Wednesday, October 30, 2024

Wednesday -- Hump Day -- October 30, 2024

Locator: 48677B.

Stories to watch today:

  • Eli Lilly
  • UBS  
    • smashes 3Q24 expectations with $1.4 billion in profit
    • EPS: 43 cents/share
    • revenue of $19.31 billion
    • revenue net of interest expense was $12.33 billion topping forecasts
  • Volkswagen
    • 60% fall in profits; sales in China slump: The Guardian.
    • profit falls 42%: CNBC.
    • company faces battle in talk of closing three plants in Germany;
  • Apple's Mac Mini
  • EV air taxis
  • as always, the Mag-7 
    • Ken Fisher and the Mag-7
    • Corning and ATT: $1 billion fiber deal
      • ticker GLW: up 5% yesterday; one-year: 84%
      • aggressive growth plan
      • two largest fiber factories in the world are in North Carolina; also lowest cost; and both are owned by Corning; tariffs can only help them; tariffs won't hurt them
      • physics: fiber beats satellite
      • Corning fiber competitors
    • rule of 40
      • AppEconomy
    • MSFT earnings
  • ONEOK
  • Ford CEO and his favorite car
  • SBUX; HQ in Seattle, the boss lives in San Diego; has ordered his folks to be "in the office" three days a week; 
  • SNAP: up $10 / share in pre-market trading
  • REDDIT soaring in pre-market trading; up over 20%
  • PR PA PP
  • this week's econ numbers
    • GDP with a 3-handle; and some (not all) analysts see growth stronger than the number 
    • ADP report and wage data
  • 10-year Treasury: 4.220% 

Jargon:

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $67.81.

Thursday, October 31, 2024: 60 for the month; 60 for the quarter, 574 for the year

  • None.
Wednesday, October 30, 2024: 60 for the month; 60 for the quarter, 574 for the year
  • 40217, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-7H,
  • 40209, conf, Grayson Mill, Hovland 26-35 6H,

One well of interest:

  • 40209, conf, Grayson Mill, Hovland 26-35 6H, South Tobacco Garden:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20242472441893
7-20243298454086
6-20241526719398

RBN Energy: access to uninterrupted power just one factor in siting data centers.

The prospect of a massive buildout of data centers across the U.S. has utilities preparing for a surge in power demand. And while access to an uninterrupted power supply is a critical factor for companies deciding where to build a data center, it’s not the only variable — power prices and proximity to customers also play a major role. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at where data centers are deployed across the U.S., the major factors that determine where a facility gets built, and how the sudden expansion is playing out in the major U.S. technology hubs. 

As we wrote in Storm Front, a data center is a facility housing many networked computers that work together to process, store and share data. Most major tech companies — such as Amazon, Google and Meta — rely heavily upon data centers as a central component in delivering online services. Most relevant to our discussion today, data centers are energy-intensive, consuming anywhere from 10 to 50 times the energy per floor space of a typical commercial office building, with electrical demand at larger facilities ranging from 100 to 300 megawatts (MW), or enough to power tens of thousands of homes.

Tuesday, October 29, 2024

Hess With Four New Permits In Williams County -- October 29, 2024

Locator: 48676B.

WTI: $67.69.

Active rigs: 42.

Four new permits, #41290 - #41293, inclusive:

  • Operators: Hess
  • Fields: Dollar Joe (Williams)
  • Comments;
    • Hess has permits for three GO-Morgan wells and one GO-Layton well, lot 4,section 18-156-97;, 
      • to be sited 385 FSL and between 840 FWL and 972 FWL

Three permits canceled:

  • CLR: two Thronson permits and a Sorenson permit, all on the same pad, SESE 21-154-94; Mountrail County.

China: Growing Electricity Demand Despite A Poor Economy -- October 29, 2024

Locator: 48675CHINA.

China:

  • despite a incredibly poor economy (and possibly getting worse despite government stimulus) electricity demand continues to grow -- and grow significantly -- beneficiary? Coal plants.

From Bloomberg today:

Surging Chinese power demand is raising questions about whether the booming renewables sector can keep pace and what that means for targets to cap greenhouse gas emissions.

The country’s coal plants are the largest contributors to global warming, and robust electricity use is prolonging their lifespan even as the nation adds record amounts of wind and solar. Thermal generation is up 1.9% through September from a year earlier — although that would be much higher without clean energy picking up the slack.

During the same period, electricity consumption increased 7.9%, the highest since the post-Covid manufacturing boom of 2021. That year, the rise in demand was matched by strong growth, but this time the electron feast comes as the country struggles with a downbeat economy.

Power and growth have long been connected. Electricity usage, rail freight and bank lending comprise the Li Keqiang Index — named after a comment by the former premier that those metrics provided a more accurate reflection of the economy than reported gross domestic product figures.

Demand is on track to outperform GDP for a fifth straight year.

China is second only to Japan among major economies for electrification rates. Power accounted for 28% of its energy consumption in 2022, compared with 11% in 2000, as heating and transportation electrify. That puts more pressure on coal but is still good for the climate because it replaces less efficient fossil-fuel use.

The danger for the climate is new demand sources such as data centers and cooling. Manufacturing of air conditioners jumped 15% in China last year after record heat in 2022, while September’s hot weather sent residential energy use surging.

No one wants to deprive people of lifesaving cooling during more-frequent bouts of extreme heat. But if Chinese consumers keep guzzling electricity at this pace, it will mean the clean-energy revolution has even more work to do than previously believed.

And, of course, we haven't even mentioned India.

Apple Notes, NASDAQ, -- October 29, 2024

Locator: 48674MMF.

After the market close: 

  • GOOG must have reported nice earnings. After hours shares up over $6 / up about 4% and continuing to climb. Cloud revenue impresses. I assume that would be a reflection of AI.
  • AMD: haven't seen the report yet, but shares up 4% before the close; and, up another 1% after the close before earnings announced; later: someone must know something ... I haven't seen earnings yet, but AMD now goes negative, down 5%; great report, beats everywhere, but EPS exactly in-line and that results in AMD dropping as much as $10 / share; down around 5%. CEO exuberant in her comments. Not unexpected. After hours, AMD got crushed.
  • AMD: crushed after hours. Who needs to worry? Intel (INTC); the business of each is in the same sector (CPUs); Nvidia's sector? GPUs.
    • yes, I know, it's evolving
    • Nvidia has a huge moat and remain a year ahead of the competition with regard to GPU chips
    • Nvidia has the momentum; LDCs and other buyers of GPUs are not mixing and matching different makes of chips
  • Chipotle: mixed results. EPS beat but shares drop 6%.
  • First Solar: big miss and shares drop 6%.
  • Intel: buying opportunity -- said by some -- was July / August, 2024 -- some saw it and bought early at $30; others waited and got in at $18 -- for the archives; will compare with AMD at the one year mark.

Original Note

Note: what a great site to eat lunch. Watching national guard F-15s take off.  Still look as modern as ever. Amazing.

Market: this is amazing, also --  NASDAQ hits another all-time record -- AAPL is actually in the green today -- and AMD is up 3% / up $5 today ahead of earnings report after market closes today -- as long as I'm checking, INTC? Down.


Also amazing and completely inexplicable: with all the reading Charlie Munger did (plus all the other resources to which he.had access), how BRK completely missed the AI revolution, at least based on news stories. Of course, when the Mag-7 crash and burn, there will be a lot of "I-told-you-so" headlines. Whatever.

And then these headlines from CNBC online today:

  • consumer conference surges -- I'm sure this greatly disappoints and confuses Rick Santelli;
  • NASDAQ climbs to fresh record
  • Morgan Stanley CEO says the era of zero interest rates and inflation is over (that satisfies both sides)
  • zero interest rates never made sense but it certainly did great things for the economy
  • but what does he mean "the era of inflation" is over? But that's what CNBC reported

Apple / AAPL: link here. Revenue jump on Chinese demand?

Apple / AAPL: link here. Broadens manufacturing base in India.

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
  • Longer version here.

My Favorite Chart Update -- October 29, 2024

Locator: 48674MMF.

Updates

November 1, 2024: from ZeroHedge. Consider the source. Does it mean anything if no one else is talking about it? Or is this simply another ZeroHedge  post that will go nowhere? All I see in these charts is another argument for cutting rates. And the faster the better.

Original Post

Link here.

A $40-billion increase.