Happy Birthday -- July 12, 2021

Oil: Biden has few trump cards with OPEC. Link to ArgusMedia. By killing the Keystone XL, Biden has severely limited his options when dealing with OPEC. Wow, what a dufus.

Nearly six months after taking office, US president Joe Biden has finally noticed Opec. Rising gasoline prices, and the potential gift they present to his Republican opponents, have helped focus his gaze, and his team has reached out to Opec+ to resolve a continuing row over output policy. But tense relations with Saudi Arabia give Biden less scope for influencing the producer group than recent US presidents. 

Iran is Biden's potential trump card in getting more Opec oil on the market, but his promise to restore the Iran nuclear deal is proving difficult to implement. Washington and Tehran have resorted to brinkmanship since the most recent round of talks concluded last month, and Iran has not yet extended a temporary monitoring deal with UN nuclear watchdog the IAEA that expired on 24 June. This is truly amazing: his trump card is getting more OPEC oil on the market (Iran) -- after he killed the Keystone XL. The ArgusMedia article did not mention the Keystone XL.

*************************************
Happy Birthday

We're not sure where she thinks she is going, TutorTime or the beach? 

The "big" present she got for her recent birthday: two fluffy gerbils. Or are they hamsters? Whatever. Everyone was afraid her dad was going to get her the real thing. LOL.

Note: posted July 12, 2021, but her birthday is on a different day. We just tend to celebrate her birthday on/about July 10, 2021 for various reasons. 

We had a pool party for her at the apartment complex. It may have been her best birthday party ever. 

*******************************
Hulu

What I'm watching: Ramen Heads. Absolutely fascinating. I've watched two other movies on ramen; The first two were "movies" -- one was "Japanese," and one was "American"; this one is a documentary, if that makes sense. From IMDB:

In 'Ramen Heads,' Osamu Tomita, Japan's reigning king of ramen, takes us deep into his world, revealing every single step of his obsessive approach to creating the perfect soup and noodles, and his relentless search for the highest-quality ingredients. In addition to Tomita's story, the film also profiles five other notable ramen shops, each with its own philosophy and flavour, which exemplify various different aspects the ramen world.

************************
Scotch: The Mini Bottle

From whiskyadvocate, June 28, 2021:

Once relegated to airplanes and minibars, the 50 ml bottle became increasingly popular as a result of COVID-related restrictions especially among craft distillers who were kept from hosting events or opening their tasting rooms. To stay afloat, small distilleries turned to minis (which are 50 ml), sending out samples for virtual tastings, and connecting with drinkers from afar.

“Filling 50 ml bottles is notoriously difficult, and normally not known as a profit center for craft businesses, but we saw them as an investment,” says Gareth Moore, CEO of Virginia Distillery Co.. The distillery launched its first single malt, Courage and Conviction, in April 2020, at the start of the pandemic, and used 50 ml bottles as part of the rollout to reach more people.

Catoctin Creek co-founder Scott Harris says that they resisted minis at first, but eventually saw the appeal. “Store tastings have stopped completely nationwide, and without tastings, there is no easy way to get customers to try our products before committing to a larger 750 ml purchase,” he explains. But with minis of whiskeys like Roundstone Rye, Catoctin Creek can get its products into people’s glasses even without the face-to-face interaction.

The benefit of “try before you buy” applies especially to more expensive whiskies. If the pandemic left some strapped for cash, minis offer a way to sample and enjoy something new without a big outlay. James Saxon, assistant whisky maker for Compass Box, says the company has seen an uptick in sales of its 50 ml gift pack—which includes The Peat Monster, Spice Tree, and The Story of the Spaniard—and is currently exploring how to offer more whiskies in the smaller format.

Oasis Reports A Fairly Respectable Thelen Federal Well In Banks Oil Field -- July 12, 2021

Ten-year treasury: 1.351%. Okay. 

NASDAQ: hits new all-time intra-day record. AAPL flat but slightly positive but now trending down. 

Most interesting television commercial last night: the Disney+ ad during the NBA game in Milwaukee. Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN "bundle" for $13.99 / month. 

Roku: must be doing something right. Like Netflix, it appears to have figured out how to transition to the new reality. Roku is up over $5.00 today. Funny I should mention Netflix; the first Roku model was developed in collaboration with Netflix, introduced in May, 2008. Netflix is up nicely today, also. As is TSLA.

Spokesperson: Brad Bellflower for Apartments.com. Without question, the best series of television commercials right now. 

Cuba: I have no idea what's going on in Cuba right now, but without question, the one western hemisphere country that has been most "let down" by the UN is Cuba. 

FDA: the big question -- why is the FDA not granting full approval to the vaccines?  

Hess: will report three huge wells later this fall. Phenomenal runs being reported now.

********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$73.49	7/12/2021	07/12/2020	07/12/2019	07/12/2018	07/12/2017
Active Rigs	23	11	56	67	58

One well coming off the confidential list;

Monday, July 12, 2021: 5 for the month, 5 for the quarter, 185 for the year:

• 37018, 481, Oasis, Thelen Federal 5397 44-34 14TX, t1/21; cum 72K 5/21; Thelen Federal wells are tracked here;
  

Sunday, July 11, 2021: 4 for the month, 4 for the quarter, 184 for the year:

• None.

Saturday, July 10, 2021: 4 for the month, 4 for the quarter, 184 for the year:

• None.

RBN Energy: US LNG feedgas rebounds as spring maintenance season rolls off. Archived.

Global gas prices have had a record-breaking year so far, with JKM in Asia hitting all-time seasonal highs in spring, and TTF in Europe last week reaching the highest level since 2008. Prices have been spurred on by a global LNG market that is undersupplied and hunting for additional cargoes. 

If you were just looking at U.S. feedgas levels over the past several weeks, though, you would never know that we are in the middle of an incredible bull run. 

U.S. LNG feedgas deliveries have trailed below full-utilization levels for more than a month due to a combination of spring pipeline maintenance, LNG terminal maintenance, and operational issues. 

The reduced availability of pipeline and liquefaction capacity led feedgas deliveries in June to average 9.35 Bcf/d, or about 85% of full capacity. However, this was just a small and short-lived setback before what is likely to be a breakthrough summer for U.S. LNG. 

Feedgas demand is already back above 95% utilization and is poised to head even higher over the next few months both from new liquefaction capacity coming online and potentially from spot market cargo production. In today’s blog, we take a look at the impact of spring maintenance on U.S. LNG production and potential feedgas demand growth in the months ahead.

Hess Will Report Three Huge EN-Joyce Wells -- July 11, 2021

Remember how "everyone" says the daughter wells will never do as well as the parent wells. 

Read on. 

The Hess EN-Joyce wells in the Manitou oil field are tracked here. 

A reader recently alerted me to these wells telling me that they should be huge, and that they should be coming off the confidential list shortly. 

The wells were drilled quickly, and completed quickly; the fracks appear to be "moderate" fracks for the Bakken. 

They remain confidential, but runs are being reported:

• 37977, conf, Hess, EN-Joyce-LE-156-94-1721H-6, Manitou, from the permit, sections 16/17/20 & 21-156-94; 844 FSL 749 FWL; 33-061-04835; fracked 4/7/21 - 4/11/21; 10.7 million gallons of water; 85.2% water by mass; note four days for the frack; generally, I expect a seven- to 10-day frack; to come off confidential list, 10/24/21;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2021	51160	58241
4-2021	18287	25524

• 37978, conf, Hess, EN-Joyce-LE-156-94-1721H-5, Manitou, from the permit, sections 16/17/20 & 21-156-94; 844 FSL 782 FWL; 33-061-04836; fracked 4/1/21 - 4/8/21; 11 million gallons of water; 85.5% water by mass; to come off confidential list, 10/29/21;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2021	63032	102218
4-2021	5259	776

• 37979, conf, Hess, EN-Joyce-LE-156-94-1721H-4, Manitou, from the permit, sections 16/17/20 & 21-156-94; 844 FSL 815 FWL; 33-061-04837; fracked 4/1/21 - 4/8/21; 11 million gallons of water; 85.5% water by mass; to come off confidential list, 11/7/21;

• spud: March 3, 2021
• cease drilling: March 13, 2021
• logging services began at 8,164' at 12:42 p.m.CST, March 5, 2021
• KOP, 10,407', reached at 1:59 p.m. CST on March 6, 2021
• KOP, 10,407', reached at 4:51 a.m. CST on March 6, 2021
• drilling the curve began: 1: 59 p.m. CST, March 6, 2021
• total depth of the curve reached at 10,988; measured depth / 10,272.5' TVD at 9:10 p.m. on March 6, 2021;
• TD reached at 6:15 p.m. CST, March 13, 2021

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2021	47307	27719

The other Hess EN-Joyce wells:

• 17887, the parent well, off-line; never did well; will be interesting to see if it comes back on line; IA/165, Hess, EN-Joyce-156-94-1720H-1, Manitou, t6/09; cum 91K 7/20; remains off line 5/21;
  
• 27313, not an EN-Joyce well, but sited on same pad as the "original" EN-Joyce pad; also drilled back in 2014; not a particularly good well; remains on line; never came off line, 781, Hess, EN-Eva-156-94-1621H-1, Manitou, t9/14; cum 121K 5/21;
• 27314, drilled back in 2014, not a particularly good well; remains on line; never came off line, 349, Hess, EN-Joyce-LE-156-94-1721H-1, Manitou, t9/14; cum 121K 5/21;
  
• 27315, drilled back in 2014, not a particularly good well; remains on line; was taken off line for only two months; appears to be coming back on line 5/21; 142, Hess, EN-Joyce-LE-156-94-1721H-2, Manitou, t8/14; cum 149K 5/21;
  
• 27316, drilled back in 2014, not a particularly good well; was taken off line 7/20 and remains off line, 4/21; 490, Hess, EN-Joyce-LE-156-94-1721H-3, Manitou, taken off line 7/20; returning to production, 5/21; cum 130K 7/20;
  

For Investors: McKinsey And Company's Outlook -- July 11, 2021

Something to keep you occupied between now and tomorrow morning. From McKinsey & Company from earlier last week. It supports my view that in the big scheme of things, for investors, Covid-19 was not the Black Swan many made it out to be.

Turning the corner. Are we heading for a 50 percent economic expansion? Had anyone suggested in early 2020 that there could be a boom decade in the offing, many people would have fainted at their (WFH) desks. But history suggests that we could see that kind of expansion after a recession, with the right moves from public- and private-sector leaders 

Two tracks. In March 2020, we argued that the imperatives of our time were the battles to flatten the twin curves of viral spread and economic shock. We said then that there was no trade-off between the virus and the economy, and that has been borne out: no country kept its economy moving well without also taking control over the virus.

Uncertainty is receding. Today, after multiple peaks of viral spread and with the COVID-19-vaccine rollout progressing, some regions are finally getting a handle on both the disease and the economy. Although leaders have applied public-health measures and economic stimulus with varying intensity, government support through fiscal and monetary policies has unequivocally worked. Employment rates are recovering, though at different degrees, in all countries. Even nations that are still facing challenges are likely to see strong headline GDP growth in 2021. It’s now possible to imagine a recovery that will mean a better quality of life for more people—and a more sustainable future for the planet.

The big question. What should public- and private-sector leaders focus on next? Three broad beliefs shape our answers. First, 3 to 4 percent annual global economic growth is achievable with available technology—a “productivity miracle” isn’t needed. Second, we don’t have to choose between sustained and inclusive growth; the goals can be complementary. Third, the medical advances and process accelerations achieved in response to the pandemic open the possibility that we can make rapid and unprecedented progress against persistent health problems.

Prosperity for all. If global leaders set the expectations that these outcomes are possible, and act on them, then the world could be on the cusp of a new age of growth in jobs and income. The road will be rough in places. The first year of the pandemic and the policies designed in response have had a profound impact on how people view their governments, how well economies are positioned to rebound, and how much public and private debt has been accumulated along the way.

It’s an extraordinary opportunity—and a commensurate challenge. If the world’s public- and private-sector leaders aren’t able to capitalize on the promise of prosperity for all, the recovery could end up adding only 10 to 20 percent to GDP, less equitably distributed, less sustainable, and with worse outcomes for global health and the environment.

Incredibly Remiss Not To Have Followed This Story -- Huge Story -- Deserves More Exposure -- July 11, 2021

I was completely remiss not to have followed this story all these years. It's a big deal. 

From Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

The Executive Committee of the Western Dakota Energy Association recently recognized Janet Sanford for her efforts in managing the technical transformation of WDEA's LoadPass Permits System.

Sanford is retiring this year after serving as LoadPass operator since 2011. She started her business, TeamWorks Consulting, in 2008, and shortly thereafter began providing data entry services for WDEA's truck permit system. The association began developing an online web application for the LoadPass system in 2010, at which time Sanford worked with the LoadPass operator and software vendor to help design and test the system.

LoadPass has evolved considerably since then. As industry activity increased, it became obvious the counties needed a way to get the word out when road restrictions were imposed, so a notification system was developed in 2012. LoadPass went entirely to paperless permits in 2015, the same year work began on developing an interactive restricted road map. Further enhancements to the map have made it more user-friendly. It now functions in a way that lets users pick a starting point and destination, and the map fills in the best route to move the oversize load.

WDEA began offering its services to counties outside the oil-producing region in 2017. Currently 29 of the state's 53 counties and three cities participate in the system.

Before joining WDEA, Sanford worked as a real estate loan officer at McKenzie Bank (Cornerstone Bank) in Watford City for 10 years, served as McKenzie County School District business manager for 10 years, and was operations manager for a Minnesota-based software company.

An incredible story.