The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog)

Thursday, April 27, 2023

Tim Cook, Steve Jobs, Apple, And Disney -- April 23, 2023

Flashback, from November 14, 2019:

First things first: Apple, Inc., was scheduled to pay its quarterly dividend today. Tim Cook owns around 900,000 shares. If so, he should receive a check for about $700,000 today. At one time the largest AAPL shareholder, he still may be, was Arthur Levinson with around 1.2 million shares of AAPL. Steve Jobs accumulated more wealth from Disney than from Apple. Whatever. How did I get on this track? Time to jump off.

And Then We Have Tucker -- April 27, 2023

Locator: 34500TU.

Most egregious story of the day, from The Los Angeles Times:

there's no way this went on for eleven years without "anyone" knowing about this;
a few others need to spend time in prison
but let's go ahead and say what others are thinking: well, those UCLA co-eds are attractive; ready-made for a TV series: "Baywatch, the sequel: UCLA 90024." In high definition, 3-D, and optimized for Apple AR/VR
meanwhile, the GOP is worried about RuPaul in schools and free cans of beer to Dylan; oh, give me a break

Ditto:

Readers: I'm getting surprisingly few (as in "none) e-mails regarding this subject. Maybe time to stir the tea leaves / ashes: link here. I don't need a weatherman to tell me which way the wind is blowing. LOL.

When one fires the #1 talk show moderator, there has to be something "huge" that precipitated that
the firing came out of the blue

there had been no public controversy -- ever -- about whether he stays or goes
it just happened
and, yet, still no explanation

Apple savings, two links:

too convenient? WSJ. Thesis: folks will use their savings account like an ATM machine.

my first thought: a different reading of human behavior
would you rather park your cash in a non-interest paying checking account?
more to say on this later, perhaps

Apple: sucking people deeper into their ecosystem. Okay. Link here.

bigger news: did you see how "big" Apple Savings will become!

Motley Fool on BRK. Link here. Wow, it must be a slow day everywhere.

California bullet train (s): now there are two.

update on first one. Yes, I'm having a slow start, also, to the day.
second one: LA to LV.
one wonders: would a "big thinker / change agent" think differently
how about an LA airport, perhaps at the junction of I-210 and I-15 dedicated to nothing but non-stops to LV (and return, of course)

completely streamline the process
start by allowing on TSA pre-check, LV-vetted flyers onto the complex and then go from there
golf cart lifts from car to terminal
guarantee no more than 15 minutes inside terminal
no reservations:

scheduled departures on the hour at peak travel times; on the even hour during peak periods
planes depart when 90% full, regardless of scheduled time of departure
regardless, no plane sits on ground longer than 20 minutes

think of this as a air-way (like the subway)
this could be loads of fun

Apple Valley: has anyone looked at the map; by the time you've driven to Apple Valley, you might as well just finish the drive to Las Vegas.

San Pedro to Apple Valley: two hours
Huntington Beach to Apple Valley: two hours
flight time, Apple Valley to Las Vegas: one hour
San Pedro to I-210 / I-15 junction: one hour

Received bipartisan support this past week:

Started Off Slowly -- Then Ended With A Bang -- For Amazon -- April 27, 2023

Locator: 44486B.

See California story below regarding diesel locomotives. The California board approved the measure. It now requires approval by US EPA. See story here.

Market Close

Amazon: link here.

After the close:

AMZN: at the close, up 4.6%; up $4.84; trading at $109.82. After hours, after the release: up another 8.2%; up $9.02; trading at $119.00. [119-105/105 = 13% jump.]

INTC: at the close, up 2.8%; up $0.81; trading at $29.86. After hours, after the release: down 1.5%; down $0.44; trading at $29.42.

AMZN: link here.

INTC: link here. One word investors don't like to see -- "staggering."

Link here.

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Rambling

After the close:

AMZN: link here.
INTC: link here. One word investors don't like to see -- "staggering."

Market talk.

I'm only watching two companies today: AAPL and PXD.
A reader sent me a note regarding the city of Los Angeles voting on whether to impose strict new conditions on diesel locomotives (think UNP and BRK-BNSF).

Story here.

My not-ready-for-prime reply:

For an investor, another open book test.

"We" have a huge GE locomotive manufacturing site north of Ft Worth, located where the center of the population for DFW is projected to be in 2050.

Huge, huge news for GE, Ft Worth, if Los Angeles votes to impose restrictions.

BRK-BNSF and UNP will simply cycle new locomotive purchases with new guidelines in mind. I think it’s a non-story in the big scheme of things.

On another note, PXD is certainly interesting. Biggest producer in the Permian. XOM ready to pounce?

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Musical Interlude

Posting again: it's that good.

Updates

Later, 2:12 p.m. CT:

Later, 12:55 p.m. CT: for the archives. Link here.

Later, 12:51 p.m. CT: for the archives. Let's see if folks can connect the dots.

Later, 12:31 p.m. CT:

Original Post

Wow! Starting off to be a very boring day; something tells me that's not going to last. LOL.

When things are this slow, I may have to introduce a new feature.

CNBC: above the fold.

GM: raised guidance, but stock fell.

I don't think young journalists get it -- for the big spenders -- those seniors getting social security for the first time and going out and buying a new GM luxury sedan -- "electric" is "woke." Not gonna sell.

Next time you are out and about, look who is driving a GM luxury sedan. Spoiler alert: it's not a soccer mom.

The real reason GM stock is not moving? There's no hurry. It will be years before we see 20% EV penetration. With GM stock, there's no MOJO, no FOMO, no YOLO. If one is going to spend $65,000 on an EV, one might as well look at what Porsche has to offer.

GDP:

at 1.1% for 1Q23, it's way better than -2.5%! LOl.
GDPNow had this exactly right -- two days ago, GDPNow: 1.1%.

INTC: reports today.

Spanish phrase of the day: pastel de bodas.What a great etymology.

bodas: wedding
casada: married

Brewer of the Day: Melvin Brewing, Alpine, WY.

local: Sunspanked, Lazy Dog, Glade Parks, DFW, TX
I was treated so nicely there (Lazy Dog) yesterday, I may go back today. Seriously, LOL.
one wonders if marketing heavy hors d'oeuvres as part of "beer club" package makes more sense than upgrade from 16 oz to 22 oz? Just throwing that out there? Sort of like free popcorn, peanuts, one used to see at bars; now, not so much.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 42.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $74.30.

Natural gas: $2.309.

Friday, April 28, 2023: 49 for the month; 49 for the quarter, 304 for the year
38524, conf, Oasis, Lindvig Beck Federal 5201 41-2 5B,
38524, conf, Oasis, Rynn Lee Federal 5201 41-2 6B,
38438, conf, Hess, EN-Farhart-156-93-0409H-8,

Thursday, April 27, 2023: 46 for the month; 46 for the quarter, 301 for the year
37291, conf, CLR, Irgens Rexall 9-19HSL1,
37290, conf, CLR, Irgens Rexall 8-19H,

RBN Energy: TC Energy's Gilllis accessto help shape Louisiana's LNG market, part 4.

The U.S. won’t add new LNG export capacity this year for the first time since it became an exporter in 2016. But that lull is not going to last long. At least five facilities are under construction and due for completion in the next few years, several other expansions were recently sanctioned, and there are more final investment decisions (FIDs) on the way. With export development expected to accelerate in the coming years, the race to debottleneck feedgas pipeline routes is on. More natural gas pipeline capacity will be needed, particularly for moving gas supply to the Louisiana coast, where the bulk of new liquefaction will be sited. In today’s RBN blog, we resume our series on the pipeline expansions targeting LNG export demand, this time highlighting TC Energy’s Gillis Access Project and how it fits into the Louisiana LNG market picture.

Wednesday, April 26, 2023

McDonald's Starting To See Pushback -- April 26, 2023

Locator: 44488BE.

Wow, wow, wow, wow! From April 25, 2023 -- just yesterday:

McDonald's

recurrent theme on the blog: inflation doesn't matter (don't take that out of context)
headline: McDonald's revamp is paying off; net income rises 63% in 1Q23; link here;
taking customers (and money) away from competitors
MCD (stock) has traded at record highs this month (April, 2023)
broad restructuring and laying off "hundreds" of workers
reducing "some" employees' compensation packages
I had a Big Mac meal on Saturday this past weekend

that was the first time I've been to McDonald's in a year (?) -- that I can recall -- it's possible it's been longer
I was surprised how costly the meal was; I did not "up-size" it -- kept it at "medium-size" -- was just under $9
my expectation: a $5-handle, and significantly less than $6

I guess I've been under the Geico rock

Now this, link here. Exactly my thoughts as I posted above, yesterday:

I really, really that Big Mac meal yesterday, the first McDonald's visit in a very, very long time, but when a McDonald's meal trends toward $12, that pretty much means the end of my visits except once in a blue moon.

From the linked article:

McDonald's had a juicy first quarter, but fat sales and profits aren't guaranteed this year as consumers begin to push back on higher prices for things like Big Macs and fries.

"We are seeing in some places resistance to pricing, more resistance than we saw at the outset," McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski warned on the company's Tuesday earnings call. McDonald's said it's seeing "pressure" on its key units per transaction measure.

That means the typical cost-conscious McDonald's customer is balking at higher menu prices.

As a result, they may be buying a hamburger — but not getting a side of fries. Or those with a little more cash in their pockets could be buying more premium McDonald's dinner items — but leaving out a dessert.

But then, most Americans could afford a few less fries.

By the way, did someone say once in a blue moon?

Quick, who brews Blue Moon?

One of my favorite beers. Link here.

I haven't had a beer in ages. Until this past week: yesterday I had an IPA at the Lazy Dog restaurant next door to our apartment complex. It was awesome. I was going to have a Sunspanked Red (link here) until I realized it was not an IPA.

I also searched out and found bottled Bitburger Pils.

The only two beers I drink are IPAs and Bitburger Pils. And, an occasional Blue Moon though I don't think I've had a Blue Moon in a month of blue moons. Oh, yes, also, my favorite pre-pandemic beer was Shock Top, but only from the tap. Both Blue Moon and Shock Top are Belgian whites.