The Director's Cut Has Been Posted -- November, 2018, Data; Number Of Producing Wells Drops; Crude Oil Production Drops A Little Over 1%

Updates

January 16, 2019: short article in The Williston Herald.  

Original Post 

Link here.

... and the number is ... 1,375,803 bopd -- just shy of the all-time record set last month. But clearly it was due to number of wells taken off line:

Producing wells:

• November, 2018: 15,237
• October, 2018: 15,352 (revised up from 15,344) -- a new all-time high
• a delta of (115)
• delta, percent: a decrease of slightly less than 1%

Production, boe:

• crude oil: 1,375,803 bopd (operators self-restricted about 100,000 bopd according to The Williston Herald
• natural gas: 2,522,875 = 420,409 boepd
• total boe: 1,796,212 boepd

Legacy Fund deposits could be disappointing in January, 2019. 

Producing wells:

• November, 2018: 15,237
• October, 2018: 15,352 (revised up from 15,344) -- a new all-time high
• a delta of (115)
• delta, percent: a decrease of slightly less than 1%
  

Link here.

The usual disclaimer applies: this page is done very quickly. There will be factual and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source. 

The Director's Cut for the November, 2019, data has been posted. It will download as a PDF on your desktop.

Last month's production number -- an all-time high -- was revised upward to: 1,392,369 bodp (the original estimate was 1,391,877 bopd). 

Crude oil production:

• November, 2018: 1,375,803 bopd
• October, 2018: hits a new all-time high, revised-- 1,392,369 bopd
• delta, bbls: (16,566)
• delta, percent: a decrease of 1.2% month-over-month

Producing wells:

• November, 2018: 15,237
• October, 2018: 15,344 -- a new all-time high

Natural gas production:

• November, 2018, 2,522,875 MCF/day
• October, 2018: 2,561,988 MCF/day, revised slightly down from 2,562,465 MCF/day) -- an all-time high
• delta, cubic feet: 35,031 Mcf/d
• delta, percent: 1.4%

Permitting:

• December, 2018: 92
• November, 2018: 116
• October, 2018: 183
• September, 2018: 113

Off line:

• DUCs: 957, down 2 from last report (tracked here)
• inactive: 1,381, up 18 from last report
• total: 2,338 (up from 2,322 in the last report; this is way more than the total number of wells that will be drilled in North Dakota this year)

Flaring:

• statewide, captured: 1,995,853 Mcf/day -- daily rate (November, 2018); slightly less than last month
• statewide, capture: 79% -- 80% last month; and, 82% the month before
• FBIR Bakken: 73% -- same as the previous month
• current goal: 88%

All Politics; Nothing About The Bakken -- January 15, 2019

Re-posting:

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Sucking All The Oxygen Out Of The Room

After looking at the graphic, note who is not even on the graphic:

• Beto
• Oprah
• Bernie
• Pocahontas
• and, the biggest name of all not on the list: Hillary!

This has to be very, very concerning for "mainstream" (and I use the term loosely) Democrats. 

I'm reposting this because there was an op-ed this morning (elsewhere, no link) with a good argument that the "early" favorite for the Democratic presidential nominee in 2020 is Kamala Harris. I would have to agree -- based on the arguments presented in that op-ed. Harris did not distinguish herself during the Kavanaugh hearings but that was all politics and she was talking to her base with an eye on the Democratic presidential nomination.

I'm not sure if Occasional-Cortex is yet aware that she is not legally able to become president. I believe there is no legal reason why she cannot run, but the constitution right now says she can't serve as president of the US. 

Resonance Reports A Madison Well 35 Miles NNE Of Minot -- January 15, 2019

This well came off the confidential list today:

• 35069, 16, Resonance Exploration, Resonance Issendorf 16-10H, Russel oil field; target: Spearfish/Madison, t8/18; cum 3K 11/18;

Russell oil field, Bottineau County, is about 35 miles NNE of Minot -- a long way from the Bakken.  From the NDIC file report:

• a horizontal well targeting the Berentson porosity zone below the Mississippian Unconformity
• depth of IP test: 3,397 feet
• stimulated with acid, but not fracked
• Neset
• spud: July 15, 2018
• drilling the curve began July 18, 2018; took about 36 hours to build the curve
• lateral drilling began July 21, 2018
• cease drilling: July 24, 2018
• TVD: 3,407.64 feet
• directional: 5,380.44 feet
• permit: a Madison well; spacing unit, 640 acres
• of the four active Madison wells in that field, only one is somewhat remarkable, having been drilled in 1963 with a cumulative production of 293K bbls

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The Book Page

A History of the Arab Peoples: Albert Hourani, c. 1991

Some terms, some still used, some not:

• Maghrib: northwest Africa
• Mashriq: Middle East
• Andalus: the Muslim parts of the Iberian peninsula
• Syria: a modern day country, but also a larger physical, social region with common historical experiences
• caliphate = empire; caliph: successor

From the prologue to give an example of the unity and extension of the Arab peoples:

Mamluk sultanate: Cairo was the capital; one of the greatest Muslim states of the time 

Historians have traditionally broken the era of Mamlūk rule into two periods—one covering 1250–1382, the other, 1382–1517. Western historians call the former the "Baḥrī" period and the latter the "Burjī" due to the political dominance of the regimes known by these names during the respective eras. Contemporary Muslim historians refer to the same divisions as the "Turkish" and "Circassian" periods in order to stress the change in the ethnic origins of the majority of Mamlūks.

Timur (Tamerlane), 1336 – 1405: one of the great Asian conquerors;

created an empire which stretched from northern India to Syria and Anatolia; "islamized and iranized" his empire; born in Uzbekistan; Timur gained control of the western Chagatai Khanate by 1370. From that base, he led military campaigns across Western, South and Central Asia, the Caucasus and southern Russia, and emerged as the most powerful ruler in the Muslim world after defeating the Mamluks of Egypt and Syria, the emerging Ottoman Empire, and the declining Delhi Sultanate.[7] From these conquests, he founded the Timurid Empire, but this empire fragmented shortly after his death. 

Part I: The Making of a World, 7th to 10th Century

The notes will be continued elsewhere.

Penultimate! We Don't See That Often -- RBN Energy -- January 15, 2019

Permian: Chevron capex. From Bloombergvia Rigzone. Data points:

• about half its CAPEX will go into the Permian
• projects yield quick returns over the next three years
• [note, memo to self: need to reply to silver/gold bug that shale will never be profitable]
• CVX will spend up to $10 billion/year on "short-cycle investments" through 2022
• Permian: will pump one in five bbls (i.e., 20%) produced by the world's major oil companies

Overblown: from oilprice -- fears of shale oil demise may be overblown.

Not overblown: Powerball million-dollar ticket winner sold in North Dakota. No one has claimed it yet. But "they" know who won:

“Pick & Click is a great service in which players never miss a draw or possibly misplace a ticket. Tickets are tracked for players and they are notified of any winnings.”

This was "pick and click online" which suggests that my dad is still playing the lottery from heaven, probably alongside St Francis of Assisi. .

ISO New England. Spiked to $150/MW earlier this morning; still using coal and oil, albeit almost negligible.

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Back to the Bakken

The Director's Cut should be released late this afternoon. Link here. I was surprised that The Bismarck Tribune didn't have any forecast on what the latest production numbers might be. 

Two wells coming off the confidential list today -- Tuesday, January 15, 2019

• 35069, 16, Resonance Exploration, Resonance Issendorf 16-10H, Russel oil field; target: Spearfish/Madison, t8/18; cum 3K 11/18;
• 34651, SI/NC WPX, Lawrence Bull 1-12HD, South Fork, no production reported yet;

Active rigs (I'm somewhat surprised the number of rigs has remained steady despite the time of the year and the pricing of WTI):

$51.30	1/15/2019	01/15/2018	01/15/2017	01/15/2016	01/15/2015
Active Rigs	67	55	36	49	156

RBN Energy: part 3, can US LPG export terminals keep up? Wow, what a great problem to have!

U.S. production of natural gas liquids is projected to increase by 17% this year, and by another 10% in 2020, according to RBN’s forecast.

These gains will result in similar increases in the output of propane and normal butane — two NGL purity products generally referred to as LPG — and, with U.S. demand for LPG expected to stay relatively flat, most of the incremental volumes will be sent to export terminals for shipment to foreign buyers. The question is, will the nine U.S. marine terminals that are equipped to send out LPG have enough capacity to handle the much-higher flows? Today, we continue our series with a review of four smaller export terminals along the Gulf and East coasts.

This is the third and penultimate episode in our series in which we’ve been discussing the U.S.’s flip from net LPG importer to net exporter seven years ago and the challenges presented by fast-growing propane/butane export volumes.

Waterborne LPG exports soared to an average of more than 1.1 MMb/d in 2018, with about 92% of those volumes being sent out of the half-dozen LPG terminals in coastal Texas and Louisiana. The rest of the exports-by-ship are flowing through a total of three smaller terminals in the Mid-Atlantic region and Pacific Northwest. We concluded with a review of the Gulf Coast’s — and the U.S.’s — largest LPG export facility: the Enterprise Hydrocarbon Terminal (EHT; dark blue dot and lettering in Figure 1), which is located on the Houston Ship Channel and whose capacity is in the midst of being expanded to 720 Mb/d from the current 545 Mb/d.

EHT sent out an average of 447 Mb/d of LPG last year, or about 40% of total U.S. LPG exports by ship.

Seven New Permits -- January 14, 2019

Diesel: oilprice suggests it may be interesting to watch the price of diesel over the next few months. 

Active rigs:

$50.51	1/14/2019	01/14/2018	01/14/2017	01/14/2016	01/14/2015
Active Rigs	67	55	36	51	158

Six new permits:

• Operators: XTO (4); Whiting (2)
• Fields: Temple (Williams); Banks (McKenzie)
• Comments: XTO has permits for a 4-well Bronson pad in 14-159-96; Whiting has permits for a 2-well Renbarger Federal pad in 33-154-97;

Six permits renewed:

• Petro Harvester (2): two LIG1 permits in Burke County
• Lime Rock Resources (2): a Kary permit and a State permit, both in Dunn County
• Nine Point Energy (2): two Little Muddy permits in Williams County

One permit canceled: an EOG Austin permit --

• 34344, PNC, EOG, Austin 405-2919H,

Eight producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed: pending

• 32818, 1,176, CLR, State Weydahl 10-36H2, Corral Creek, t12/18; cum 24K 11/18:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2018	14	23133	23017	35000	28697	26124	2573
BAKKEN	10-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	3	948	948	2057	936	0	936

• 32819, 1,392, CLR, State Weydahl 11-36H, Corral Creek, t12/18; cum 32K 11/18:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2018	14	30761	30606	15321	19612	17853	1759
BAKKEN	10-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	3	1207	1207	1810	866	0	866

• 34695, n/d, CLR, Rolf 6-17H1, Brooklyn, no production data,
• 34696, n/d, CLR, Rolf 5-17H1, Brooklyn, no production data,
• 34697, n/d, CLR, Rolf 4-17H, Brooklyn, no production data,
• 34698, n/d, CLR, Rolf 3-17H1, Brooklyn, no production data, 
• 34205, 2,215, Hess, BB-Chapin-151-95-0506H-9, Blue Buttes, t12/18; cum --; #16975; 
• 34206, 2,954, Hess, BB-Chapin-151-95-0506H-10, Blue Buttes, t12/18; cum --; #16975;