How About 100,000 Bbls Crude Oil In One Month; Or Almost 120K BOE In One Month? -- December 30, 2018

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For newbies: look at these incredible IPs.

100K x $40/bbl at the wellhead = $4 million. The wells cost somewhere between $6 million and $8 million these days. 

The wells:

• 33412, 6,509, MRO, Winona USA 21-2TFH-2B, Antelope, Sanish pool, API - 33-053-07955; 7.4 million gallons; 85% water; 45 stages; 10 million lbs; t4/18; cum 325K 10/18;
• 33413, 8,475, MRO, Chauncey USA 31-2H, Antelope, Sanish pool, API - 33-053-07956; no production data as of 2/18; 11.5 million gallons; 91% water;
• 33414, 5,524, MRO, Wilbur USA 31-2TFH, Antelope, Sanish pool, API - 33-053-07957; 8.5 million gallons; 85% water;
• 33415, 7,572, MRO, June USA 31-2H, Antelope, Sanish pool, API - 33-053-07958; 9.4 million gallons; 84% water, t3/18; cum --
• 33416, 4,892, MRO, Miles USA 41-2TFH-2B, Antelope, Sanish pool, API - 33-053-07959; 8.1 million gallons; 85% water; 45 stages; 11.6 million lbs;t4/18; cum 335K 10/18; 

Look at the jump in production of an old, neighboring well:

• 18471, 380, MRO, Hunts Along USA 12-1H, Antelope-Sanish, t1/11; cum 196K 10/18; 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	10-2018	19	3565	3578	2472	6229	5488	514
SANISH	9-2018	30	6743	6752	4081	9629	7186	2033
SANISH	8-2018	31	8497	8570	6033	12971	7413	5042
SANISH	7-2018	31	16853	16732	9108	22265	9157	12106
SANISH	6-2018	1	152	202	202	101	35	58
SANISH	5-2018	9	5729	5831	2503	5563	577	4336
SANISH	4-2018	10	11627	11845	1149	18321	0	15788
SANISH	3-2018	6	3719	3347	0	3000	0	2180
SANISH	2-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	1-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	12-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	11-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	10-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	9-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	8-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	7-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	6-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	5-2017	8	178	357	38	283	0	236
SANISH	4-2017	30	986	1369	80	1381	0	1092
SANISH	3-2017	31	1042	947	115	1448	0	1147
SANISH	2-2017	28	962	1201	105	1336	0	1065
SANISH	1-2017	31	1112	1261	110	1540	0	1235
SANISH	12-2016	27	941	312	98	1220	191	768

33416:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	10-2018	31	15801	15791	7158	33542	23732	7651
SANISH	9-2018	30	18595	18636	9185	39401	20536	16657
SANISH	8-2018	31	21356	21396	10202	40554	15478	23713
SANISH	7-2018	31	26812	26871	12126	38911	11824	25442
SANISH	6-2018	30	41009	41140	19498	57893	9318	45596
SANISH	5-2018	29	40831	41028	18216	43707	22900	18292
SANISH	4-2018	25	61077	60477	2658	80324	29295	44297
SANISH	3-2018	3	340	330	0	722	13	623

33415:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	10-2018	24	15969	15992	5322	30106	21343	6725
SANISH	9-2018	30	23102	23195	9898	51939	27093	22011
SANISH	8-2018	31	31245	31326	10596	53379	20266	31148
SANISH	7-2018	31	41787	41839	11741	62579	18718	41294
SANISH	6-2018	29	58158	58403	19449	82731	13311	65187
SANISH	5-2018	27	63810	63641	21593	74434	43379	27035
SANISH	4-2018	15	48130	49164	12675	30371	15682	9434
SANISH	3-2018	17	50837	49318	0	67443	1283	60547

33414:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	10-2018	31	15827	15813	6119	33642	23740	7741
SANISH	9-2018	30	18202	18284	8268	41131	21443	17449
SANISH	8-2018	31	25675	25748	12887	44270	16789	25865
SANISH	7-2018	31	35126	35163	15001	45119	13474	29520
SANISH	6-2018	30	47903	48118	18604	70862	11382	55961
SANISH	5-2018	29	53884	54017	20477	66564	35649	27532
SANISH	4-2018	23	67931	67853	13835	104530	31700	65348
SANISH	3-2018	5	10703	10383	0	20861	390	18255

33413: 66,440 bbls over 20 days extrapolates to 99,660 bbls over 30 days --

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	10-2018	31	17552	17529	5285	38175	26889	8859
SANISH	9-2018	30	19260	19329	6552	44894	23436	19046
SANISH	8-2018	31	25174	25246	8511	49542	18850	29078
SANISH	7-2018	31	34314	34405	14575	54130	16242	35768
SANISH	6-2018	30	54799	55023	20364	89764	14522	71100
SANISH	5-2018	30	59395	59250	17477	71577	39676	28168
SANISH	4-2018	14	46057	47578	14265	26409	14076	7310
SANISH	3-2018	20	66440	64455	0	77022	1780	67976

33412:73,742 bbls over 23 days extrapolates to 96,185 bbls over 30 days -- add in 110,353 MCF/23 days =  22,000 boe and then we get almost 120K boe over 30 days --

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	10-2018	31	23790	23782	16121	46764	32897	10770
SANISH	9-2018	30	28907	28982	13617	55630	28895	23478
SANISH	8-2018	31	34545	34608	16623	55568	21058	32353
SANISH	7-2018	31	42992	43073	20637	58782	17304	38864
SANISH	6-2018	30	63854	63992	25526	86756	13917	68246
SANISH	5-2018	29	57292	57449	31612	69111	38908	26595
SANISH	4-2018	23	73742	73099	4701	100353	30645	61613
SANISH	3-2018	2	304	295	0	1286	15	892

Boston Importing LNG From Russia; Pocahontas Seems Oblivious -- December 30, 2018

From a reader:

The Belgian LNG ship 'Exemplar' is currently laying off the Massachusetts coast awaiting to offload a shipment of LNG that originated from Yamal and was lifted at a French port.

Crazy and expensive way to keep the lights on in Boston!

We're still vacationing in northeastern New Mexico. It makes it difficult to blog and, worse, the demons return, questioning why I continue to blog. If I continue to blog (and I will) it is because of the notes I receive from readers like the one above. 

 

Going into the new year, I have three choices:

1. discontinue blogging; I've achieved my original objective
2. continue to blog, but a different format, different method
3. no changes, or minimal changes

The first choice is off the board. I will not quit blogging about the Bakken. 

 

I'm leaning strongly toward the second, but my hunch is that no one will notice. The one "constant" will be the Bakken data:

• the daily activity report
• the monthly NDIC hearing dockets

To keep the Bakken data in perspective, the other "constants" will include:

• the EIA's weekly petroleum report
• the RBN Energy daily blog

After that, I'm not sure where I will go with the blog. 

 

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New Links

There are two new links, from the same source, the EIA. The Year in Review. 

• the Electric Power Annual 2017
• average price of electricity to ultimate customers

I always find it interesting how things turn out. 

 

Last night I was reviewing the "average price of electricity" in the US and noted that electricity in North Dakota costs almost exactly half what it costs in Boston. Residential, numbers rounded/KWh:

• North Dakota:  10 cents
• Boston: 20 cents

What an incredibly unfair regressive tax leveled on the poor and the middle class. If one lives in North Dakota, and your monthly electricity bill is $150, all things being equal one would pay $300 in Boston. 

There's a glut of natural gas in the US. North Dakota, and I assume Texas, is flaring record amounts of natural gas. There's no "national" sense of urgency to help the middle class when it comes to energy. Ayn Rand's heroes could solve the problem overnight but the faux environmentalists and Deep State do what they can to slow things down. 

Be that as it may. Look at the costs of electricity across the US at the link above. 

Most interesting data point: in the Pacific Northwest where electricity should be practically "free" due to all hydroelectric power, it's about the same as in North Dakota:

• Oregon: 11 cents (higher than North Dakota)
• Washington State: 10 cents (slightly lower than North Dakota)

California, lumped with Oregon and Washington by the EIA, almost double North Dakota at 18 cents.

Texas, where electricity costs are going up due to "renewable energy" initiatives still hangs in there at 11 cents. There's a lot of "competition" to keep electric prices down in Texas, but the 'renewable energy" scam is a huge threat.

Week 52: December 23, 2018 -- December 29, 2018

International energy
US producers delivering a one-two punch to OPEC
China sets LNG import record; whopping y-o-y increase; and, here;
IEA forecasts US crude oil production to pass that of Russia/Saudi Arabia combined

National, non-energy:
US sets record holiday sales; up 42% over previous record set on year

Top Bakken economy story
Taxable sales and purchases, 3Q18 

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories
Belfield to see more construction in 2019; due to Davis Refinery west of city
Even if school bond passes, property taxes lower than most -- Williston Herald
With 600 students, crowding a concern in Killdeer schools -- Dickinson Press

Killdeer hopes to have new school by December 2020 -- Dunn County Herald

Sloulin Field lease amended to allow larger planes in airport's final months -- Williston Herald 

WAWS water project plans $50 million request to 2019 North Dakota Legislature -- KX News

Top North Dakota energy stories:
Bakken sets new natural gas production records; flaring

Operations
Enerplus reports a huge "Tungsten" well
EOG reports a huge Clarks Creek well

Natural gas
Bakken sets new records; production; flaring

Bakken economy
Williston office earns international award

Williston Earns International Honor -- Another First -- December 28, 2018

From The Williston Herald:

The Williston Economic Development Office has been recognized for excellence by an international organization.

The city’s Economic Development office has earned accreditation from the International Economic Development Council, and becomes one of 62 economic development organizations to be given the accolade and be recognized as an Accredited Economic Development Organization.

Executive Director Shawn Wenko said Williston's Economic Development office is the first in the state to receive an accreditation from the council.

Earning accreditation is not an easy process. Wenko said his office began back in late May (2018).

The program is quite comprehensive and involves a two-phase peer review process to determine an organization's eligibility. The phases are a documentation review and a site visit.

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The Book Page

I'm ready for three days of relaxing and reading. We're in the Los Alamos area. I've read many, many books on J. Robert Oppenheimer and many books on the Manhattan Project, but I picked up several more from the museum gift shop today:

• Trinity: A Graphic History of the First Atomic Bomb, Jonathan Fetter-Vorm, c. 2012;
• The Los Alamos Primer, Robert Serber, c. 1992,
• 109 East Palace: Robert Oppenheimer and the Secret City of Los Alamos, Jennet Conant, c. 2005;
• Man of the Hour: James B. Conant, Warrior Scientist, Jennet Conant, c. 2017;
• The Los Alamos Primer, Robert Serber, very thin pamphlet; from Los Alamos museum; no copyright

Natural Gas Processing In North Dakota Gets Platts' Attention -- December 28, 2018

New Bakken natural gas processing plant caught the attention of Platts. High points:

• field set new high of 527 mcfpd of flaring in October, 2018
• processing, gathering investment tops $3 billion

From the linked article:

Although natural gas flaring in the Bakken Shale set records in 2018, those levels are starting to fall as the first of one of several processing plants planned for the play is now online, part of over $3 billion in investment activity expected in the coming year.

A processing plant expansion pushed Bakken Shale dry gas production to a record 2 Bcf/d over the past week.

Bakken Shale production has been on the rise in 2018, although it failed to increase significantly in recent months due to processing and flaring constraints.

After closing out 2017 at just under 1.7 Bcf/d, Bakken Shale production pushed above 1.8 Bcf/d for the first time in August, but then hovered around 1.8 Bcf/d to 1.9 Bcf/d, as the region awaited additional processing capacity. The vanguard of said capacity is now online, with Oasis Midstream's Wild Basin plant posting record high deliveries of about 120 MMcf/d to its interconnect with WBI over the past week.

Oasis confirmed to S&P Global Platts the plant was online.

The plant delivered an average of 73 MMcf/d in 2018 up until this point, and never exceeded 103 MMcf on any day.

Wild Basin's expansion from 80 MMcf/d to 260 MMcf/d was completed in November and it is now online. The extra Bakken Shale production is expected to make its way toward Chicago on the Northern Border Pipeline system at the expense of imports from Canada.

Several processing plants and pipeline projects were announced or initiated construction in 2018, representing a combined investment of more than $3 billion, Justin Kringstad, director of the North Dakota Pipeline Authority, said during a December 21 conference call.

Four large-scale processing plants are expected to be completed in 2019, adding a combined 690 MMcf/d of capacity, which is more than the volume currently being flared.

However, construction of most of the projects is not expected to be completed until the middle of 2019 or at the end of year.

"Getting through winter and getting through the first quarter, things are going to remain likely challenging from the gas capture perspective," Kringstad said.

By the end of 2019, Kringstad projects North Dakota will produce 2.9 Bcf/d of gas and 1.49 million b/d of oil.

More at the link.

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The Book Page

As part of our 14-day ski trip and tour of northern New Mexico, we are spending three or four days in Los Alamos. Part of our son-in-law's resume includes: nuclear engineer and US naval submarine officer. He is looking forward to touring the Los Alamos area with his daughters.

We arrived a day early and have scouted the area and visited "the museum." Maybe more on that later.

In the meantime I am re-reading The Triumph and Tragedy of J. Robert Oppenheimer: American Prometheus, Kai Bird and Martin J. Sherwin, c. 2005. I've read it once before -- several years ago -- but I was eager to re-read the last half of the book.

Lots of politics after WWII. What happened to Oppenheimer, politically, after the war, makes this whole dust-up between President Trump and the US Congress regarding the wall look incredibly petty.

What little I've learned about Oppenheimer re-reading Bird and Sherwin, suggests that Oppenheimer, politically, may have been quite naive, but he was certainly a gentleman, a scholar, and a human being of the first order.