Cognitive Dissonance -- May 27, 2024

Locator: 47196INV.
Locator: 47196ECON.
Tag: oil demand to grow.

Thought-provoking: prudence-signaling vs realism-acknowledging. I've spent much of Memorial Day weekend "studying" this. Very, very interesting. Many CNBC talking heads seem to be masters of "prudence-signaling." 

Oil is back! Link here.  Stagflation? LOL.

AAA is expecting a two-decade record high number of travelers flying for Memorial Day weekend, further supported by global crude oil consumption that analysts at JPMorgan Chase said on Friday would soar by 2.8 million barrels a day from May through August.

[To put this in perspective, 2.8 million bopd about equals "three Bakkens."]

The analysts also predicted an increase of 430,000 barrels per day in jet fuel demand during that same time period.

Bloomberg NEF is projecting that flying passengers will continue to increase in number in the coming weeks, with jet fuel demand already at its highest seasonally since 2019.

“We see jet as our fastest-growing fuel globally,” Bloomberg cited Wood Mackenzie analyst Austin Lin as saying on Monday, adding that we could see U.S. jet fuel demand increase another 5% this year amid strong American consumer spending.

At the same time, gasoline demand is rather duller by comparison, up this week but still hovering around two-year seasonal lows, according to JPMorgan, which sees global demand for gasoline declining next year by around 100,000 bpd.

US screens record 2.95 million airline passengers in single day. All-time record, any day of the year.

Oil is back! Goldman Sachs agrees -- oil demand to grow until 2034. Repeat: will continue to grow through the next ten years. Link here to Charles Kennedy.

Futures: Monday night, Memorial Day, 2024: 

Rally: Wall Street is getting even more bullish on stocks.

Trending: over at TipRanks, analyst top stocks screener:

• AMD, potential upside of 14%, Wells Fargo;
• AZO, UBS analyst; reiterated Buy rating
  
• AMZN, target, $225, from TD Cowen
• others: DAL, TOL, UNH
  

WTI: up 1.02% Monday night, Memorial Day, 2024, trading at $78.51. 

Gasoline prices, link here:

Economy. 

Inflation, link here.

Link here. 

Update: WPX Alfred Old Dog Pad -- May 27, 2024

Locator: 47195B.

The wells:

• 26145, 1,163, WPX, Alfred Old Dog 19-18HB, Reunion Bay, t4/14; cum 479K 3/24;
• 26146, 1,223, WPX, Alfred Old Dog 19-18HY, Reunion Bay, t4/14; cum 391K 3/24;
• 26147, 1,681, WPX, Alfred Old Dog 19-18HC, Reunion Bay, t4/14; cum 513K 3/24;
• 26148, 556, WPX, Alfred Old Dog 30-31 HY, Reunion Bay, t6/14; cum 391K 3/24;
• 26149, 990, WPX, Alfred Old Dog 30-31 HC, Reunion Bay, t7/14; cum 428K 3/24;
• 26152, 968, WPX, Alfred Old Dog 30-31 HD, Reunion Bay, t8/14; cum 350K 3/24;
• 26151, 1,146, WPX, Alfred Old Dog 30-31 HZ, Reunion Bay, t6/14; cum 340K 3/24;
• 26153, 1,531, WPX, Alfred Old Dog 19-18HZ, Reunion Bay, t10/14; cum 397K 3/24;
• 26154, 1,842, WPX, Alfred Old Dog 19-18HD, Reunion Bay, t9/14; cum 540K 3/24;

The maps:

 

Update: EOG Involved With Trinidad's Oil And Gas Sector -- May 27, 2024

Locator: 47194B.

From Reuter's today.

Trinidad and Tobago received six bids from BP, Shell, and US shale producer EOG Resources on four blocks to explore for oil and gas as its 2023 shallow water auction closed on Monday, May 27, 2024.

Trinidad plans to announce the winners in four months, Energy Minister Stuart Young said at the closing of the auction. All three companies bid for the Modified UC block, which is close to the Teak, Sammaan, Poui producing fields. The auction had no other bidders.

For investors: very, very interesting.

And don't forget, Chord (merger of Whiting and Oasis) is now looking to buy Enerplus

From sometime ago:

Reminder:

Link here.

So, this is what we have:

• Trinidad and Tobago: Shell.
• Surinam: Apache and TTE.
• Guyana: XOM.
• Venezuela: CVX.

A reader alerted me to a Charles Kennedy article on Guyana today.  

I had forgotten that Hess partnered with XOM on Guyana.

Now we watch for Shell and and CVX bidding for Guyana; both have experience in this geographic area.

Guyana is tracked here at the sidebar at the right. That site needs to be updated.

 

Update Enerplus' Pitcher's Pad -- May 27, 2024

Locator: 47193B.

These wells are tracked here.

The wells:

• 40524, drl/loc, Enerplus, Closer 149-92-19C-18H-LL, Heart Butte,
• 40525, drl/loc, Enerplus, Southpaw 149-92-19C-18H, Heart Butte,
• 40526, drl/loc, Enerplus, Bullpen 149-92-19C-18H, Heart Butte,
• 22238, 878, Enerplus, Knuckle 149-92-19C-18H, Heart Butte, t7/12; cum 523K 3/24;
• 40527, drl/loc, Enerplus, Juiced149-92-19C-18H, Heart Butte,
• 40528, drl/loc, Enerplus, Dinger 49-92-19D-18H, Heart Butte,
• 22239, PNC, Enerplus, Deuce 149-92-30B-31H TF, Heart Butte,
• 40530, drl/loc, rig on site, Enerplus, Lumber 149-92-19D-18H, Heart Butte,
• 22240, 603, Enerplus, Net 149-92-30B-3H, Heart Butte, t7/12; cum 389K 3/24;
• 40531, drl/loc, Enerplus, Deuce149-92-19D-18H, Heart Butte, 

The maps:

 

Updating The Enerplus Honor Pad, Spotted Horn -- Memorial Day -- 2024

Locator: 47192B.

Updates

February 6, 2025: production updates here. 

Original Post 

The Enerplus honor, grace, courage and pride wells are tracked here. 

Original Post: Honor, Grace, Courage, and Pride

Note: 

• the producing wells on this 10-well pad are now all inactive while,
• the newer wells are being drilled.
• the newer wells now being drilled were all spud on consecutive days 
• these wells will all trend toward 1 million boepd cumulative; adding in natural gas, add another 25% for boepd? so, 737K crude oil + 25% (for natural gas) =  737 *1.25 = 921,000 boepd (a gross approximation)?
  

Updated map and production.

• 40409, drl/drl, Enerplus, Valiant 150-94-06B-LL, Spotted Horn, spud 1/18/24; npd,
• 23541, IA/1,545, Enerplus, Honor 150-94-06B-18H TF, Spotted Horn, Three Forks, 59 stages; 14 million lbs sand, 1280 acres, t6/14; cum 705K 12/20; three-section lateral; t6/14; cum 737K 11/21; cum 788K 8/23;
  
• 40438, drl/drl, Enerplus, Strength 150-94-06B-18H, Spotted Horn, spud 1/19/24; npd,
• 40437, drl/drl, Enerplus, Icon 150-94-06B-18H, Spotted Horn, spud 1/21/24; npd,
• 23542, IA/1,007, Enerplus, Grace 150-94-06B-07H, Spotted Horn, t2/13; cum 371K 12/20;TD -20,753 feet, two section lateral; cum 389K 11/21; cum 426K 11/23;
  
• 40436, drl/drl, Enerplus, Prowess 150-94-06B-18H, Spotted Horn, spud 1/22/24; npd,
• 26608, IA/1,601, Enerplus, Courage 150-94-06A-18H, Spotted Horn, t6/14; cum 655K 12/20; TD - 25,023 feet, three section lateral; 42K extrapolates to 54K over 30 days; cum 675K 11/21; cum 716K 11/23;
  
• 40432, drl/drl, Enerplus, Fearless 150-94-06A-18H-LL, Spotted Horn, spud 1/25/24; npd,
• 40434, drl/drl, Enerplus, Purpose 150-94-06A-18H, Spotted Horn, spud 1/24/24; npd,
• 26609, IA/1,703, Enerplus Resources, Pride 150-94-06A-18H TF, t10/14; cum 564K 12/20; TD = 25,431 feet, three section lateral; cum 590K 11/21; cum 661K 9/23;

The maps: