Five Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- July 25, 2022

Far Side: link here.

WTI: $96.52

Natural gas: $8.46

Active rigs: 42 or thereabouts.

Tuesday, July 26, 2022: 26 for the month, 26 for the quarter, 365 for the year

• 38676, conf, CLR, Bang 5-4H1,
• 37496, conf, Petro-Hunt, State 159-94-25A-36-2H,

Monday, July 25, 2022: 24 for the month, 24 for the quarter, 363 for the year

• 37497, conf, Petro-Hunt, State 159-94-25A-36-3H,

Sunday, July 24, 2022: 23 for the month, 23 for the quarter, 362 for the year

• 38675, conf,  CLR, Bang 6-4H,
• 37498, conf, Petro-Hunt, State 159-94-25A-36-1HS, 

RBN Energy: will the propane market be prepared for winter?

We are only two months away from the official start of propane heating season in the U.S., and inventories are 3.5 MMbbl lower than last year, or 2.6 MMbbl below the five-year week-on-week low. Volumetrically, it’s a story very much like last summer: Propane exports are running high and while production is up it’s not increasing fast enough to get inventories back to where we would like to see them. But propane prices are not behaving at all like last year. At this point in 2021, the price of propane was moving higher, both in absolute terms and relative to the price of crude oil. This year, prices have been falling for the past four months and are much weaker relative to crude than a year ago. With low inventories and low prices, what are the prospects for the propane market being prepared for the upcoming heating season? And what are the risks if there's a cold-weather surprise? We’ll consider those issues and more in the blog series we begin today, focusing first on how we got here.  

Propane Exports, Seasonality and Inventories

The highly seasonal U.S. propane market is traditionally divided into two halves: April through September, when the industry builds inventories, and October through March, when inventories are drawn down to meet winter demand. About this time each year, the industry is laser-focused on the status and pace of inventory increases, and whether it looks like there will be enough supply to meet the expected surge in demand during the impending heating season, particularly if an unusual spell of sustained cold weather hits the market. In recent years this calculus has become increasingly complex as exports have overtaken total domestic demand for propane.

Focus On Fracking -- July 24, 2022

Link here.

Lede:

US oil supplies at new 18 year low, SPR at a 37 year low; DUC wells at an all time low, DUC backlog at 4.4 months. 

Always my favorite section:

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending July 15th indicated that despite another large oil withdrawal from the SPR and a sizable increase in oil supplies that could not be accounted for​, ​we needed to withdraw oil from our stored commercial crude supplies for the 3rd time in 7 weeks, and for the 20th time over the past 34 weeks, ​mostly because of a big increase in our oil exports…our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 156,000 barrels per day to an average of 6,519,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average of 164,000 barrels per day during the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by 735,000 barrels per day to 3,759,000 barrels per day, which meant that our trade in oil worked out to a net import average of 2,760,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending July 15th, 891,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week…over the same period, production of crude from US wells was reportedly 100,000 barrels per day lower at 11,900,000 barrels per day, and hence our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil and from domestic well production appears to have totaled an average of 14,660,000 barrels per day during the July 15th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,319,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending July 15th, an average of 321,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil than our refineries processed during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 778,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US....so based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures from the EIA for the week ending July 15th appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from oilfield production, and from storage was 881,000 barrels per day less than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week…to account for that disparity between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just inserted a (+881,000) barrel per day figure onto line 13 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet in order to make the reported data for the daily supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus suggesting there must have been an omission or error of that magnitude in this week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed... however, since most everyone treats these weekly EIA reports as gospel, and since these figures often drive oil pricing, and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it's published, and just as it's watched & believed to be reasonably accurate by most everyone in the industry...(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil, see this EIA explainer)….

It Appears Whiting Is Fracking A Braaflat Well In The Parshall Oil Field -- July 24, 2022

This well has just gone off line, suggesting a newer Braaflat well is being fracked:

• 17023, 2,669, Whiting, Braaflat 11-11H, Sanish, t5/08; cum 834K 2/21; huge bump in production without explanation back in 2012; just went off line; see this post; cum 843K 9/21; went off line 2/22; cum 848K 1/22; recent production;
• the newer Braaflat well? #38321. In the Parshall oil field.
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	25	1139	1215	71	1709	1608	52
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	1233	1219	81	3432	3370	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	1279	1256	82	3626	3566	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	1284	1272	90	3522	3460	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	1154	1197	79	3267	3207	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	1253	1269	66	3185	3185	0

10X Jump In Production -- A Whiting Well In The Sanish -- July 24, 2022

A reader suggested that I note that not all Bakken wells are as good as this one.

The well:

• 16902, 2,192, Whiting, Lacey 11-1H, Sanish, t7/08; cum 521K 12/20; one of the few wells that did not go off line, 5/20; just went off line 7/21; cum 522K 6/21; see this post; off line 8/21; remains off line 10/21; cum 540K 5/22;
• how did this happen (see production profile below): now look at this well on that pad that was just fracked -- link here:
  

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	2754	2854	1134	1693	1631	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	28	2566	2484	704	1579	1386	137
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	2663	2698	1200	927	865	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	2467	2491	957	923	821	46
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	2951	2989	1161	1441	1379	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	2881	2740	1486	1645	1583	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	930	888	569	599	540	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	1	0	0	3	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	20	276	299	81	300	291	9
BAKKEN	6-2021	25	321	330	172	436	409	27
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	325	340	93	307	307	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	24	383	330	116	616	616	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	1	7	58	2	10	10	0

A Whiting Littlefield Well Completed -- July 24, 2022

The reason I'm posting this well is to show the halo effect; see this post. 

This well:

• 37599, drl/A, Whiting, Littlefield 41-2HU, Sanish, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 5/22; full production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	20726	20689	5910	22678	22639	9
BAKKEN	4-2022	28	21639	21676	5749	18153	15829	2297
BAKKEN	3-2022	30	23159	23220	10921	16070	15974	67
BAKKEN	2-2022	16	16859	16850	5465	449	0	434
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	35244	35280	11829	25330	25003	297
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	34179	34168	14000	24943	24609	304
BAKKEN	11-2021	25	19043	18723	28661	12173	12149	0