Sunday, April 21, 2019

April 21, 2019 -- Grocers

Link to WSJ article. This is a long, long article -- Kroger, Target, Walmart. E-commerce. Lots of issues. More to follow.
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Shorts: Natural Gas, Crude Oil, WTL, And All That Jazz -- April 21, 2019

Natural gas: we've discussed this for quite some time. Now oilprice suggests the same thing. The nation's natural gas inventories will be quickly replenished.

The right kind of oil: we've also been talking about this for several years. Now oilprice is talking about it. Also, note, WTL. This could spell and incredible challenge for Bakken oil. By the way, at the linked article, the linked oilprice article does not mention the reason we are in this predicament: Obama killed the Keystone XL.

Argus announces two new benchmarks; and, here; 

So much to blog about; so many links and cross-references to make. I will come back and "fill this out," but want to this posted. So much more to post today.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

For those wanting to invest in oil, the second linked article provides a huge hint. 
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The MRO Chauncey-Winona Pad -- April 21, 2019

Locator: 13001WINONA.

Record IPs in the Bakken are tracked here, FAQ #9. 

The wells:

  • 37089, 5,502, MRO, Jonah USA ... 2H, first production, 1/21; t--; cum 105K 2/21; 53K over 17 days extrapolates to 93,500 bbls over 30 days; see this post; cum 203K 4/21; t1/21; cum 395K 4/23; cum 424K 3/24; cum 455K 6/26; has been offline four five months, now returning to production 6/26;
  • 36221, drl/NC-->6,420, MRO, Daniel USA 11-2TFH-2B, 33-053-08982, Antelope, first production, 1/21; t--; cum 122K 2/21; initial production, 84K over 25 days extrapolates to 100,800 bbls crude oil over 30 days; fracked 11/22/20 - 12/2/20; 8 million gallons of water; 52% fresh water by mass; 30% produced water by mass; see this post; cum 276K 7/21; came off line 7/21; t1/21; cum 434K 4/23; 462K 3/24; cum 180K 6/26; one line for one year;
  • 36222, 7,083, MRO, Morsette USA 11-2H, Antelope-Sanish, t1/21; cum 188K 4/21; t1/21; cum 368K 4/23; cum 385K 3/24; cum 409K 6/26; has been offline four five months, now returning to production 6/26;
  • 36223, 7,146, MRO, Sherman USA 21-2TFH, first production, 1/21; t12/20; cum 130K 2/21; cum 229K 4/21; cum 436K 4/23; cum 466K 3/24; cum 510K 6/26; was offline a couple of months in early 2026; now back online;
  • 36224, 3,951, MRO, Valarie USA 21-2H, Antelope-Sanish, t12/20; cum 194K 4/21; 228K 7/21; came off line 7/21; cum 342K 4/23; cum 376K 3/24; cum 419K 6/26;
  • ***33412, 6,509, MRO, Winona USA 21-2TFH-2B, t4/18; cum 596K 2/21; Three Forks B2; 45 stages; 10 million lbs, 73,742 bbls + 100,353 mcf (16,722 boe) = 90,465 bod in less than four months; off line 3/20; back on line 8/20; nice return to production; off line 1/21 back on line 2/21; cum 711K 4/23; cum 744K 3/24; cum 784K 6/26;
  • 33413, 8,475, MRO, Chauncey USA 31-2H, Antelope-Sanish, t3/18; cum 479K 2/21; back on line 8/20; production okay; off line 11/20; remains off line 1/21; back on line 2/21; off line 7/21; cum 486K 7/21; t3/18; cum 531K 4/23; cum 549K 3/24; cum 577K 6/26;
  • 33414, 5,524, MRO, Wilbur USA 31-2TFH, Antelope-Sanish, t4/18; cum 429K 2/21; did not come off line; but then off line 11/20; remains off line 1/21; back on line 2/21; t4/18; cum 489K 4/23; cum 528K 3/24; cum 579L 6/26;
  • 33415, 7,572, MRO, June USA 31-2H, Antelope-Sanish, t3/18; cum 565K 2/21; did not come off line; but then came off line 11/20; remains off line 1/21; back on line 2/21; t3/18; cum 650K 4/23; cum 697K 3/24; cum 756K 6/26;
  • 33416, 4,892, MRO, Miles USA 41-2TFH-2B, Antelope-Sanish, t4/18; cum 365K 2/21; did not come off line; but then came off line 11/20; remains off line 1/21; back on line 2/21; t4/18; cum 416K 4/23; cum 429K 3/24; cum 415K 6/26;
Updates
 
August 17, 2026: production update for all the wells above. 

June 24, 2023: production update for all the wells above.
 
July 1, 2021: the graphic --


April 3, 2021: updates; huge wells.
 
Original Post

While waiting we can take another look at this staggering MRO well:
  • 33412, 6,509, MRO, Winona USA 21-2TFH-2B, t4/18; cum 522K 12/19; Three Forks B2; 45 stages; 10 million lbs, 73,742 bbls + 100,353 mcf (16,722 boe) = 90,465 bod in less than four months; 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH2-20192815277153386884275241472910738
SANISH1-20193122348223428488404772645111137
SANISH12-2018292435724159810634275275993824
SANISH11-201895692586926671162280372768
SANISH10-201831237902378216121467643289710770
SANISH9-201830289072898213617556302889523478
SANISH8-201831345453460816623555682105832353
SANISH7-201831429924307320637587821730438864
SANISH6-201830638546399225526867561391768246
SANISH5-201829572925744931612691113890826595
SANISH4-201823737427309947011003533064561613
SANISH3-201823042950128615892

It's unlikely there will be enough second bench wells to evaluate for the next USGS Bakken survey (unless that's the reason for the delay).

That well is on a 10-well pad in Antelope oil field. Interestingly five are completed and producing, but four are still permitted only:
  • 37089, drl, MRO, Jonah USA ...
  • 36221, drl, MRO, Daniel USA ...
  • 36222, drl, MRO, Morsette USA ...
  • 36223, ros -- January 18, 2020, MRO, Sherman USA ...
  • 36224, drl, MRO, Valarie USA ...
  • 33412, see above,
  • 33413, 8,475, MRO, Chauncey USA 31-2H, Antelope-Sanish, t3/18; cum 446K 12/19;
  • 33414, 5,524, MRO, Wilbur USA 31-2TFH, Antelope-Sanish, t4/18; cum 376K 12/19;
  • 33415, 7,572, MRO, June USA 31-2H, Antelope-Sanish, t3/18; cum 505K 12/19;
  • 33416, 4,892, MRO, Miles USA 41-2TFH-2B, Antelope-Sanish, t4/18; cum 329K 12/19;
Two neighboring, older wells to the east:
  • 18471, 380, MRO, Hunts Along USA 12-1H, Antelope-Sanish, t1/11; cum 233K 12/19; huge jump in production:
SANISH7-2018311685316732910822265915712106
SANISH6-201811522022021013558
SANISH5-2018957295831250355635774336
SANISH4-2018101162711845114918321015788
SANISH3-20186371933470300002180
SANISH2-20180000000
SANISH1-20180000000
SANISH12-20170000000
SANISH11-20170000000
SANISH10-20170000000
SANISH9-20170000000
SANISH8-20170000000
SANISH7-20170000000
SANISH6-20170000000
SANISH5-20178178357382830236
SANISH4-201730986136980138101092
SANISH3-2017311042947115144801147
SANISH2-2017289621201105133601065
SANISH1-20173111121261110154001235
  • 17008, TA/298, MRO, Myrmidon 1-2H, Antelope-Sanish, t8/08; cum 56K 5/17;
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From Each According To His Ability, To Each According To His Needs -- Looks Like Bernie, Beto, Biden Have Lots Of Needs --- April 21, 2019.

From an undisclosed site:
Their tax returns revealed that each of the Democratic candidates gave an embarrassingly low percentage of their sizable income to charity in recent years. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren won the title as most charitable, giving a whopping 5.5 percent of her household’s $906,000 income to charity in 2017. 
In second place is Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, who, along with his wife, gave 4 percent of their income in 2017. 
New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and her husband contributed 2 percent of their $215,000. 
Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar contributed 1.9 percent out of $338,500, while California Sen. Kamala Harris contributed just 1.4 percent out of $1.9 million.
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders just became a millionaire in 2016, raking in $1,073,333. Yet he gave only $10,600 to charity — less than 1 percent of his income. He upped his generosity in 2017 and 2018, donating an "impressive" 3 percent. [Once one announces a presidential run, this percentage always increases.]

Finally, Beto O’Rourke and his wife gave 0.3 percent of their $366,455 to charity in 2017. Good news: that’s up from 0.2 percent in 2016.
Don’t worry, though, O’Rourke’s campaign team has announced they are busy looking for the “thousands of dollars” of charitable giving that weren’t, for some reason, reflected on his tax returns. The American people anxiously await their excavation.
Beto, Beto, Beto. What gives?

However, I've always said that true charity is not reflected on IRS filings.
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Inactive Wells + DUCs In The Bakken -- April 21, 2019

Coincidentally I spoke with a former "oil man" yesterday. He follows natural gas, not crude oil.

He was completely unaware of this data point, from the February, 2019, North Dakota/Bakken director's cut:
Off line:
  • DUCs: 894, up 27 from last report (tracked here)
  • inactive: 1,667, up 150 from last report
  • total: 2,561 (up from 2,384 last month, about 800 more wells than will be drilled this calendar year)
A total of 2,561 wells off-line. That's two-to-three times the number of wells that will be drilled in North Dakota this year.

Look at the jump in the number of "inactive" wells -- up 150 from the previous report.

Just saying.

Link here. 
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