The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog)

Wednesday, May 4, 2022

Russia's Oil Sector Is Already Beginning To Implode -- May 4, 2022

Russia, post Putin's War

The war: a race against time.
Russian economy will implode summer of 2022.
Inevitable decline of its oil industry.
Putin's War will set back Russia fifty years.

Updates

May 31, 2022:

Russia says it will find other buyers after EU ban.
Russia oil is selling at huge discounts.

Re-posting.

Wow, wow, wow -- this happened fast. This is a central theme on the blog regarding Putin's War -- but I thought it would take a bit longer for mainstream media to start reporting it, and here it is -- on May 4, 2022 -- huge, link to Irina Slav:

Russia’s oil output is plummeting, and the decline is expected to worsen in May.
OPEC recently warned that markets could see the loss of more than 7 million barrels per day of Russian oil and other liquids exports.
With many global producers constrained in their capacity to boost production fast, oil prices are likely to remain elevated for the foreseeable future.

Four New Permits; One DUC Reported As Completed -- May 4, 2022

Russia’s oil output is plummeting, and the decline is expected to worsen in May.
OPEC recently warned that markets could see the loss of more than 7 million barrels per day of Russian oil and other liquids exports.
With many global producers constrained in their capacity to boost production fast, oil prices are likely to remain elevated for the foreseeable future.

Two words: Buffett, Chevron.

Diesel: I've said many times, if Charles Kennedy writes about it, it's worth reading. Diesel prices hit a new record on Wednesday. Link to Charles Kennedy. It's much more complicated than this but as far as I'm concerned, the "diesel price" issue in this country is due to "killing the Keystone XL." That's a metonym, of course, and includes ESG. But every day, the decision to shut down the Keystone XL looks more and more -- the worse energy decision made by any US president in a long, long time.

WTI:

at time of original post, $107.90
later in the evening, $108.10

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$107.90	5/4/2022	05/04/2021	05/04/2020	05/04/2019	05/04/2018
Active Rigs	39	17	27	64	62

Four new permits, #38926 - #38929, inclusive:

Operator: Grayson Mill
Field: Alexander (McKenzie)
Comments:

Grayson Mill has permits for four Timber Creek wells in NENW 13-151-101;

to be sited 373 FNL and between 2331 FWL and 2421 FWL

One producing well completed:

38612, 2,046, Grayson Mill, Jay 24-13F 6H, Banks, no production data,

Here We Go -- May The Fourth Be With You -- May 4, 2022

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All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Note: I don't plan to update this page after today.

Reporting after hours:

APA: link here. Net income, $1.9 billion, or $5.43 / share; adjusted, $668 million or $1.92 / share. Operating net cash was $891 million; $675 million in free cash flow. Guidance: $2.9 billion of free cash flow in full year 2022.
CPE:
CDEV:
CHK: exceeds expectations.
CIVI:
CLR: link here. $1.65 / share. Adjusted, $2.65. Earnings/net income: 597.80 million. Link here. $1.15 billion free cash flow. Quarterly dividend increased to 28 cents per share. Total debt reduction, $264 million. SeekingAlpha "clean quarter."
LPI:
MDU: link here. EPS of 16 cents misses by two cents. Revenue of $1.42 billion beats by $350 million.
MRO: link here. $1.78 / share; adjusted $1.02 / share. Operating cash flow: $1.067 billion, or $1.280 billion before charges. Net income: $1.304 billion.
OAS: link here.

Oasis and Whiting Petroleum Corporation ("Whiting") continue to make progress and expect the merger (the "merger") to close in 3Q22. Oasis and Whiting each filed a premerger notification and report form under the HSR Act, and the waiting periods with respect thereto have expired. Oasis filed a registration statement on Form S-4 (the "Registration Statement") on April 28, 2022.

PDCE: link here. Increased base dividend to $1.00 annualized level. See link for financial results.
PXD: link here. Net income, $2.0 billion, or $7.85 per share; adjusted, $7.74 / share. Cash flow, $2.6 billion. Look at this: base + variable dividend of $7.38 / share. Repurchased $250 million of shares. Returning 88% of first quarter free cash flow to shareholders.
SBOW
TALO
WLL: link here. Revenue, $527 million; net loss of $37 million or 95 cents / share; adjusted net income $185 million or $4.61 / share. Adjust free cash flow was $150 million. Debt at end of quarter, $50 million.

Dividends

COP: I forgot about these additional variable dividends.

DFS: raised its quarterly dividend by a dime.

Busy, Busy Afternoon -- May 4, 2022

Market: with a dozen companies yet to report after hours, I'm going to be up all night sorting everything out.

Diesel: NY Harbor -- diesel is priced at $238 / bbl ($5.67 / gallon). Aren't refiners buying oil for about $100 / bbl? Link here.

Joe: "I did that." In fact, Jay Powell did that ... but ... largest rate jump since 2000 -- did the rate just double? -- and yet the Fed rate is still <1%. Tell me again why all the angst about the rate rise. By the way, the comments must have been more important than the rate rise based on market action after the meeting concluded. Link here.