Wednesday, September 11, 2019

US Expansion: Longest In History -- 18 Years SInce "911" -- US Stronger Than Ever -- September 11, 2019

Link here, although just one of many.


Slow, steady, and one for the record books:
  • The US economic expansion and recovery from the Great Recession officially made history on Monday July 1: The 10-year, 121-month expansion that started in June 2009 is now the longest ever. 
  • The previous record was set during the 120-month expansion from March 1991 to March 2001, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. 
  • It ended as the dotcom bubble burst. 
  • While the current expansion is a record breaker, it's also been one of the slowest. 
  • Gross Domestic Product has grown 25% cumulatively since the start of the expansion, which is lower than other booms on record. 
  • The unemployment rate sits at 3.6%, its lowest point since 1969. It is down from a peak of 10% in October 2009, but job growth took much longer during this recovery than during other recoveries postwar.
This time it's different: slow and steady; not a bubble waiting to burst. Looks like The Economist gives us another example of "sour grapes":



Jobs:
  • record employment
  • lowest unemployment
  • majority of new highers, first time ever: minorities -- Washington Post

Update On TransMountain Pipeline -- September 11, 2019

Many, many stories. One link. Buzz:


Bottom line: PM Trudeau threading the needle. Indigenous peoples will get their day in court; arguments narrowed; most expect final decision to be positive for the pipeline; pipeline remains under construction. At least that's my take.

The "number one" argument to stop the pipeline appears dead. The number one argument: the pipeline will add to many more oil tankers to the port, near whale lanes. Right now there are 23,000 ships moving through that port every year. The pipeline is estimated to add another 700 ships. My hunch: free market capitalism and government mandating no increase in amount of ship traffic would solve the problem overnight.

McKinsey: Natural Gas Update -- Through 2035 -- September 11, 2019

US natural gas: making America great. Link to report on McKinsey Energy Insights. Globally, new natural gas production forecast to be 635 billion cubic meters by 2035; half of that to be produced by US.

Data points:
  • among fossil fuels, only natural gas will likely continuously grow in demand through 2035
  • 2018: the turning point in terms of gas and LNG market dynamics
    • China became the world's biggest LNG importer
    • highest volume of liquefaction projects taking final investment decision (FID)
    • that set the tone through 2035 -- long term projects
  • Asian economies in the ascendancy, led by China; growing energy demand
  • US continues to rank highly for both supply and demand
  • supply side -- Europe and Asia's second-tier economies falling away
  • 2018: China took overtook Japan as the world's biggest importer of gas
    • China surpassed South Korea to become the second-biggest LNG importer
    • through 2035, Asia (all of Asia) will account for 95% of glboal LNG demand growth until at least 2035
  • demand
    • global demand: will grow at about 1% annually
    • Asian demand: will grow twice as fast, more than 2% annually
  • production
    • global production: new production to grow by at least 635 billion cubic meters
    • US to supply more than half of that; 380 bcm
    • Russia: 110 bcm of new production
    • Africa: 110 bcm of new production
  • Pipeline, note US-Mexico:
... new pipeline construction will add more than 200 bcm of cross-border gas capacity by 2025, with the U.S. and Russia retaining their major piped gas exporter positions. The firm also noted that three U.S.-Mexico projects totaling 60 bcm in capacity – the largest set of pipelines set to be completed anywhere in the world by 2025 – should conclude by the end of this year. Nord Stream 2, which will ship Russian gas to Germany (and the European Union) via the Baltic Sea, represents the second-largest set of pipeline projects and will reach a total of 55 bcm by next year
Finally, LNG and FID:
... “a record volume” of LNG projects – more than 60 million tonnes per annum (mtpa), or 20 percent of today’s market – took FID in the last 12 months and will push the LNG supply-demand balance into the late-2020s.
“Looking ahead, only one in 10 proposed LNG projects will take FID, with over 100 LNG projects totaling 1,100 mtpa of capacity competing to fill the 125 mtpa supply gap by 2023,”

Two Wells Come Off The Confidential List Today -- September 11, 2019

GE: about ready to say goodby to Baker Hughes. The bottom line:
the actions will reduce GE’s stake in the entity formed by the 2017 merger of its oil and gas unit with Baker Hughes to less than 50%. That will force GE to give up most of its board seats at Baker Hughes. More importantly, the company will now have to deconsolidate Baker Hughes’s results from its own earnings and recognize the difference between what it paid for the deal and what the asset is currently worth.
Fasken Ranch, Texas: 250 square miles; in the Permian; could fetch $7 billion; not for sale. Story here.
Back in 1913, when Toronto attorney David Fasken paid $1.50 an acre for plains outside Midland, the plan, according to lore, was to make a fortune raising cattle.
There was too little water for that to happen. Fasken died 16 years later, unaware of the riches below the surface.
Now his heirs are among the 100 families that are the biggest private landowners in the U.S.—No. 40 on the list in terms of acreage, and nearer the top in value.
Their holdings include three ranches in South Texas and commercial, industrial and residential real estate scattered around the Lone Star State and California. There’s also a vineyard in Napa Valley.
US natural gas: making America great. Link to report on McKinsey Energy Insights. Globally, new natural gas production forecast to be 635 billion cubic meters by 2035; half of that to be produced by US. Stand-alone post here. 

Oyster Creek, TX, ethylene glycol facility; ribbon-cutting; Kuwaiti; 750,000 metric tons annually; shale revolution.

PEMEX: lined up $5 billion in re-financing; teetering on edge of junk credit rating. Until re-financing had $15 billion of debt coming due over next 12 months. Data points:
  • has failed to stem a more than decade-long decline in oil output
  • finances have become increasingly precarious
  • folks skeptical that socialist AMLO can turn things aruodn
  • oil production has fallen every years for the past 14 years
  • oil production less than half of what it once was
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Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off confidential list today -- Wednesday, September 11, 2019: 33 for the month; 165 for the quarter:
  • 35980, 1,449, Newfield, Sturgeon 150-99-18-19-10H, South Tobacco Garden, t7/19; cum 8K over 7 days;
  • 35518, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Person-156-94-1102H-5, Big Butte, no production data,
Active rigs:

9/11/201909/11/201809/11/201709/11/201609/11/2015
Active Rigs6466563769

RBN Energy: the halting progress of US LNG export capacity additions.
2019 was supposed to be a milestone year for U.S. LNG exports. And to a degree, it has been. Natural gas pipeline deliveries to liquefaction and export terminals have peaked above 6.5 Bcf/d in the past couple of weeks and averaged about 6 Bcf/d for that period, up nearly 2 Bcf/d from where they started this year and more than twice where they stood at this time a year ago. But the growth has come haltingly as under-construction projects have faced a number of setbacks and delays. Moreover, the longer-term, “second-wave” export projects still in the early stages of development and looking to pass “go” are facing challenges of their own, including global oversupply and collapsed margins. Today, we begin a short series providing an update on where U.S. LNG export demand and new projects stand.

RimRock Targeting The First Bench Three Forks -- Heart Butte Oil Field -- September 11, 2019

From the file report for this well:
  • 35953, SI/NC, RimRock, Two Shields Butte 5-7-8-8H3, Heart Butte, no producing data, 
RimRock Oil & Gas Williston, LLC Two Shields Butte 5-7-8-8H3 is located approximately 5 miles east of Mandaree in Dunn County, North Dakota.
The subject well was designed to drill east at a heading of 89.98°, from SW NW [1,571' FNL; 147’ FWL] Section 7, T149N, R92W by the Precision 578 drilling rig.
Two Shields Butte 5-7-8-8H3 is the first of four vertical/curves to be drilled on its pad, and the last of four east-drilling lateral wells in the Two Shields Butte DSU. The Two Shields Butte 5-7-8-8H3 is intended to develop oil production from the Devonian Three Forks Formation 1st Bench in Heart Butte Field.