Wednesday, September 15, 2021

Ivermectin -- India Update -- September 15, 2021

Updates

September 21, 2021: Ivermectin: ranchers running into shortages.

Later, 6:59 p.m. PT: by popular request, the link: https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/09/huge-uttar-pradesh-india-announces-state-covid-19-free-proving-effectiveness-deworming-drug-ivermectin/#post-comments.  

Original Post 

I always find it interesting the stories that don't get picked up by the mainstream media. Another example, to continue the ivermectin experience. I think I'll "leave off" the link and simply present the headline and lede. It's a pretty amazing story. Imagine if this was printed in The NY Times or The Washington Post or even on CNN. 

Headline: largest state in India announces that the state is Covid-19 free. Health officials attribute it to ivermectin. 

In addition to now being Covid-free, the recovery rate of those affected earlier increased to 98.7% following introduction of ivermectin. 

The state of Uttar Pradesh, India, has a population of 241 million people and has the highest population in India. It is now Covid-19 free. 

Overall, the state has a total of 199 active cases ... repeat, a 199 active cases, while the positivity rate came down to less than 0.01 percent. As per the state's health bulletin, Uttar Pradesh reported only 11 new Covid-19 cases and zero deaths in the previous 24 hours.

So much more at the story. 

The state dispenses a four-tab snack pack as a preventative in all family contact.

Vaccination rate in this state of over 240 million people? 5.8%. The US: around 54% fully vaccinated. 

The worldometers.info is quite remarkable for India. Compare it to that of the United States.

All Roads Lead To Amazon -- The EV Saga Continues -- September 15, 2021

A year or so ago, I wrote "EV Truck Excitement Is Off The Chart -- All Roads Lead To Amazon."

Today, a reader sent me this link, from Reuters via Yahoo!Finance: Amazon-backed startup Rivian starts production of electric pick-up.

Amazon.com Inc-backed Rivian's first electric pick-up has rolled off the production line, the company's chief executive said on Tuesday. 

This makes Rivian the first to bring an electric pick-up to the market, ahead of Tesla Inc, General Motors and other players. 

"This morning our first customer vehicle drove off our production line in Normal," founder and Chief Executive Officer RJ Scaringe said in a tweet https://twitter.com/RJScaringe, which included images of Rivian's R1T electric pick-up truck at its plant in Normal, Illinois. 

This is a pick-up truck, not an 18-wheeler tractor. 

The world's biggest truck manufacturer might have their first 18-wheeler tractor roll off the assembly line by the end of October. I'll post some schematics when I get a chance. The batteries are so heavy ....

EIA Weekly Petroleum Report -- September 15, 2021

WTI:

  • prior to this report, WTI was trading just below $73/bbl
  • after this report was released, WTI moved slightly ahead of $73
  • WTI is now up almost 4% for the day (actual: 3.66%)
  • up $.258/bbl
  • trading at $73.04
  • Resident Biden asking for telephone number for AARP (he meant to ask for telephone number for OPEC but was making a small joke for benefit of his staff who are exempt from any vaccine mandate). Another joke.
  • not to worry: surge in price of oil is only transitory; will "go away" when Joe Biden goes away.

EIA weekly report, link here.

  • US crude oil inventories decreased by a whopping 6.5 million bbls of oil (Hurricane Ida about two weeks ago)
  • US crude oil inventories now stand at 417.4 million bbls, 7% below the five-year average
  • refiners are operating at 82.1% of their operable capacity (considering all the stories about refineries being down after Hurricane Ida, I thought it would be worse)
  • US crude oil imports averaged 5.8 million bpd last week, yawn; down 48,000 bbls per day -- isn't that interesting? --
  • US crude oil imports are currently averaging 6.0 million bbls per day, 13.3% more than the same four-week period last year; last year was the year of the plague, if I recall correctly
  • total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.9 million bbls last week and are 45 below the five-year average
  • distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.7 million bbls last week; distillate fuel inventories are now down an incredible 13% below the five-year average; this all has to do with the Keystone XL being killed
  • jet fuel product supplies was up 59.1% compare with same period last year; we need to see comparison to 2019 to put this in proper context

Crude oil imports:

Crude Oil Imports





Week (week-over-week)

Date of Report

Raw Data, millions of bbls

Change (millions of bbls)

Four-week period comparison

Week 17

July 8, 2020

7.4

1.400

-8.500%

Week 18

July 15, 2020

7.5

-1.800

-10.200%

Week 19

July 22, 2020

5.9

0.373

-13.500%

Week 20

July 29, 2020

5.1

-0.800

-13.600%

Week 21

August 5, 2020

6.0

0.900

-18.100%

Week 67

June 23, 2021

6.9

0.197

-1.00%

Week 68

June 30, 2021

6.4

-0.500

2.80%

Week 69

July 8, 2021

5.9

-0.500

-2.20%

Week 70

July 14, 2021

6.2

0.347

-0.10%

Week 71

July 21, 2021

7.1

0.900

2.90%

Week 72

July 28, 2021

6.5

-0.600

6.90%

Week 73

August 4, 2021

6.4

-0.075

15.80%

Week 74

August 11, 2021

6.5

-0.036

16.30%

Week 75

August 18, 2021

6.4

-0.064

14.10%

Week 76

August 25, 2021

6.2

-0.193

8.80%

Week 77

September 1, 2021

6.3

-0.183

13.90%

Week 78

September 8, 2021

5.8

-0.500

12.20%

Week 79

September 15, 2021

5.8

-0.048

13.30%

 Distillate fuel inventories:

Distillate Fuel Inventories




Week

Date of Report

Change in Millions

Relative to 5-Yr Avg

Week 42

June 10, 2021

4.40

-5.0%

Week 43

June 16, 2021

-1.00

-6.0%

Week 44

June 23, 2021

1.80

-4.0%

Week 45 

June 30, 2021

0.90

-5.0%

Week 46

July 8, 2021

1.60

-6.0%

Week 47

July 14, 2021

3.70

-4.0%

Week 48

July 21, 2021

-1.30

-4.0%

Week 49

July 28, 2021

-3.10

-7.0%

Week 50

August 4, 2021

0.80

-6.0%

Week 51

August 11, 2021

1.80

-6.0%

Week 52

August 18, 2021

-2.70

-8.0%

Week 53

August 25, 2021

0.60

-8.0%

Week 54

September 1, 2021

-1.70

-9.0%

Week 55

September 9, 2021

-3.10

-12.0%

Week 56

September 15, 2021

-1.70

-13.0%

To Infinity And Beyond -- September 15, 2021

To infinity and beyond:

  • WTI up almost 3% in early morning trading, as UK switches to oil to replace natural gas to provide electricity;
  • WTI up over $2/bbl
  • WTI trading at $72.53 
  • and based on US equity markets, not many are paying attention.

NOG, CLR: Top oil and gas stocks for 4Q21: two of them are in the Bakken. Link here. Of the three fastest growing oil and gas stocks, NOG and CLR are two of them.

To infinity and beyond: wholesale price of European natural gas is now equivalent to $150.50 a bbl (I like the precision, LOL) -- higher than Brent crude ever was during the 2008 price boom (and, ye, barrel of oil equivalent pricing has its challenges, but worth using to show magnitude of crisis. Link here. 

The "Texas Freeze" hits the UK. This is similar to what happened in Texas earlier this year -- City A.M. via oilprice: two more UK energy firms go bust amid record power prices. 

Breaking: UK natural gas wholesale prices are JUMPING twenty percent today to fresh record highs as trades brace for more UK gas-fired power station demand after the loss of a key electricity interconnector between the UK and France. Link here and also below. 

Forget gas-to-coal switching. UK is now in the gas-to-furniture switching.

UK nuked: this is quite incredible. Electricity prices in the UK and Europe are surging, clearly unprecedented, and most because the wind is not blowing. 

The UK gets a fair amount of electricity from nuclear power plants in France. Yesterday it was being reported that there was a huge fire at a key electricity converter station in the UK which shut down a major cable that brings power form France. It's my understanding that is one of two such cables bringing in power to the UK from France. Bloomberg is reporting that the converter station will be off-line until October. Link here for social medial comments. See if you can spot the irony in the photo at this link.
Renewable energy: the faux environmentalists tells us batteries are the answer. With no wind for two weeks, no batteries ar being charged in the UK from renewable energy sources Link here. 

Nord Stream 2: Russia comes close to admitting it's putting a squeeze on European natural gas supplies. Who wudda thought? Is anyone paying attention? Link here. Weaponizing natural gas? If this isn't weaponizing natural gas, I don't know what is.

The numbers:

  • WTI: $72.33
  • Brent: $75.35
  • Natural gas: at highest levels since February, 2014.
  • DXY: 92.48; down slightly;
  • TYT: 1.295%, up slightly

And it's still not enough: federal tax collections set record through August, 2021. Link here. this is quite a story on so many levels. Through the first eleven months of fiscal 2021, the federal government has collected a record $3,586,456,000,000 in total taxes. Is that $3.6 trillion? 

Covid-19. For what it's worth and it's probably not worth much. These are graphs and most journalists appear unable to read graphs and/or are afraid to show them to their readers, link here.

  • Pfizer in blue -- and gets the gold
  • Moderna in green -- get the silver
  • AstraZeneca in red -- gets a participation trophy

******************************
Back to the Bakken

Top oil and gas stocks for 4Q21: two of them are in the Bakken. Link here.

Greenfield refinery outside national park in North Dakota: construction set to start in 2022? That's what is being reported in the Grand Forks Herald. Paywall? Try this link. And that's the problem with paywalls: they take me away from ads I would otherwise see, and they lead me to other sources for news.

The proposed Davis refinery, in financial difficulty, has experienced multiple delays since state environmental regulators allowed Houston, Texas-based Meridian Energy Group to build the facility in 2018. its permit after the lockdown refinery in litigation with environmental groups and, before the second deadline expired on June 12, state regulators gave the project an additional 90 days to begin construction or risk losing its license.

This time around, Meridian has met state requirements to begin construction before a revised deadline last Sunday, allowing the company to keep its license active.

Active rigs*:

$72.53
9/15/202109/15/202009/15/201909/15/201809/15/2017
Active Rigs24*12646556

*current count released at COB.

No wells coming off confidential list according to the NDIC. 

RBN Energy: record global natural gas prices signal more room for North American LNG (well, duh).

It has been a chaotic 18 months for North American LNG and the global gas market. In a short time, international gas markets went from oppressively oversupplied balances, high storage inventories, and historically low prices for much of 2020, to reckoning with panic-inducing supply shortage, low inventories, multi-year or all-time high prices in the biggest LNG-consuming regions. The resulting whiplash has transformed key aspects of the LNG market, including making a profound impact on the way existing LNG terminals operate, how projects secure funding and capacity commitments, and what offtakers expect for the next generation of LNG capacity buildout. 
The tight market appears to have settled the question of whether more export capacity is needed, at least for now, but the market’s sharp U-turn has also put potential offtakers on edge and underscored the need for contractual flexibility. Additionally, pressure to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is higher than ever, and LNG offtakers are increasingly demanding greener solutions to address government regulations and public concerns. This convergence of factors has put the LNG market at a crossroads. Taking all of the lessons learned from the past 18 months and before, the industry must now forge a new path forward.

Total Energies -- September 14, 2021

Conversion, euros to dollars, link here.

  • 0.66 euros = $0.78

Announced today, link here:

From nasdaq.com, dividend history, link here;