Oracle -- Huge, Huge Jump In Sales Forecast -- September 12, 2024

 Locator: 48575TECH.

Updates

September 13, 2024: same story as original post, but with more data -- in pre-market trading, ORCL up almost 6% this morning.

Oracle Corp said annual revenue will rise to at least $104 billion in fiscal 2029, an optimistic signal on the growth prospects of the software maker’s cloud infrastructure business.

Executive Vice President Doug Kehring delivered the forecast Thursday at Oracle’s annual briefing for financial analysts. Oracle also raised its sales outlook for fiscal 2026 to at least $66 billion from a prior target of $65 billion. On average analysts estimated revenue of $64.5 billion for 2026, according to a Bloomberg survey.

The Austin-based company, known for its database software, is focused on expanding its toehold in cloud infrastructure, which rents out computer power and storage to compete with Amazon.com Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc.’s Google. Oracle’s cloud has developed a reputation for success with generative artificial intelligence workloads — the company touted customers including including Reka and Elon Musk’s xAI.

 

Original Post 

Holy mackerel! I had just put my laptop away to relax a bit: watch Sophia at soccer practice and read awhile (see "book page" earlier). I made the mistake of checking the iPhone one last time and this popped up -- Oracle!

Are you kidding me! 

Everything, everywhere happening all at once.

I've always had a position in Oracle -- maybe started two decades ago -- I've long forgotten but about six months ago I started aggressively adding to that position -- Oracle just seemed under-priced, under-valued, forgotten compared to the magnificent seven. In fact, more on that later, perhaps. So, I've been excited about the Oracle headlines the last week or so.

Now tonight, link here:

Revenue of $66 billion is about $1.5 billion more than what analysts had forecast. What was revenue for most recent reporting period?

4 x $13.3 billion = $53.2 billion.

MRO Has A New Permit For Another Well In Its Prolific Bailey Oil Field -- September 12, 2024

Locator: 48574B.

From today's daily activity report:

• MRO has a permit for a Halcrow well, SWSW 9-145-93;
• 4113, MRO, Halcrow 14-9H, Bailey oil field, Dunn County;
  
• to be sited 615 FSL and 675 FWL;

The map:

Grayson Mill's New Permits For Lonnie, Bratcher, and Helling Wells in Ragged Butte -- September 12, 2024

Locator: 48573B.

From today's daily activity report:

• Grayson Mill has permits for two Helling wells, two Lonnie wells; and one Bratcher well, NWNW 15-151-101; 
• to be sited 349/350 FNL and between 300 FWL and 525 FWL;

The maps: the Lonnie, Bratcher, and Helling pads. The Lonnie wells run north to south; the Bratcher wells run south to north.

Thirteen New Permits; Three DUCs Reported As Completed -- September 12, 2024

Locator: 48572B.

Disclaimers apply. In a long note like this, there will be typographical and content errors. I will correct them if/when I find them.

Investing: how many times were we reminded of the following earlier this month?

A reminder: historically, the months of August and September are the worst months of the year for investors who hope to pay more for shares. 

 

And, then, of course, we have the rate cut coming, which is already "baked in."

Kroger: shares surged today -- Kroger is our favorite among four -- Kroger, Walmart, Tom Thumb/Albertsons, Target.

Cramer's last hour: first story -- Broadcom (AVGO), then Nvidia (NVDA)

• a lot of folks dumped the stock this past week when they panicked
• NVDA is up 16% this week

Broadcom: one of two companies that will profit the most from the new iPhone. Link here. Broadcom and Cirrus Logic. Broadcom and Cirrus are each found three times in the iPhone. 

Cirrus Logic will benefit from Apple using its parts for camera upgrades on the iPhone 16 series. 

"Positive implications" for Cirrus Logic include the iPhone 16 Pro upgrade to the tetraprism lens design, joining the Pro Max model. Cirrus Logic also likely will provide the haptics driver for the new camera control button and controllers for new Ultra Wide cameras across the iPhone 16 family.

Moderate and slightly positive implication for Analog Devices and Qualcomm, respectively.

But, and this is a biggie, Skyworks is seen losing RF content to Qualcomm this round.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacting (TSM) is producing the A18 and A18 Pro chips for the "16" lineup. TSM reported sales two days ago for the month of August; sales for the month of August were up 33% y/y keeping it on track to meet third-quarter targets.

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $68.97. Big jump today.

Active rigs: 40.

Thirteen new permits, #41123 - #41132, inclusive:

• Operators: Grayson Mill (5); Hunt; Whiting, MRO (2), Murex, Petro-Hunt (2), Zavanna.
• Fields: Ragged Butte (McKenzie); Alexandria (Divide); Glass Bluff (McKenzie); Bailey (Dunn); Alexander (McKenzie); and, Keene (McKenzie).
• Comments:
• Petro-Hunt has a permit for a USA well, NENW 25-153-96; 
• to be sited 332 FNL and 2021 FWL; 
• Petro-Hunt also has a permit for a Klevmoen Trust well, SESE 17-153-95; 
• to be sited SESE 17-153-95;
  
• Murex has a permit for LA-Riley Kyle, NWNE 25-151-101; 
• to be sited 295 FNL and 2000 FEL;
  
• MRO has a permit for a Halcrow well, SWSW 9-145-93; 
• to be sited 615 FSL and 675 FWL;
• MRO also has a permit for a Shepard well, lot 2, section 5-145-93; 
• to be sited 699 FNL and 2349 FEL;
  
• Whiting has a permit for a Gullikson well, SESW 31-152-103; 
• to be sited 1097 FSL and 1819 FWL;
  
• Hunt has a permit for an Alexandria well, SESW 17-161-100; 
• to be sited 325 FSL and 1595 FWL;
  
• Grayson Mill has permits for two Helling wells, two Lonnie wells; and one Bratcher well, NWNW 15-151-101; 
• to be sited 349/350 FNL and between 300 FWL and 525 FWL;
  
• Zavanna has a permit for a Sawyer well, SESE 13-154-99; to be sited 504 FSL and 764 FEL;;
  

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 34061, 1,741, SOGC (Sinclair), Birhorn 5-6H,
• 37705, 1,089, SOGC (Sinclair), Bighorn 3-6H,
• 40286, 3,585, MRO, NOreen 44-12TFH,

Cramer's First Hour, Part 3 -- EV Prices Plunging -- Thursday, Septermber 12, 2024

Locator: 48571TEXAS.

Unity pops today. Unity was on my watch list. I came close to initiating a position in Unity some weeks ago, but, unfortunately, did not, for some reason. However, the money that would have gone into Unity went into other components of the "Mag 7." No complaints. U and NVDA in the past year:

Thursday Night Football: I remember vividly the note I posted when Amazon acquired rights to NFL's Thursday Night Football. A reader opined that this was a disaster for Amazon; TNF was known for lousy match-ups. CNBC interviewed Al Michaels earlier this afternoon. Al Michaels will be calling the game tonight. It was noted that TNF grew 24% year/year. The match-ups are now second to none.

Symbiotic relationship: in fifty years of investing, I've never seen an investing sector like tech. In every other sector, it seems, it's cut-throat competition. Banks: they're all the same. They're cut-throat trying to get your business. Retail: they're all the same. They're cut-throat trying to get your business. But when it comes to chips, yes, there's a lot of competition, but vendors and customers are all frequently sitting at the same table, working together to come up with the end product. Exhibit A: the Apple iPhone. 

Apple's iPhone suppliers:

Sure, many suppliers compete among each other, but for the most part, each major supplier has a unique niche and they all need to work together if the end result is to be successful.