We All Survived The First Day Of Trading For 2022 -- Congratulations! January 3, 2022

Twitter: I've had a twitter account for a long, long time and I only post Bakken-related material on that account. That will continue. But I am now on another "twitter-like" account and for the first time in a long time I feel wonderful and comfortable that I won't be kicked off that platform because of my posts. 

Roth vs traditional? Neither. Make sure you max out your company's "401" before considering Roth vs traditional. But if you are ready to decide whether to open a Roth or a traditional, or fund an existing Roth / traditional, without question: Roth. I've talked about this before. The consensus, it seems, is to go "with" the traditional IRA, but that is wrong on so many levels. Can't stress that enough. 

AAPL: something no one is reporting, but now a talking head on CNBC is mentioning it -- due to "huge" buybacks, the number of AAPL's outstanding shares have decreased significantly which puts a floor under the company's share price. At least that's the theory. See graphic.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rig list: Nabors B 05 (B5) still not showing up on active rig list. 

Active rigs:

$76.07	1/3/2022	01/03/2021	01/03/2020	01/03/2019	01/03/2018
Active Rigs	32	13	55	65	53

Three new permits, #38728 - #38730, inclusive:

• Operator: Kraken
• Field: Oliver (Williams)
• Comments: Kraken has permits for two Raymond wells and one Fairbanks well, all three on SESE 8-157-98; to be sited 340 FSL and between 325 FEL.

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed (typo on the daily activity report -- Wallace, not Walace):

• 37360, 1,272, Kraken, Wallace 6-7 3H, Oliver, no production data,
  
• 37361, 1,611, Kraken, Wallace 6-7 4H, Oliver, no production data,
  
• 37362, 1,600, Kraken, Wallace 6-7 1H, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
  

The Ten-Year Treasury Breaks Through 1.6%; The Market Surges! What Happened? January 3, 2022

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Last summer, talking heads over at CNBC were talking the market down, worried about the ten-year Treasury heading higher, the first stop, 1.6% and then the second stop: 2.0%.

All of a sudden, the ten-year Treasury hits 1.6% (and trending higher) and CNBC talking heads are even suggesting we will see 2% before summer and yet the market surges. 

So, what happened? What changed?

The narrative changed (see third major data point below), but more importantly, a lot of other stuff  also changed. Even Steve Liesman sounded bullish this morning.

The Fed:

• at worse, the Fed raises the rate three times this year, but rates will still be very, very low
• tea leaves right now suggest that the Fed will raise rates only once this year
• regardless of how many times the Fed raises rates, Jay Powell will be watching risk of recession and the midterm elections very, very closely

My favorite chart

• link here;
• lots and lots and lots of money on the sideline;

The narrative has changed:

• this is the new narrative on CNBC: inflation can only be beat by investing in US equities

Covid-19, newest variant:

• cases are already peaking in some countries, specifically South Africa where it was first detected
• if so, this surge is just like previous surges; lasts about ten days to hit peak and then begins to recede
• regardless: severity of this variant is similar to a "cold"; hospitalizations are not rising
• there is every indication this is the beginning of the end of  Covid-19 (by the way, if it is, President Biden can take this into the mid-terms arguing he ended Covid-19 as he promised)

Tesla:

• blew out analysts' forecast; risk-on investing back in vogue

AAPL:

• broke through resistance to hit $3 trillion market cap

Waiting for "guidance":

• investors were waiting to see which way the market would head on first day of trading in new year
• with risk-on trading back in vogue, new highs were set in early afternoon trading

WTI:

• up again, and every indication producers will watch this closely;
• up 1.5%; trading at $76.35

Weather:

• although the South is finally getting a bit of winter, all indications are this is going to be a mild, mild winter in the US;

Supply chain issues:

• we're easily through the worse; holidays are over, and "we" have six months to prepare for summer

Mid-term elections:

• incumbents won't want to upset the apple (no pun intended) cart
• Nancy Pelosi just put millions in to Disney, Roblox, and Alphabet (GOOG)
  

Temporary:

• a lot of folks sold at the end of the year (2021) to take losses for tax purposes;
• now, first day of trading in the New Year and folks are putting that cash to work

Short term:

• now that we see which way the market is headed temporarily, that opens up short term, and short term: FOMO

FDA Significantly Increases Pfizer Vaccine Emergency Use Authorization -- January 3, 2022

Link here.

• Expand the use of a single booster dose to include use in individuals 12 through 15 years of age.
• Shorten the time between the completion of primary vaccination of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine and a booster dose to at least five months.
• Allow for a third primary series dose for certain immunocompromised children 5 through 11 years of age.

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The Bat Cave

Weather folks said it was going to be freezing this week. Well, perhaps not so much.

We're in the "bat cave" today and it's almost perfect.

These Chairs Aren't Going To Sell Themselves -- Doomberg -- January 3, 2022

Link here.

I was looking for a source of good writing. Airmail tempted me after one article, maybe a year ago, but then disappointed me and I no longer subscribe or follow. 

Doomberg looks like a winner. 

Note to readers: Doomberg will be linked at the sidebar at the right. Another change for the blog for 2022.

Bitcoin: To Save Fossil Fuels -- January 3, 2022

From the DigiEconomist, in 2021:

• Bitcoin:
• consumed 134 TWh, comparable to electrical energy consumed by Argentina;
• related CO2 emissions: 64 metric tons, = to entire global net savings from deploying EVs

But there's good news: Tesla smashed expectations; delivered way more EVs in 4Q21 than analysts forecast.

Natural gas, link here:

• Goldman Sachs: there is a risk "we" will run out of natural gas.
• BofA: the market will be oversupplied in 2022
• for the record: I'm "with" BofA on this one

The Pelosi portfolio:

• Disney: surges; up 1.6% in early morning trading
• Roblox: slumps, down 2.4%
• Alphabet (GOOG): up slightly up 0.2%)

First group "financial / economic" indicators:

• 10-Year Treasury: link here.1.604%, up 160 basis points.
  
• DXY: link here. Up a bit, at 96.29. Up 32 basis points.
  
• Silver: link  here. Down. Interesting. Surprised me. Trading down almost 50 cents/ounce; trading at $22.91.
  
• CBOE volatility index: link here. Up a bit at 17.37.

AAPL: won't hit $3 trillion today. Later: I was very, very wrong. See below.

• up $3.30 / share; up 1.86% in early trading
• trading at $180.89
• market cap at $2.966 trillion
• the AAPL ads over the weekend were incredibly compelling
• caught the attention of Jim Cramer 
• the Dick Tracy 🍏 watch
  
• MSFT: market cap at $2.488 trillion; shares down a bit today
• on a day, AAPL surges, MSFT falls back in an actively traded market;
  

 Later: Apple, first company to hit a market cap of $3 trillion.