch is, getting Permian gas past Houston to the banks of the Sabine presents significant challenges. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss Kinder Morgan’s proposed Trident Pipeline — an attempt to overcome those challenges — and explain why this new outlet would alter gas pricing and flow dynamics in the broader Gulf Coast region. 

We at RBN have written about existing and planned gas pipelines out of the Permian many times in the past, recently cataloguing a number of proposed lines in Come Dancing. While that piece primarily covered projects that originate in West Texas, we also snuck in WhiteWater Midstream’s Blackfin Pipeline, which was to be constructed entirely in the eastern half of Texas, bringing gas from Colorado County (near one terminus of the four-year-old Permian Highway Pipeline) north around Houston, ending in the area just north of Beaumont, where other lines would bring gas to LNG terminals in the Sabine River area. Also on the list from that blog was Energy Transfer’s proposed Warrior Pipeline, which would bring gas from the Permian to the area just south of Dallas-Fort Worth. Gas could then move toward the Sabine River through existing intrastate systems (and potentially new ones).

Also from RBN Energy: ONEOK Completes Acquisition of Medallion Midstream

ONEOK has finalized its previously announced acquisition of Medallion Midstream from Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) for approximately $2.6 billion in cash.

Medallion was previously the largest privately held crude oil gathering and transportation system in the Permian’s Midland Basin, featuring more than 1,200 miles of crude oil gathering pipelines (blue lines in below map) with a capacity of approximately 1.3 MMb/d and crude oil storage of around 1.5 MMbbl. (The Medallion Delaware Basin system — green lines covered by red X in below map — is owned by Energy & Minerals Group and is not included in this acquisition).

The transaction significantly expands ONEOK’s crude oil footprint in the Permian. The Medallion Midland Basin system feeds crude oil to hubs in Midland, Colorado City and Crane. In our Crude Oil Permian Report, we track these receipts, which feed ONEOK’s long-haul Permian-to-Houston pipelines — BridgeTex and Longhorn — as well as other third party pipelines.

This deal by ONEOK complements its $18.8 billion acquisition of Magellan Midstream, which we covered in Tulsa Time.

That deal created the second-largest U.S. midstream company by market capitalization and the fifth-largest by enterprise value.

In addition, as of October 15, ONEOK is the managing member of EnLink after acquiring GIP’s controlling interest for approximately $3.3 billion.

QCOM -- Pre-Market -- November 7, 2024

Locator: 48728QCOM.


 

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
  • Longer version here.

Wednesday, November 6, 2024

Congratulatory Notes And Phone Calls Flooding Trump's Mar-A-Lago -- November 6, 2024

Locator: 48727STRONG.

All of a sudden, "everyone" wants to get a headline / photo-op congratulating Trump on his victory. Justin Trudeau was one of the first. I think Netanyahu was the first. The list now goes on forever. Amazing how fast things change. 

My hunch: the Trump train has left the station. There are two groups of movers and shakers, global leaders right now. Those already on the Trump train; those who have missed the train. 

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Flashback

This was from June, 2024. 

The Clinton quote says it all.

Pat Gelsinger -- News -- November 6, 2024

Locator: 48726INTC.

Tag: INTC, Intel, 18A

Times of India. Link here.

Reuters. Link here.

AI generated:
AI Overview
Intel's 18A fabrication technology is on track for a 2025 launch, with high-volume production scheduled to begin in the second half of that year. Here's some more information about the status of Intel 18A: 
  • Yield
    Intel says its 18A fabrication technologies are producing good-quality chips. However, some industry experts are concerned about Intel's ability to achieve good yields, which could put the company at a disadvantage to competitors like TSMC. 
  • Products
    Intel's first two 18A products, the Panther Lake AI PC client processor and the Clearwater Forest server processor, have powered on and booted operating systems. 
  • Customers
    Intel has secured AWS as a customer for its 18A process. 
  • PDK
    Intel released its 18A Process Design Kit (PDK) 1.0 in July 2024, which allowed partners to update their tools and design flows. 
  • Roadmap
    Intel 18A is one of the final nodes in the company's "5 Nodes in 4 Years" roadmap. It's the first node to include Intel's PowerVia power delivery system and RibbonFET gate-all-around transistor architecture.
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Problems?

From September 9, 2024:

Link here.

Disappointing financial results. A 15% layoff of its workforce. Restructuring and cost-reduction plans which may include the sale of FPGA unit Altera and freezing its USD 32 billion German fab project. Now, there seems to be more bad news on the way for Intel, as its advanced nodes, specifically 18A and 20A, reportedly run into trouble.

Broadcom Regards 18A Not Ready for High-volume Production


According to Reuters and The Verge, Broadcom’s initial tests with Intel’s 18A (1.8nm-class) process did not meet expectations, creating additional pressure on the semiconductor giant’s efforts to catch up with TSMC in the foundry sector. The reports note that Broadcom tested Intel’s 18A by producing wafers with typical design patterns. However, its engineers and executives were said to be disappointed with the results, regarding the process as “not ready for high-volume production.”

A Broadcom spokesperson informed Reuters that the company has not yet completed its evaluation of Intel’s 18A, indicating that the assessment is still in progress.

The 18A node plays a crucial role in Intel’s roadmap, as it has been working on the process for years, targeting to begin mass production next year, with major clients including Microsoft, according to the Verge.

However, another report from Tom’s Hardware also suggests that a defect density below 0.5 defects per square centimeter is typically seen as a positive outcome, which Intel may have already accomplished. Citing CEO Pat Gelsinger’s previous remarks, the report notes that Intel is now below 0.4 d0 defect density, which can be considered a healthy process.

20 A Cancelled: Not a Bad Idea for Cost-reduction?


Another latest bad news, though, is that Intel announced that it will no longer use its own 20A process for the upcoming Arrow Lake processors aimed at the consumer market. In its own words, the Arrow Lake processor family will be built primarily using external partners and packaged by Intel Foundry.

The unexpected move, according to Intel, is made in order to focus resources on Intel 18A, helping the company to optimize its engineering investments.