Later, 2:43 p.m. CT: just after posting the original note below, it was reported that another company is reportedly moving to Texas: Inbenta, link here.
Holy mackerel! This is any ol' company moving from California. It's an "AI" company. Wow, wow, wow.
Inbenta
is moving from Silicon Valley in California to Allen, Texas. Allen is
midway between Plano and McKinney, the two fastest growing cities in the
US, north of Dallas.
There's
more than one story line here. I'll get back to this if I find time. I
think folks are missing the second biggest story line.
Landsea
Homes, which designs and builds master-planned communities and houses
across the country, will leave Newport Beach, California, in favor of
Dallas, Texas.
"We are relocating our corporate headquarters to Dallas, Texas, from
Southern California, a move that should provide cost savings over time,”
Landsea founder and CEO John Ho
said during a call with investors Tuesday.
Today: warm, overcast, calm, small chance for rain. Beautiful day.
Reading:
For a "throw-away" book, this book turned out to be very, very interesting. I could have done worse.
Plans:
I'm still preparing for Sophia's summer "vacation." I'm putting together a number of summer projects for Sophia that will take some time now.
One big change in my personal life: my feelings about keeping books on shelves has/have changed. My life has, literally overnight, improved 100% and all of a sudden, I have much more space. LOL. Imagine that. And I'm not reading any less; more, if anything. But I digress.
The twice daily Bakken report will always be posted.
Hopefully, I will post, at least once a week, thoughts on investing, which for me has now become much more interesting than blogging on the Bakken. The Bakken never ceases to amaze me but most of my reporting on the Bakken is "more of the same."
To make blogging on the Bakken more interesting, it helps to get questions from readers with regard to the Bakken.
for those with a 30-year horizon, this is going to be another great year for investing;
at
the rate the Fed initiated and continued the increases in the Fed rate,
Schwab data suggests 550 days (range 500 - 650) before the market gets
back to "where it was"
start: March 20, 2022; days remaining in 2022 -- 286
end, "back to where were" range:
500 - 286 = 214 = August 2, 2023 (summer doldrums; dog days of summer)
long-term investors can keep picking up shares at deep discounts at least until mid-year, 2023 [update: extended 180 days, to June 30, 2024].
in other words, this "story" -- at best -- is just mid-cycle. A lot of time left before we "get back to where we were."
universities and other magnets for donations will probably feel the effect the greatest as donors cut back.
AAPL
re-sets: now a "value" company; not a "growth" company. Will trade at a
lower P/E. Perhaps true also for other companies, like Tesla.
Now, the update. With the new Fed policy enunciated by JPow on March 7, 2023 -- "higher, sooner, longer," the 500 - 650 day range great buying opportunities has been extended. Based on JPow's comments two days ago, the range can be extended 180 days which takes us to June 30, 2024.
The "consensus" is that the coming recession has now been pushed out to 2025. Yes, 2025.
Maybe more on this later, but the recession, "when/if" does not bother me a bit; "this" recession has been predicted for so long, it will be a relief when it comes. LOL. What excites me is that for index investing the market won't be back "to where we were" until June 30, 2024; that in the meantime, it will be a stock-pickers market.
************************ Mother Goose
Advice for today:
Jack Sprat could eat no fat.
His wife could eat no lean.
And so between them both, you see,
They licked the platter clean.
A "talking head" on CNBC repeated the meme: with interest rates this high, bonds are competing with stocks.
My mother knew nothing about investing and kept all her money in cash, money market accounts, and occasionally CDs. She was thrilled with 14% interest rates in the 1980s (?).
My father, whether he knew anything about investing or not, I don't know. He always said it was always better to be "lucky" rather than "smart." He did incredibly well in the market despite no formal training and no informal education with regard to investing. I don't think he ever read a book on invested, and ever read The WSJ. About all he did was watch the CNBC crawler ten minutes every day while checking the day-old Bismarck Tribune "money section."
But he did most of his investing during a multi-decade bull market. He never invested in Treasuries or bonds; he only invested in stocks.
Both mom and dad ended up financially quite well off, probably better than most.
So, for mom, bonds did not compete with stocks. Bonds competed with cash under her mattress.
For dad, stock did not compete with bonds. AAPL competed with SLB for his dollars.
And it continues in the next generation. For my wife, the money market accounts compete with cash in her savings account; and, for me AAPL competes with DVN for my dollars.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment
site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or
relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have
read here.
All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of
my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.
So, now back to work on Sophia's projects.
************************* Army, Navy, Air Force
For the young person who wants to join the military but doesn't know which service, here's some free advice:
Friday, March 10, 2023: 36 for the month; 198 for the quarter, 198 for the year 39137, conf, CLR, Micahlucas 6-5H1, 39132, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Claire Rose 3-31-30-159N-99W-MBH,
Thursday, March 9, 2023: 34 for the month; 196 for the quarter, 196 for the year 39142, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Hovden Federal 4-20H 39136, conf, CLR, Micahlucas 5-5HH,
The most closely watched energy
statistics in the world have a problem, and it’s been getting worse over
the past two years. We’re talking about EIA’s U.S. crude oil supply,
demand and inventory balances, which are published each week and then
trued up about 60 days later in monthly data.
The problem is that the
balances don’t balance. EIA uses a plug number alternatively called
“adjustment” or “unaccounted for” to force supply and demand to equate.
That would not be an issue if the plug number was small and flipped
frequently from positive to negative, likely due to timing
inconsistencies with the input data. But that’s not the case.
The number
is mostly positive, meaning more demand than supply. And the difference
can be mammoth: last week it was 2.3 MMb/d, or 18.4% of U.S. crude
production.
It seems like barrels are somehow materializing out of
nowhere. But now we know where, because EIA just finished a 90-day study
of the crude imbalance that reveals the sources of the problem and what
it is going to take to fix it. In today’s RBN blog, we will delve into
what has been causing the problem, what it means for interpreting EIA
statistics, and what EIA is doing to address the issues.
