Sunday, April 11, 2021

The WPX Patricia Kelly Wells -- April 11, 2021

Updates

December 20, 2021: DUCs starting to be reported --

  • 37232, 2,409, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HA, Spotted Horn, 33-053-09306, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 216K 10/21; fracked 4/13/2021 - 4/19/21; another small frack: 4.9 million gallons of water; 82.925% water by mass; proppant 16.33% by mass; see this post; cum 313K 5/22;

September 24, 2021: still DUCs but production started to be reported; huge, huge wells; 

Original Post

The wells:

  • 37324, conf-->drl/NC-->drl/A, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HUL, Antelope, no production data, but this is one of the best oil fields in the Bakken, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 248K 5/22;
  • 37232, conf-->drl/NC-->drl/A, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HA, Spotted Horn, 33-053-09306, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 216K 10/21; fracked 4/13/2021 - 4/19/21; another small frack: 4.9 million gallons of water; 82.925% water by mass; proppant 16.33% by mass; see this post; cum 313K 5/22;
  • 37231, conf-->drl/NC-->drl/A, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HXL Spotted Horn, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 314K 5/22;
  • 37230, conf-->drl/NC-->drl/A, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HS, Spotted Horn, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 314K 5/22;
  • 23639, 1,482, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HB, Spotted Horn, t3/13; cum 388K 7/20; off line 8/20; remains off line 3/21; back on line; cum 441K 5/22;

Wells of interest to the south, these wells will be tracked here.

  • 37308, drl/NC-->drl/A, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HC, Spotted Horn, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 277K 5/22;
  • 37307, drl/NC-->drl/A, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HY, Spotted Horn, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 311K 5/22;
  • 37306, drl/NC-->drl/A, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HG, Spotted Horn, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 305K 5/22;
  • 37305, drl/NC-->drl/A, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HZ, Spotted Horn, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 284K 5/22;
  • 37304, drl/NC-->drl/A, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HIL, Spotted Horn, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 249K 5/22;

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Notes And Commentary

Let's see if the daughter wells are better than the parent well. Experts tell us that the daughter wells in shale always do worse than the parent wells.

Early production data:

  • 23639, 1,482, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HB, Spotted Horn, t3/13; cum 388K 7/20; off line 8/20; remains off line 3/21; back on line; cum 441K 5/22;

From the file report (one of the better file reports for discussion of the geology):

  • 27 miles east of Watford City,  on, or near, the Little Knife anticline
  • thickness of the middle Bakken, target: 10 feet thick
  • 84.7% of the well bore within the pay zone (below the current standard)
  • big rig, spud: October 27, 2012;
  • curve building began November 10, 2012; landed on November 12, 2012 (a bit longer than the current standard)
  • lateral: began drilling on November 15, 2012; concluded, November 26, 2012;
  • frack: 16 stages; 3.23 million lbs of proppant
  • early production:
BAKKEN1-201431650864131648589555541
BAKKEN12-201331734476881808549551213
BAKKEN11-201330584653321355549651360
BAKKEN10-20133147925098142541583765193
BAKKEN9-201330955895622649470004324
BAKKEN8-20133111106111373424450504176
BAKKEN7-2013281315913412403726103025758
BAKKEN6-2013301362013758380628660027952
BAKKEN5-2013251374813695504427088026575
BAKKEN4-2013282042520313679641352040737
BAKKEN3-20132022742220092461247019046504


From the well file:
Three contacts with the middle Bakken Limestone and two with the Low Gamma zone occurred while drilling the lateral section. 
The first contact occurred at approximately 12,000’ MD with a total of 430’ drilled below the pay zone in the middle Bakken Limestone. This out of pay zone footage was an intentional drop made through the section immediately out of intermediate casing in order to get a complete resistivity and gamma ray profile of the entire pay zone. This was requested by operations for future reference while drilling the lateral section. Once a full profile was achieved, the borehole immediately was built in section to get back into the center of the middle Bakken pay zone. 
The second contact occurred at approximately 16,000’ MD with the middle Bakken Limestone, resulting in 387’ drilled below the pay zone. This encounter was most likely attributed to bit deflection while bed lithologies were transitioning from a “flat” dip to a relatively upward dip. 
Two contacts with the Low Gamma zone at Patricia Kelly 2-1 HB occurred at approximately 18,400’ MD and approximately 20,000’ MD resulting in 403’ and 133’ drilled above the pay zone, respectively. 
Both of these out of zone footages were possibly attributed to bit deflection while drilling the well bore after initial builds in section to calculate bed thicknesses encountered and crossed up into the Low Gamma zone. 
The difficulty in turning it over back into the middle of the pay zone was most likely from the bit deflecting off the top of the target zone. 
The fifth contact was with the middle Bakken Limestone occurring at 21,200’ MD with 159’ drilled below the pay zone. Based on the response of the bit through this section, the difficulty in penetrating back up into the upper pay zone was again likely a result of bit deflection from the middle Bakken Limestone at the very end of the lateral section. 
The accumulated out-of-pay zone footage for at Patricia Kelly 2-1 HB was 1,512’, representing 15.3% of the total lateral footage out of zone.

The graphics:



 

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- April 11, 2021

The wells:


Oil Runs
MCF Sold
2-20211942222574
1-20212888833235
12-20202724529702
11-20202664423267
10-20201337310074
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20212798859251
1-20213178245363
12-20205548670260
11-20202653928983
10-20206360744020
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20212434228293
1-20213449739688
12-20203099833794
11-20203501330575
10-20201332310038
  • 37232, conf, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HA, Antelope, no production data, see this post;
  • 37324, conf, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HUL, Antelope, no production data, see this post;
  • 37833, drl/drl, Midwest AgEnergy Group, LLC, MAG 1, wildcat, lot 1 section 18-145-82;

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- April 11, 2021

Monday, April 19, 2021: 17 for the month, 17 for the quarter, 98 for the year:
35803, conf,   Enerplus, Blizzard 149-93-07A-12H-TF,  

Sunday, April 18, 2021: 16 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 97 for the year:
37716, conf,  CLR, Carson Peak 12-35H1,

Saturday, April 17, 2021: 15 for the month, 15 for the quarter, 96 for the year:
37794, conf,   CLR, Carson Peak 13-35H,
36922, conf,   MRO, Lang USA 41-8TFH,

Friday, April 16, 2021: 13 for the month, 13 for the quarter, 94 for the year:
37795, conf,  CLR, Carson Peak 14-35HSL1,
37230, conf, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HS,

Thursday, April 15, 2021: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 92 for the year:
37231, conf,  WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HX,
36248, conf,  BR, Stortroen 2D MBH,
35802, conf,  Enerplus, Sleet 149-93-07A-12H,

Wednesday, April 14, 2021: 8 for the month, 8 for the quarter, 89 for the year:
37232, conf, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HA,

Tuesday, April 13, 20211: 7 for the month, 7 for the quarter, 88 for the year:
37324, conf, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HUL,

Monday, April 12, 2021: 6 for the month, 6 for the quarter, 87 for the year:
None.

Sunday, April 11, 2021: 6 for the month, 6 for the quarter, 87 for the year:
37833, conf, Midwest AgEnergy Group, LLC, MAG 1,

Saturday, April 10, 2021: 5 for the month, 5 for the quarter, 86 for the year:
None.

French Toast: Global Warming Smacks France and Vintners -- April 11, 2021

It's always "historic" and "unprecedented" and "unexpected" when there's a cold wave somewhere -- do you remember that "historic, unprecedented, unexpected" Texas deep freeze just a couple of months ago? Now, France.

"Historic" bout of frost decimates French winemakers' harvest. Link here. One would think that they could have forecast this "historic" cold spell and prepared for it. After all, "they" can predict global temperature one hundred years from now.

By the way, one word: eiswein. My favorite dessert drink. Gator Bite is a close second. And then, I have some wonderful memories of Drambuie with a beautiful woman well before I was married. But that's another story for another day. Or never. What happens in South Pasadena stays in South Pasadena.

The "tag" will change to "GlobalWarming_2021_2022" on June 1, 2021.

French toast, a 10-minute prep breakfast:


This can be done on a Weber but it's quicker on the kitchen stove. 

*************************************
A Musical Interlude

This did more than define rock and roll. It defined California for the next forty years.

The Teenage Awards Music International Show

House band those two nights:

  • Guitars: Glen Campbell, Tommy Tedesco
  • Piano: Leon Russel
  • Drums: Hal Blaine
Tommy Tedesco:
  • Wrecking Crew
  • playing credits include the themes from:
  • Bonanza, The Twilight Zone, Green Acres, M*A*S*H,
  • Elvis Presley's '68 Comeback Special

Cornucopia -- April 11, 2021

Updates 

April 12, 2021: from Breitbart --

America is China’s top supplier of corn so far in 2021, Chinese media noted Sunday, with corn prices in China at record highs.

Corn is used in China for feeding pigs — pork is the nation’s most popular meat — making it an indispensable crop. Increased demand for corn follows not just a devastating African swine flu outbreak that sent pork prices soaring, but torrential floods that destroyed much of China’s 2020 crop yield and raised concerns of food shortages in the world’s most populous nation.

Original Post

US farmers celebrate as corn exports near records. Link here. 

Reuters reports US corn exports "have blown past nearly every benchmark" as China, the world's largest food and ag importer, appears to be ramping up purchases of US farm goods. 
What's mildly funny is how China has begun to purchase large amounts of farm goods from the US under the Biden administration. 
According to official US export data Wednesday, February's corn exports recorded 6.3 million tons. 
The amount topped "2008's record for the month by 17% and is the largest monthly volume since July 2018," said Reuters. A few months back, December's corn exports exploded to 13-year highs. The first-quarter outlook already suggests record volumes. 

Even a caveman can "read" this graph: the graph says that under the Obama administration, things were simply incredibly awful. 

By the way, this will lead to a stand-along commentary when I get caught up. 

The other day I noted:

  • Got corn? Corn futures rise to highest since 2013 before USDA report. 

Here's the link and the story:

Chicago corn futures climbed more than 3% on Thursday, April 8, 2021, to hit their highest since 2013, as the market was buoyed by smaller-than-expected US planting.

Another metric that doesn't matter (don't take that out of context).

Google search on the blog for "corn."

Back on February 13, 2013 -- note the Reuters date above -- coincidental? I think not -- Don sent me a great story. Here's the blog link with the story link "inside": 

Narrow-row corn just got narrower. Stine Seed Company planted and harvested 2,500 acres of 12-in.-row corn in central Iowa last year. A hybrid designed for high density production yielded 320 to 330 bu./acre on the cropland.
“(The fields) were up where we had a little extra rain and a little extra nitrogen on it,” reports Harry Stine, president, Stine Seed. “Most of our other yields were much lower with a farm average of 145 bu./acre (mostly 22½-in. rows).”
The trend to 20- and 15-in.-row corn has been around for years. But interest in even narrower rows such as 12 in. has increased as growers seek the elusive 300 bu./acre yield mark.

That's for the "average" farmer. 

David Hula isn't average. 

David Hula grows 600-bushel+ corn. Link here. This was just one year ago, January 6, 2020.

Meanwhile, from the USDA just a few days ago:

Increased acreage and higher yields for corn and soybeans allowed both crops to return to more typical production levels, according to the 2020 Crop Production Annual Summary released today by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).

U.S. corn growers produced 14.2 billion bushels, up 4% from 2019. Corn yield in the United States is estimated at 172.0 bushels per acre, 4.5 bushels above the 2019 yield of 167.5 bushels per acre. Area harvested for grain, at 82.5 million acres, is up 1% from 2019.

Soybean production for 2020 totaled 4.14 billion bushels, up 16% from 2019. With record high yields in Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, and Tennessee, the average soybean yield is estimated at 50.2 bushels per acre, 2.8 bushels above 2019, but 0.5 bushel below the Nov. 1 forecast.

For 2020, all cotton production is down 25% from 2019, at 15.0 million 480-pound bales. The U.S. yield is estimated at 825 pounds per acre, up 2 pounds from last year’s yield. Harvested area, at 8.70 million acres, is down 25% from last year.

Also released today were the Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings and Grain Stocks reports. The Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report provides the first indicator of this year’s winter wheat acreage. Planted area for harvest in 2021 is estimated at 32.0 million acres, up 5% from 2020.