Another Southwest Airlines Weather Alert -- October 12, 2021

An alert reader notes another weather alert involving Southwest Airlines. Due to "multiple slide-offs" this landing strip has been closed for two hours. Link here. 

In addition, it looks like the airline won't be flying into the Bakken any time soon. Winter is here.

On a serious note: I do not recall significant freezing or snowfall prior to Halloween when I was growing up in Williston, ND.

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Covid Vaccine Rollout

Prior to the three day "Columbus Day weekend," the number of vaccinations were trending toward one million vaccinations daily. Then, horrendous numbers over the three-day weekend, extending into Tuesday.

Average daily number of vaccinations given over the previous seven days:

• Monday, October 11, 2021: 867,343
• Monday, October 4, 2021: 893,520
• Monday, September 27, 2021: 632,435

It was about the time "we" were trending towards 600,000 vaccinations / day that the administration threatened mandates.

• Monday, September 20, 2021: 772,308
• Monday, September 13, 2021: 772,190

Notes From All Over -- Part 2 -- October 12, 2021

Fischer Investments: after a year or so of Ken Fisher being absent from commercials for his company, I see that he has returned. For the first time in a long time, I see him in a new Fisher Investment commercial today. 

Apple, Inc: has just announced its second fall event -- Monday, October 18, 2021. This confounds the "experts." LOL. Because we are already well into the month of October, experts thought the date would be much later in October, and then this: Apple's events are "always" on Tuesday. This one is on a Monday.

Southwest Airlines: Jim Cramer does not buy the story. Nor do I. My hunch: Jim Cramer knows Phil LaBeau is a tool for the airlines (and the auto manufacturers). The new meme: Southwest Airlines' business model doesn't work. All of a sudden, the model doesn't work after all these years? LOL. David Farber, CNBC, refuses to discuss it; doesn't want to touch it with a ten-foot pole.

Permian: future wells will not be brought online by APACHE without adequate natural gas takeaway, going forward -- CEO. Link here. Pre-market: with price of oil continuing to go up, APA is down about a third of a percent in pre-market trading. EOG, also down (about 0.2%); Pioneer down bout 0.5%. Later in trading day: APA up 0.65%; EOG still down 0.27%; and PXD: down about 1.5%.

Covid origins: hopefully not blocked by a paywall. I was able to access full article. I ignored what I wanted to ignore -- I'm pretty bored with the origins of the virus -- but I enjoyed the photos. From The Washington Post. 

Israel: link here -- note: the Israelis have not -- nor has anyone -- immunized the reservoir.

Stagflation: A Reader Weighs In -- October 12, 2021

Definition: In economics, stagflation or recession-inflation is a situation in which the inflation rate is high, the economic growth rate slows, and unemployment remains steadily high. It presents a dilemma for economic policy, since actions intended to lower inflation may exacerbate unemployment. Wikipedia.

Once fossil fuels reaches the breaking point.  A price point caused by the green new deal (carbon tax/methane tax), or whatever the Dems call the kickback to funnel money to wind and solar with much siphoned off to fund Dems election, think Solandra.

Limited NG to east coast.  Of course all fossil fuels are the fault.  But we know it is pipeline.

Average citizen will not be able to function with high costs for energy and all products because of transportation costs.  Business will pull the help wanted signs.

We are not looking at stagflation.  More like deep recession to depression.  Stocks will start to fall at that time. Bitcoin will be the last reserve.

---------------: was a huge landowner, blacksmith, developed a rust resistant wheat.  At one time sold enough to plant a million acres in ND, SD, MT, MN and Canada.

The depression just about took him out.  One report: lost a million dollars in stocks.  Only the land holdings carried him through.

Women are dropping out of the workforce or not choosing to re-enter.

Printing money only lasts so long.  Germany didn't have enough wheelbarrows.

Not ready for prime time.

Questions: how many are available to work and choose not too.  To this point automation has delayed much free spending the last forty years.  I don't know when but the chicken will come home to roost.  No free lunch.

The reader mentions recession / depression. I'm thinking regional recessions. 

Notes From All Over -- Part 1 -- The Culver City Edition -- October 12, 2021

Southwest Airlines, weather:

The Permian: shale oil is booming again. Link to Yahoo!Finance. But looks who drilling.

Enbridge: this is the third time I've posted / linked this story. It's that big a deal. Zacks article here.

Southwest Airlines: apparently the weather is still  impacting Southwest Airlines.

Apple, Inc: previously posted, another huge story that needs repeating: Apple is building a massive new campus straddling Los Angeles and Culver City. Archived. In addition to everything else, this will re-vitalize that area of west LA; this is huge:

• will be located along National, Venice, and Washington boulevards
• two huge facilities; connected by a "shared wall"
• in the big scheme of things, this is prime real estate in an incredible part of the city
• about ten miles up Venice Boulevard from the ocean, Venice Beach
• this will really, really re-invigorate this area
• the addresses of the new buildings are 8825 National Blvd. and 8871 Washington Blvd. in Culver City, and 8827 and 8829 National Blvd. and 8876, 8884, 8886 and 8888 Venice Blvd. in the City of Los Angeles.

Apple, Inc: close to another milestone -- will join Saudi Aramco with $100 billion in profits, annually. Link here. In another five years, three other companies could join the club: Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft.

T: I've long lost interest in ATT as an investment, and it's only going to get worse, but a two-second soundbite regarding ATT, the telcos, and streaming reaffirmed my excitement for copper.

The Fed: may taper but it's not going to start raising rates any time soon. Analyst. Link here. 

$80-WTI: won't destroy demand or hurt the economy. Link to Tsvetana Paraskova. 

Huge: Netflix partners with Walmart.

Target, posted September 23, 2021:

• Target announces it will not hire additional seasonal workers for the holidays.Obviously our local Target store did not get the memo. The store has big signs at the entrance advertising seasonal hiring at high hourly rates.

Sports: I've never cared for Jon Gruden but I never would have wanted to see this. Resigns as Raiders coach after more leaked e-mails from 2011 reveal homophobic, misogynistic language. Link here. This is ten years ago, but didn't folks know by then that e-mails never disappear?

New vaccines, medicines to prevent / treat Covid: Merck and AstraZeneca.

Nvidia.

Chariots on fire: LG to pay upwards of $2 billion to GM over Bolt EV battery fires. Link here. In pre-market trading, GM is up 1%.

WTI Starts The Day At $81.10; One Well Coming Off Confidential List -- October 12, 2021

US: economy can easily handle $130 - $150 WTI. That's why folks are not screaming about $80-WTI. And Resident Biden knows that. 

Europe: energy crisis -- another major manufacturer will stop production November - December, 2021. Link here. Spanish steel maker Sidenor.

India: could soon be on the brink of a power crisis. Coal. CNBC.

NE USA: price of heating oil could surge this winter. Link here. Remember: lack of natural gas pipelines.

ISO NE: link here. Seems to spike every weekday morning from 5:00 a.m. to 6:00 a.m., then drops back again before spiking again, albeit a bit lower, starting about 7:00 a.m.

US gasoline exports: new seasonal highs in May, June, and July. Link here. Resident Biden's team says they will take all necessary steps to tackle high price of gasoline. Well, this seems like a good place to start. LOL. Of course, the refiners will simply scale back operations. 

High price of gasoline: even the political class in Washington, DC, can't miss it now. Link here.

High price of gasoline: only eight states now average less than $3 / gallon -- OK, MS, TX, AR, LA, KS, AL, MO. Average price across the US: $3.25. The really cool thing about high-priced gasoline: all that cashback on credit cards. LOL.

Saudi Arabia:

• pumping about 9.6 million boepd
• says they have capacity for 11.5 million boepd
• targets new CAPEX to increase capacity to 13 million boepd

California: apparently it passed -- California bans gas lawn mowers and leaf blowers. Link here. One needs to read the law closely but the press is reporting that California bans the sale of these items, not the use. Amazon will have a field day. 

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs, updated COB by NDIC:

$81.10	10/12/2021	10/12/2020	10/12/2019	10/12/2018	10/12/2017
Active Rigs	29	13	58	67	59

One well coming off confidential list --

Tuesday, October 12, 2021: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 235 for the year:

• 36916, conf, Whiting, Satterthwaite 14-35TFHU, Robinson Lake, see this note;

RBN Energy: Did Putin pop the global natural gas bubble, or give Europe a last chance to stock up? 

For six months, European natural gas prices skyrocketed higher almost every day. The soaring prices made sense. Gas inventories in Europe were low following higher-than-normal demand last winter. Economies were recovering from COVID-19. Russia was curtailing gas deliveries. It all added up to a likely supply shortage during the winter of 2021-22. And the market did what markets do: anticipate. Even though the next winter season was months away, gas buyers went to work, stocking up on supplies like squirrels gathering nuts. The more prices increased, the more panic buying kicked in. By last Tuesday, October 5, the European TTF price was up more than 5X what it had been on May 1. Then, on Wednesday, a few comments from Vladimir Putin seemed to pop the bubble, and within a few days the Dutch TTF price was down 27%. Is everything OK now? Was the gas-price run-up all just speculative buying and short covering? Or is a supply crunch still on the horizon, and this is just the calm before the storm? In today’s RBN blog, we explore those questions.