Thursday, December 10, 2020

Off To The Races -- None Of This Makes Sense -- But I'm Not Complaining -- December 10, 2020

Updates

1:08 p.m. CT: priced at $62 or thereabouts, trades to $150. 

11:17 a.m. CT: biggest bull on Wall Street, JPMorgan's Dubravko Lakos has so many reasons why to be bullish. I'm sure his interview will be available on CNBC later. Next six to twelve months will be big. 4400 is base case for Lakos for end of 2021. Right now, S&P 500 at 3670. At 4400, that's a 20% gain. And that's the base case.

Later, 11:15 a.m. CT: I've never seen "Josh" on CNBC so incredibly bullish on the market. Usually he's a "Debbie Downer." Hates exuberance. But today on CNBC, I've never seen him so bullish. His final line: good luck for those trying to fight this market. He noted that Starbucks -- shut down by lock downs -- has hit an all-time high today: trading at $105, up 4% today.

Original Post

Fascinating, fascinating week. 

Note: there will be content and typographical errors on this page. In addition, much of this stuff is posted and undated/untimed. Things change. If this is important to you, go to the source.  

Comment: still way to early to say, but indications are that yesterday's "sell-off" was one of the shortest, fastest, "sell-off" events in .... the last three months ... AirBNB priced at $68/share, yet to have first trade. CEO must still be unloading the truck that just delivered the champagne, lobster, and caviar.

Oil:

  • WTI: up over 4%; up almost $2/bbl; trading at $47.42
  • Brent: up almost 4%; up almost $2/bbl; trading near $51
  • OPEC: down, down, down

Natural gas:

  • Henry Hub (I assume): up over 5%; trading at $2.565

Oil equities:

  • OAS: up another 3% today; as low as $36.76 last week; now at $39.50;
  • PXD: up almost 4% today; as low as $109 last week; now flirting with $120;
  • CXO: up 3% today; $61, yesterday; $64, today;
  • CVX: up over 4% today; $89, yesterday; over $94, today; pays almost 6%;
  • COP: up over 3% today; under $42 yesterday; now at $44 today;
  • XOM: don't even want to look;


  • ENB: up almost 2%; as low as $32.83 yesterday; today over $34; 
  • EPD: up almost 3%; as low as $20.50 yesterday; today over $21.25;
  • KMI: a laggard; up only 1%; pays over 7%;

Covid-19:

  • JNJ: down today; $152;
  • PFE: up slightly today; $42
  • MRK: flat at $83.50

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Costa Azul Moves To The Top At Sidebar At The Right -- December 10, 2020

How big a story is Costa Azul? The story is now followed here and it is linked at the top of the sidebar at the right (note: the sidebar is dynamic). 

When I first saw this story, I suggested it might be the biggest energy story of the year. It certainly must be the biggest LNG export story of the year.

RBN Energy must think so, too. It devoted a blog to Costa Azul today.

RBN Energy: Proximity drives Costa Azul LNG export project forward. Archived.

Closing midstream deals has been a bit of a challenge in 2020, to say the least. In fact, this has been a year when many projects have been sidelined or cancelled outright, with most decisions on even the best prospects getting pushed to next year. But it hasn’t been all bad news. In a few cases, assets with advantages have made it across the finish line, even in the land of liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects. Despite this summer’s collapse in U.S. LNG exports, driven by a compression of the spreads in global gas prices, Sempra Energy recently announced that it is going ahead with Phase 1 at its Costa Azul liquefaction project in Mexico’s Baja California. How did they pull this off in such a tumultuous year? Well, Costa Azul isn’t your everyday LNG export project. Today, we detail the most recent U.S. LNG export project to receive a final investment decision (FID) to proceed.

Breaching Market Rules? LOL -- December 10, 2020

Bloomberg link here. Archived.

"Did they breach market rules -- or simply pull off one of the greatest trades ever?" 

Oh, give me a break. "Did they breach market rules?" All's fair in love and war. And for heaven's sake, this is the oil market -- I am surprised to learn that there are "market rules." LOL. 

********************************
For Sophia

Spanish.

Ser vs estar.

Link here. 

DOCTOR vs PLACE. 

Ser vs estar. 

The difference between nosotros and nosotras is gender. Nosotros is used to refer to a group of men only or a group made up of men and women. Even if there are ninety-nine women and only one man in a group, you still use nosotros. Nosotras is feminine and is only used when the entire group is female.

Hess Reports A Nice Sorenson Well Today -- December 10, 2020

Active rigs:

$45.87
12/10/202012/10/201912/10/201812/10/201712/10/2016
Active Rigs1554645340

One well is coming off the confidential list today -- Thursday, December 10, 2020: 12 for the month; 68 for the quarter, 733 for the year

  • 36534, drl/A, Hess, EN-Sorenson B-155-94-3526H-10, Alkali Creek, t--; cum 101K 10/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20202415298153132058627422273260
BAKKEN9-20203017880178812480929045289560
BAKKEN8-20202920327203462149228670285780
BAKKEN7-20203124980249512483037324372230
BAKKEN6-20202122802226661613827281272190


RBN Energy: Proximity drives Costa Azul LNG export project forward.

Closing midstream deals has been a bit of a challenge in 2020, to say the least. In fact, this has been a year when many projects have been sidelined or cancelled outright, with most decisions on even the best prospects getting pushed to next year. But it hasn’t been all bad news. In a few cases, assets with advantages have made it across the finish line, even in the land of liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects. Despite this summer’s collapse in U.S. LNG exports, driven by a compression of the spreads in global gas prices, Sempra Energy recently announced that it is going ahead with Phase 1 at its Costa Azul liquefaction project in Mexico’s Baja California. How did they pull this off in such a tumultuous year? Well, Costa Azul isn’t your everyday LNG export project. Today, we detail the most recent U.S. LNG export project to receive a final investment decision (FID) to proceed.

This Should Have Been On The Literature Blog But I Decided To Post It Here To Get My Mind Off Today's (Yesterday's) Market -- December 10, 2020

Wow, this is amazing. Over the years I have subscribed to The New York Review of Books. I don't know when I first subscribed. Maybe ten years ago. I often let the subscription lapse: it becomes way too political and non-interesting, and it becomes way too expensive. Then after not renewing for six months or so they start sending me offers to renew for $10 instead of the $100 rate or whatever it is.

The interesting thing: whether I subscribe or not, I have never lost my userid or password to TNYROB. I tried it tonight just for the fun of it and it worked. I last tried it on June 4, 2016. [Yes, I keep track of such things.] I generally also keep track of when I first establish an online account but in this case I did not.

Whatever.

The "holiday issue," unfortunately, is a dud. It feels about the same thickness and it appears to have the same number of essays as any other issue, but the content is sorely lacking. There was one bright spot; an essay/review of a series of paperback books on "animals" of all things.

From the essay:

For the past seventeen years, Reaktion Books has been publishing a series of volumes under the general rubric “Animal”—attractive duodecimos in uniform paperback editions, printed in color on heavy stock.
There are ninety-eight of them so far, from Albatross to Zebra, by way of Bedbug, Leech, and Swan. [To browse these ninety-eight books, click here.]
I first came across the series in 2010, when an advanced reader’s copy of Camel showed up in my mailbox, a book whose outlook—arid and elliptically comic—seems at one with its subject. It’s hard not to like a profusely illustrated book that recommends Rose Macaulay’s The Towers of Trebizond, quotes the work of Al-Jahiz (“the Arab world’s greatest ever essayist”), and describes the sound that camel ticks make when tossed into the campfire. 
I’ve now read thirty-five of the Animal books. 
Not all of them live up to the standard of Camel, which was written by Robert Irwin. 
But the series shows no sign of flagging, and one of the best is also the most recent: Human by Amanda Rees and Charlotte Sleigh.  
Each volume in the series runs to about two hundred pages and includes nearly all the things that invite the phrase “a real book”: index, footnotes, acknowledgments, dedication, and a bibliography whose quality depends on the author (Sardine, superb; Turtle, tragic). 
And they remind the reader how complex the eye’s interaction with the page is, how much work we do, without noticing, while reading illustrated books. For instance, the Batman postage stamps reproduced in Bat are nearly actual size. But the original Audubon engraving of a pelican is vastly bigger than its half-page reproduction in Pelican. 
The Animal books are filled with images—“96 illustrations, 52 in colour” says the back cover of Human—and as the pages turn it would be wonderful to see the images magically expand and contract to their real, worldly dimensions. But they don’t (not even in the e-book versions). And so the eye darts in and out, back and forth from picture to text (where the eye is more or less natively at home), nearly always with a little ocular wistfulness, a wish that it could see more fully, more intricately, more majestically. Most of the illustrations illustrate. But many are so small that they merely provoke the desire to see.

The illustrations are absolutely superb, so superb that I might order one or two of the books in the series on birds just to see how good these books really are. At $19.95/copy one can hardly go wrong, and with all the "cash back" I have at Amazon, I will get these books "for free." I seldom pay for books at Amazon any more. 

It's amazing. I pay for my airline ticket with a credit card -- I have no other choice -- and I get "cash back" in my Amazon account. What a great country. 

Anyway, I wrote all that to simply say that my new favorite word is duodecimos. I had known that word from before but I had forgotten. 

I think I first learned about it when studying the meaning of folio or quarto when I was in m Shakespeare phase some years ago. Link here to "book size." 

It all begins with the folio, a sheet of paper 12 inches by 19 inches. 

Going down that rabbit hole, one comes across another word I used to know (and love): incunabula.

An incunable, or sometimes incunabulum (plural incunables or incunabula, respectively), is a book, pamphlet, or broadside printed in Europe before 1501.

The year 1501 is completely arbitrary, established by a Dutch physician and humanist back in 1569. A former term for incunable is "fifteener," in the meaning of "fifteenth-century edition."

Back to Reaktion Books and the Animal series, I will order the "raptor" books: eagle, falcon, and owl. Alas, there is no book on hawk (yet). I will also get the book Vulture, even though vultures are technically not raptors. Interestingly enough, they are more closely aligned with the storks. My hunch is when the storks host their family reunions, they dread seeing their cousins the vultures show up.