Weekly EIA Report -- Pretty Much Unchanged; No Surprises -- September 30, 2020

Weekly EIA report, link here:

• US crude oil stored in the US: 492.4 million bbls
• US crude oil change since previous report: decreased by 2.0 million bbls
• US refineries operating at 75.8% -- essentially no change
• distillate fuel production decreased a bit last week
• US crude oil imports showed almost no change week-over-week
• average about 22% less than same four-week period last year
• jet fuel supplied still down almost 50% compared with same period last year

Re-balancing:

Week	Date of Report=	Change	Million Bbls Storage
Week 0	November 21, 2018	4.9	446.9
Week 1	November 28, 2018	3.6	450.5
Week 2	December 6, 2018	-7.3	443.2
Week 3	December 12, 2018	-1.2	442.0
Week 4	December 19, 2018	-0.5	441.5
Week 5	December 28, 2018	0.0	441.4
Week 84	July 15, 2020	-7.5	531.7
Week 85	July 22, 2020	4.9	536.6
Week 86	July 29, 2020	-10.6	526.0
Week 87	August 5, 2020	-7.4	518.6
Week 88	August 12, 2020	-4.5	514.1
Week 89	August 19, 2020	-1.6	512.5
Week 90	August 26, 2020	-4.7	507.8
Week 91	September 2, 2020	-9.4	498.4
Week 92	September 10, 2020	2.0	500.5
Week 93	September 16, 2020	-4.4	496.0
Week 94	September 23, 2020	-1.6	494.4
Week 95	September 30, 2020	-2.0	492.4

Crude oil imports:

Crude Oil Imports
Week (week-over-week)	Date of Report	Raw Data, millions of bbls	Change (millions of bbls)	Four-week period comparison
Week 0	March 11, 2029	6.4	0.174
Week 1	March 18, 2020	6.5	0.127
Week 2	March 25, 2020	6.1	-0.422
Week 3	April 1, 2020	6.0	-0.070
Week 4	April 8, 2020	5.9	-0.173
Week 5	April 15, 2020	5.7	-0.194
Week 6	April 22, 2020	5.6	-0.700
Week 7	April 29, 2020	5.3	0.365	-19.700%
Week 8	May 6, 2020	5.7	0.410
Week 9	May 13, 2020	5.4	-0.321	-26.100%
Week 10	May 20, 2020	5.2	-0.194
Week 11	May 28, 2020	7.2	2.000	-16.400%
Week 12	June 3, 2020	6.2	-1.000	-18.300%
Week 13	June 10, 2020	6.4	0.000	-13.300%
Week 14	June 17, 2020	6.6	-0.222	-10.000%
Week 15	June 24, 2020	6.5	-0.102	-11.600%
Week 16	July 1, 2020	6.5	-0.600	-11.300%
Week 17	July 8, 2020	7.4	1.400	-8.500%
Week 18	July 15, 2020	7.5	-1.800	-10.200%
Week 19	July 22, 2020	5.9	0.373	-13.500%
Week 20	July 29, 2020	5.1	-0.800	-13.600%
Week 21	August 5, 2020	6.0	0.900	-18.100%
Week 22	August 12, 2020	5.6	-0.389	-20.400%
Week 23	August 19, 2020	5.7	0.109	-21.700%
Week 24	August 26, 2020	5.9	0.185	-16.900%
Week 25	September 2, 2020	4.9	-1.000	-20.200%
Week 26	September 10, 2020	5.4	0.500	-17.900%
Week 27	September 16, 2020	5.0	-0.416	-20.100%
Week 28	September 23, 2020	5.2	0.160	-24.200%
Week 29	September 30, 2020	5.1	0.045	-21.600%

Distillate production:

Distillate Fuel Inventories
Week	Date of Report	Change in Millions	Relative to 5-Yr Avg
Week 1	August 26, 2020	1.40	24.0%
Week 2	September 2, 2020	-1.70	23.0%
Week 3	September 10, 2020	-1.70	20.0%
Week 4	September 16, 2020	3.50	22.0%
Week 5	September 23, 2020	-3.40	21.0%
Week 6	September 30, 2020	-3.20	21.0%

Jet fuel supplied:

Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week
Week	Date of Report	Change
Week 0	3/7/2020	-12.80%
Week 1	3/14/2020	-12.60%
Week 2	3/21/2020	-8.90%
Week 3	3/28/2020	-16.40%
Week 4	4/4/2020	-0.22%
Week 18	July 15, 2020	-51.90%
Week 19	July 22, 2020	-47.70%
Week 20	July 29, 2020	-42.10%
Week 21	August 5, 2020	-40.90%
Week 22	August 12, 2020	-45.80%
Week 23	August 19, 2020	-47.60%
Week 24	August 26, 2020	-45.70%
Week 25	September 2, 2020	-47.10%
Week 26	September 10, 2020	-45.10%
Week 27	September 16, 2020	-45.60%
Week 28	September 23, 2020	-45.80%
Week 29	September 30, 2020	-46.10%

Oasis Files -- Notes From All Over -- Part 1 -- September 30, 2020

Oasis: files for pre-packaged Chapter 11 to reduce debt by almost $2 billion. Link here. It looks like the company got its Permian assets for free and then some. Only investors and banks left holding the bag? It seems that way but I don't know how these things work. There's something to be said for capitalism. Anyone held responsible? LOL If only. From an earlier post;

Oasis Petroleum Inc. today announced it has entered into a definitive purchase and sale agreement with Forge Energy, LLC   to acquire 20,300 net acres in the Delaware Basin for approximately $946 million, consisting of approximately $483 million in cash and 46 million shares of the Company's common stock valued at approximately $463 million as of the close of trading on December 8, 2017.

Wow. This month flew by.

Re-posting:  

Consumer confidence: SURGES! Link here. Look at these "official" numbers -- amazing -- the turnaround --

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index^® increased in September, after declining in August. 

The Index now stands at 101.8 (1985=100), up from 86.3 in August. 

The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – increased from 85.8 to 98.5. The Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions – increased from 86.6 in August to 104.0 this month.

Yahoo!Mail: very, very interesting. All of a sudden I'm getting almost no spam e-mail. Historically, every day, I would get about fifteen e-mails in my spam folder. Almost always the same ones. About a week ago I noticed I'm not getting "any more" spam. None of those are showing up any more. Yesterday, none. Today, one or two, when I should have at least fifteen.  

Omaha Steaks: fall sale.  Spend $99 (which is really, really easy) and shipping is "free." Still too expensive, but I did order some for someone else -- just meeting the threshold. I don't order Omaha Steaks for myself any more -- at least not in a long, long time -- but still order for other family members. Makes a great unexpected gift.

Streaming television / movies: I'm blown away by Pop and Pluto television. The ads are a bit irritating but no worse than commercial television. Also Peacock but I've not looked at that; no plans to sign up but with the Johnny Carson library may have to re-think.

Crisis? What Crisis? No Need For Congressional Bailout? Companies Adding Way More Jobs Than Expected -- September 30, 2020

CNBC: link here.

• almost a million new jobs added; exceeds forecast
• actual numbers: 749,000 jobs added vs forecast of 600,000
• construction, trade transportation, utilities, and hospitality led the gains
• one wonders what Steve Liesman had to say? LOL -- Mr Gloom and Doom

Yahoo!Finance: link here.

• poetic
• "rosy fingers of dawn" -- Homer
• "closely watched private jobs report" -- US mainstream media
• the numbers
• forecast: 649,000
• actual: 749,000
• considering the state of the economy, the forecast was actually pretty good
• this would be a headline story only if the actual numbers missed on the downside
• August's increase was ... drum roll ... upwardly revised ... drum roll ... to 481,000, from 428,000 previously reported
  

Consumer confidence: SURGES! Link here. Look at these "official" numbers -- amazing -- the turnaround --

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index^® increased in September, after declining in August. 

The Index now stands at 101.8 (1985=100), up from 86.3 in August. 

The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – increased from 85.8 to 98.5. The Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions – increased from 86.6 in August to 104.0 this month.

GM auto news: introduces all-electric Buick Electra -- wow, what a great name -- the model/make was manufactured from 1959 to 1990 over six generations according to wiki. Apparently GM is bringing it back ... to China. From the linked greencarreports, this effusive lead:

The Buick brand established a strong foothold for GM in China’s auto market long before the rapidly developing nation became the world’s electric vehicle leader. And Monday, the automaker showed China a grander piece of Buick’s future, incorporating GM’s latest electric propulsion systems and Ultium battery system.

That future comes in the form of a familiar flagship name—Electra—that’s been a no-brainer for EVs all along. With a new “potential energy” design language, the Electra is a low-set, sporty four-seat crossover, with butterfly doors and a theme of far-out futurism “inspired by a space capsule.” 

“The advanced Ultium battery unlocks the exciting new possibilities for what future EVs will look like,” said Molly Peck, the executive director of sales and marketing for Buick at SAIC-GM, the Chinese joint-venture company that has permitted GM’s expansion.

The doors open with facial recognition, and once in, the driver faces an augmented-reality head-up display and live-view navigation as part of the multi-screen interface. The steering wheel is retractable, and the seats are suspended on an armature structure.

There’s even a skateboard integrated within the stoplight, under the rear bumper “to expand users’ personal mobility options.

Disney: might theme parks in California remain closed for a year? The tea leaves suggest just that. 

Disney laying off 28,000 workers; mostly part-time workers. Disney has obviously done the math on what it would cost them to lay-off full-time employees and train/hire new recruits once parks re-open.

Disney, in round numbers, ballpark figures:

• market cap: $225 billion
• enterprise value: $265 billion
• trailing P/E: 50
• forward P/E: 50
• return on assets: 2%
• return on equity: -1%
• diluted EPS: - 60 cents/share
• total cash: $25 billion
• total debt: $70 billion
• no dividend paid in July, 2020 (link here)?  unlikely to pay in December, 2020; 
• dividend history:
• 2012: December, 75 cents
• 2013: December, 86 cents
• 2014: December, $1.15
• 2015: July and December; 66 cents and 71 cents, respectively
• 2016: July and December, 71 cents and 78 cents, respectively
• 2017: July and December, 78 cents and 84 cents, respectively
• 2018: July and December, 84 cents and 88 cents, respectively
• 2019: July and December, 88 cents and 88 cents, respectively
• 2020: July -- no dividend

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

WTI Remains Below $40; Saudi's Official Selling Price Continues To Drop; Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- September 30, 2020

First things first, sports: I didn't see the final but when I last looked it was New York Yankees, 11 and the Cleveland Native Americans, 2.  First of three games in this wild-card series.

First things first, comfort food: I only had one item to pick up at the neighborhood grocery store last night -- ice cream. I always try to keep a half-gallon of Blue Bell natural vanilla ice cream in the freezer. It's Sophia's favorite and her favorite treat is ice cream with her homemade brownies.

The grocery freezer was almost completely sold out of all Blue Bell ice cream. Where there might be 30 to 40 "tubs" there were only a handful literally. What was going on? Then I saw. Blue Bell was on sale. Normal price: $7.99. Through yesterday, Tuesday, September 29: $3.99. I bought two tubs. First time in my life I bought more than one tub of ice cream at one time.

Ohio: apparently something happened last night. Scrolling through twitter, apparently not suitable for children. C'mon man, we should be able to do better than that.

Coronavirus:

• tracking like Spanish flu, 1918 - 1920; see this link;
• only four new deaths in New York! no wonder the mayor is so concerned about relaxing lock down measures; eight new deaths in NY and the headlines will blare: NY death rate doubles;
  
• compare with five new deaths in South Dakota, North Dakota (each, not combined)
• Chicago: visitors from 22 states must quarantine; includes both Dakotas; most of the south;
• will not quarantine visitors from New York, New Jersey, Florida, or California
• will add four states on October 2, 2020: Nevada, Wyoming, Texas, and Tennessee
  

Investing: the only historical precedent we have is the Spanish Flu. Why I have never been so excited by a market. Graphic pending. Link here.

Nikola: sounds like GM wants to review the video of that truck rolling downhill.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Naive: Robert Rapier. Link here.  As soon as his argument included, "hey, we've been fracking since the 1940s" -- that's when I knew this was a worthless op-ed.

Oil draw: another "surprise" draw. But gasoline inventories grew. Not surprising if one has been following the weekly gasoline demand numbers.

OPEC basket, link here: continues the downward slide, now at $41.46. This is unsustainable for Saudi Arabia. Absolutely unsustainable.

***************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$39.14	9/30/2020	09/30/2019	09/30/2018	09/30/2017	09/30/2016
Active Rigs	11	58	67	58	33

Two wells coming off the confidential list:

Wednesday, September 30, 2020: 148 for the month; 219 for the quarter, 665 for the year

• 34660, drl/A,  Whiting, Wold Federal 44-1-1H, Sand Creek, t--; cum 80K over three months;
• 34659, SI/IA, Whiting, Wold Federal l44-1TFHU, Sand Creek, 16K over 14 days extrapolates to nearly 35K over 30 days;

RBN Energy: E&Ps plot lean second-half investment after second-qarter CAPEX retreat. 

Battered by seismic economic shocks from sudden demand destruction and plummeting prices in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, exploration and production companies (E&Ps) abandoned their carefully crafted 2020 strategic plans and financial guidance and shifted into emergency survival mode to protect their financial stability. 

First-quarter earnings calls sounded more like FEMA disaster briefings than standard financial reporting as the companies announced aggressive capital and operational cost-cutting measures. But few E&Ps detailed the timing and duration of the investment reductions and the degree to which they would impact oil and gas production for the remainder of the year. Now, with second-quarter calls behind us and the third quarter about to end, there’s a lot more clarity on the capital spending and production fronts. Today, we discuss the evolution of E&Ps’ 2020 spending plans and how the changes will affect production for the balance of the year.

CAPEX retreat: remember all those op-eds four years ago about the dire consequences of the demise of off-shore drilling? Wow, talk about a mis-read. Haven't seen any of those op-eds about the planned cutback in shale oil CAPEX.

Today's Update On GM - Nikola -- September 28, 2020