Sunday, October 17, 2021

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Week -- October 17, 2021

The wells:

  • 36928, conf,  Rimrock, FBIR Guyblackhawk 24X-27D, Heart Butte, I haven't tracked the FBIR Guyblackhawk wells so far but will start doing that later today;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20217434741869
7-202140111513
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2021205146761
7-2021149269202
6-202153630
5-202148260
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2021143059498
7-2021119418123
6-2021117127911
5-2021798311
4-202129481569
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20211470520260
7-20211710420791
6-20211989126554
5-20215116058241
4-20211828725524
  • 36769, conf, Hess, CA-Russell Smith-155-96-2425H-10, Capa,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20211123711355
7-2021142909173
6-202150549661
5-20212006237150
4-202145166796
  • 38193, conf, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-96-29-32-7HLW, Westberg, how fast can the Bakken swing? See this post. This well was permitted March 4, 2021, and was producing oil less than five months later.
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20212082344816
  • 37228, conf, Whiting, Sorenson 21-6H, Bully; at least four different oil fields in the Bakken have Sorenson wells; at least four different operators have Sorenson wells; the Bully oil field is tracked here but has not been updated since 2015;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20211258021155
7-20211710225807
6-20211894736790
5-20211585025009
4-20211013518838
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20211239411385
7-202145825
  • 36768, conf, Hess, CA-Russell Smith-155-96-2425H-10, Capa,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20211712316661
7-20212518722145
6-20212680751363
5-20213618664053
4-20211588524973

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Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- October 17, 2021

Monday, October 25, 2021: 21 for the month, 21 for the quarter, 244 for the year:
36928, conf,  Rimrock, FBIR Guybalckhawk 24X-27D,
36917, conf,  Whiting, Satterthwaite 14-35HU,
36065, conf,  Enerplus, Obsidian 147-93-16B-21H-TF,

Sunday, October 24, 2021: 18 for the month, 18 for the quarter, 241 for the year:
37977, conf, Hess, EN-Joyce-LE-156-94-1721H-6,
36769, conf, Hess, CA-Russell Smith-155-96-2425H-10,

Saturday, October 23, 2021: 16 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 239 for the year:
None.

Friday, October 22, 2021: 16 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 239 for the year:
38193, conf, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-96-29-32-7HLW,

Thursday, October 21, 2021: 15 for the month, 15 for the quarter, 239 for the year:
37228, conf, Whiting, Sorenson 21-6H,

Wednesday, October 20, 2021: 14 for the month, 14 for the quarter, 238 for the year:
None.

Tuesday, October 19, 2021: 14 for the month, 14 for the quarter, 238 for the year:
37987, conf, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 144-98-4A-9-1H,
36768, conf, Hess, CA-Russell Smith-155-96-2425H-10,

Monday, October 18, 2021: 12 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 236 for the year:
None.

Sunday, October 17, 2021: 12 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 236 for the year:
None.

Saturday, October 16, 2021: 12 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 236 for the year:
None.
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TSMC Update: 2 NM Chips In Development -- October 17, 2021

Link to April 26, 2021, update. TSMC update: 2nm in development, 3nm and 4nm on track for 2022. 

TSMC was the first company to start high volume manufacturing (HVM) of chips using its N5 (5 nm) process technology in mid-2020.

Initially, the node was used solely for TSMC's alpha customers — Apple and HiSilicon. Shipments to the latter ceased on September 14, which left all of the leading-edge capacity to Apple.

By now, more customers are ready with their N5 designs, so the adoption of this node is growing. Meanwhile, TSMC says more customers are planning to use N5 family of technologies (including N5, N5P, and N4) than it expected just several months ago.

For blog entry noting this development, see this link.

Semiconductor chips are tracked at this post at the blog. 

I don't know how thick the average Pringles chip is but traditional potato chips are made by slcing raw potatoes into pieces that are between 0.035 and 0.070 inches thick.

0.050 inch = 1,270,000 nm. 

Keywords: Pringles, TSMC, OMG.

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CLR: 2Q21 -- Anticipating 3Q21 -- October 17, 2021

In a long note like this, there will be content and typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source. 

CLR is tracked here.

CLR is scheduled to report 3Q21 earnings, November 1, 2021.

EPS: previous two quarters:

  • estimate, both quarters: 55 cents:
  • actual, both quarters: 91 cents

EPS: 3Q21, forecast: $1.17

This might be a good time to remind folks of CLR's 2Q21 earnings call. Transcript here.

Some highlights, facts and comments interspersed; hard to tell the difference:

  • earnings call focused mostly on the Bakken;
  • no mention of the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale; watch for that in the 3Q21 earnings call; my hunch: won't be mentioned
  • significant free cash flow being returned to shareholders
    • quarterly dividend increased to 15 cents per share; previous 11 cents
    • opted for $1 billion share buyback vs larger dividend
    • record-breaking $634 million free cash flow
  • reduced net debt by $284 million; 2Q21 debt: $4.59 billion
    • $284 million / $4.59 billion = at this rate, only 16 quarters to go, or four years -- in the big scheme of things, that seems pretty amazing;
  • ytd: $1.34 billion in free cash flow
    • most recent quarter accounted for 21%; straight-line: 25%
  • exceeded production guidance; currently delivering 167,000 boepd
  • hedging
    • unhedged on crude oil
    • natural gas: 50% of CLR's volume currently hedged
    • but no hedging whatsoever in 2022
  • free cash flow
    • as of the end of 2Q21, CLR had already generated free cash flow forecast for the entirety of 2021
    • free cash flow potential this year: $2.4 billion; that would be at a slightly fast rater than first half 2021;
  • CAPEX: has not changed; reinvestment rate is trending toward 35%
  • debt outlook looks great at $50 - $55 WTI
  • production forecast, for 2021:
    • 900,000 to one million bcf/day (that needs to be fact checked; transcript error)
  • reminder: new futures contract to start trading by end of year: the Midland WTI American Gulf Coast
    • task force led by Harold Hamm; along with efforts by Magellan and EPD
  • operations
    • brought on 108 gross operated wells: 70 - Bakken; 38 - Oklahoma
    • Bakken type curves right on track
    • 45% more boe per $1,000 spent in the first twelve months than CLR did in 2018
  • DAPL: 1.6 million bopd; Bakken produced on average 1.1 million bopd in May, 2021
  • Long Creek Unit: eleven completions in 2Q21; costing $6.1 million / well
  • most interesting: CLR feels there is an excess of five million bbls/day crude oil production on a global basis;
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Elon Musk, Electricity, And Road To California -- October 17, 2021

Elon Musk: I guess because this story posted over the weekend a lot of folks will miss it. It will be interesting if this is covered on CNBC Monday? The Daily Star is reporting that Elon Musk's wealth swelled to an astonishing $230 billion, following a share sale at SpaceX, making Musk richer than Bill Gates and Warren Buffett combined. From the linked article:

Musk’s obscene personal fortune increased following a share sale at SpaceX as well the strong performance of Tesla stock.

Bezos had previously held the title as the world's richest person, with a boom at Amazon over the coronavirus pandemic seeing his net worth climb to $191 billion (£139 billion).

Musk is now richer than Bill Gates and Warren Buffett combined, both of whom have previously held the title as the world's richest person.

Comment: so what's so "obscene" about that?

Road to California: link to The WSJ. This is another must-read story. California scrambles to find electricity to offset plant closures. State to struggle with coming loss of gas-fired power plants and its last remaining nuclear facility to transition to renewable energy.

  • the nuclear plant provides nearly 10 percent of all electricity generated in the state
  • the California Public Utilities Commission has ordered utilities to buy an unprecedented amount of renewable energy and battery storage as the state phases out four natural-gas-fired power plants and retires Diablo Canyon, the state’s last nuclear plant, starting in 2024;
  • from where does one think those batteries will be coming? See previous note: Elon Musk is now the richest man in the world, surpassing Bill Gates and Warren Buffett combined.
  • it should be noted there is minimal EV penetration in California;

Not so fast: this story was published three days ago, so it's very current. It appears that ... well, I don't have time for this. If interested, go to the link. This is all I need to know:

It's the latest setback for the project, originally expected to cost $33 billion and be completed last year. Today the vision of shuttling passengers between Los Angeles and San Francisco in less than three hours is a distant dream. The first leg of rideable track, connecting two cities in the Central Valley, won't start until at least 2029, and the project's costs have ballooned to $98 billion.

Little political will seems to exist to either kill the project outright or to give it more resources, leaving construction to continue without a long-term plan.

At the center of the latest dispute is how soon to electrify the line, which rail officials say is a necessity to make the train high speed — the whole idea of the project that voters were sold on. They want to enter into a contract next year for a firm to design and construct an electrified track and system and to maintain it for 30 years, effectively locking in the state for the long haul.

Takeaway: Merced, CA, at center of boondoggle. Might be interesting to track politics in this district.

Bullet train is tracked here.

The original road to California: Route 66, New Mexico.This is a great link sent to me by a reader. One could spend all night on this one. And I did. LOL.

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