Sunday, October 28, 2018

Idle Rambling Regarding EURs In The Bakken -- October 28, 2018

Over at "wells of interest," I go through the wells by permit number: the 16xxx permits; the 17xxx permits; the 18xxx permits; etc. I don't have the statistical data, but it certainly look like ther was a huge jump in production in wells in the 21xxx series. Going through the 16xxx - 18xxx, I don't see a lot of wells approaching 400,000 bbls crude oil (cumulative/total production) but already there are many, many wells in the 21xxx series that are are approaching 500,000 bbls.

I think CLR shows it best in their "EUR" slides which they generally show in their corporate presentations. The latest presentation is at this link.

The "EUR graph" from the September, 2018, presentation:


I'll correct this if I find I'm wrong, but it appears the 21xxx permits were drilled in the 2012 time-frame. If so, look at the EUR line back in 2011 and then in 2014 in the graphic above.

I think most readers remember when we started out in the Bakken -- we were looking at EURs of 375,000.

I think a lot of folks thought Mike Filloon was nuts when he was suggesting 1 million bbls will be the next EUR milestone and that was years ago.

In the graphic above, Harold Hamm is shooting for EURs of 1.2 million boe in the Bakken. Early production in the Bakken is 94% crude oil; as time goes on, the percent of crude oil declines a bit but not by much.

Let's check the Bakken dashboard for October, 2018 (a pdf will download):
  • natural gas production: 25 hundred million cubic feet/day = 420,000 boepd
  • crude oil production: 1,300 thousand bopd = 1,300,000 bopd
  • total = 1,716,600 boepd
  • 420,000 / 1,716,600 = 0.24 or 24%. 
Let's look at the last Director's Cut, data for August, 2018: 
  • Let's look at the last Director's Cut, data for August, 2018:
    • crude oil: 1,291,496 bopd (new all-time high)
    • natural gas: 406,226 boepd
    • total:1,697,721 boepd  
  • 406,226 / 1,697,721 = 24%
Color me surprised: assuming I did the math correctly, as much as 25% of production coming from the Bakken is now natural gas. I'll have to check that again; that seems really, really high but it looks right.

Later: see first comment regarding natural gas and energy / cash equivalence factors  ---
6 MCF/bbl is an energy equivalence factor. It might be more appropriate to use a value equivalence factor to account for the current oil and gas prices. A factor of 20-25 MCF/bbl would yield around 100,000 boepd for the gas production.  
And then see my reply.
Posted by at
Labels: , ,

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- October 28, 2018

Six months ago it was late April; optimists were talking about spring.

Monday, November 5, 2018:
30222, conf, BR, Jerome 41-15MBH, North Fork, no production data,

Sunday, November 4, 2018:
34262, conf, MRO, Yellow Otter USA 14-7TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data,
30547, conf, BR, Merton 41-15TFH ULW, Croff, no production data,
30221, conf, BR, Merton 41-15MBH, North Fork, no production data,

Saturday, November 3, 2018:
34664, conf, EOG, Wayzetta 164-23M, Parshall, target = Souris River; no plans to produce; no production data,
34261, conf, MRO, Young Woman USA 44-12H, Reunion Bay, no production data,

Friday, November 2, 2018:
None.

Thursday, November 1, 2018:
34754, conf, Hunt, Trulson 156-90-11-14H-4, Ross, no production data,
34260, conf, MRO, Walking Eagle USA 44-12TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data, 
32959, conf, Oasis, Ceynar 5298 44-32 14TX, Banks, a nice well:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20182434040407
7-20181720136634
6-20181996742042
5-20182361151957

32958, conf, Oasis, Ceynar 5298 44-32 15BX, Banks, a nice well:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20182480038493
7-20182057543962
6-20182001639733
5-20181920639093

31259, conf, Oasis, Kjorstad 5300 34-22 4T, Willow Creek, producing:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20181719719219
7-201882560
6-2018129935681
5-20181187010033

 Wednesday, October 31, 2018:
None.

Tuesday, October 30, 2018:
34510, conf, MRO, Monteau USA 34-7H, Van Hook, no production data;
34346, conf, Nine Point Energy, Sigma Lee 155-103-14-23-6H, Squires, producing:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20181005612245
7-2018102748819
6-201880020
5-201848270

34321, conf, Nine Point Energy, Sigma Lee 155-103-14-23-7H, Squires, producing:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20181085613525
7-20181307215348
6-2018105080
5-201854010

34227, conf, Kraken Operating, Redfield-Colfax LE 24-13 1TFH, Lone Tree Lake, a nice well:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2018214924209
7-2018191033881
6-2018189354505
5-2018186350

34186, conf, Kraken Operating, Redfield East 24-13 2TFH, Lone Tree Lake, a very nice well:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2018201843892
7-2018176263453
6-2018165883685
5-2018123180

34185, conf, Kraken Operating, Redfield East 24-13 3H, Lone Tree Lake, a very nice well:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2018237594170
7-2018208863737
6-2018278777238
5-2018158780

34184, conf, Kraken Operating, Redfield East 24-13 4TFH, Lone Tree Lake, a nice well:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2018212574220
7-2018178093759
6-2018196454950
5-2018185000

34183, conf, Kraken Operating Redfield East 24-13 5H, Oliver, a very nice, for Oliver:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2018246644651
7-2018203063846
6-2018290067506
5-2018229900

34182, conf, Kraken Operating, Colfax 19-18 4H, Oliver, a very nice well, for Oliver;

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2018232684346
7-2018213173777
6-2018221405252
5-2018206350

34181, conf, Kraken Operating, Colfax 19-18 5TFH, Oliver, a very nice well, for Oliver:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2018242934402
7-2018215394180
6-2018156743262
5-2018163280

Monday, October 29, 2018:
34509, conf, MRO, McKinley USA 24-7TFH, Van Hook, no production data,
31260, conf, Oasis, Kjorstad 5300 34-22 5B, Willow Creek, a nice well --


DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20181567014396
7-20181722014525
6-20182919530614
5-20182950928436

 Sunday, October 28, 2018:
34508, conf, MRO, Dearborn USA 24-7TFH, Van Hook, no production data,

Saturday, October 27, 2018:
34799, conf, Hunt, Nichols 156-90-10-15H-4, Ross, producing, albeit not much,
34507, conf, MRO, Bursha USA 14-7H, Van Hook, no production data,
31261, conf, Oasis, Kjorstad 5300 34-22 6T, Willow Creek, a huge well --

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20182148424706
7-20181114814483
6-20182214321421
5-20182435822189
Posted by at

Have We Talked About Jack Yet? Jack 21-16 1H -- #21046? -- October 28, 2018

Production profile at this post.

At that link, scroll down the production profile and look at the jump in production at various times:
  • production jumped after the first small re-frack in August, 2016
  • production jumped again, and sustained a bit longer, one year later, in August, 2017
  • Once you see the pad, it will make sense. In addition, the well was re-fracked, July 31, 2016 - 
    • August 1, 2016: only 2.9 million gallons of water; and 94% water by weight (very little sand) -- FracFocus; sundry form -- an IP of 820 on the re-frack; 1.4 million lbs of sand and 12 stages; a very, very small frack.
The well:
  • 21046, 2,264, Equinor/Statoil, Jack 21-16 1H, East Fork, 33-105-02260; t5/12; cum 342K 3/20;
For newbies:
  • note the mix of middle Bakken wells and first bench of the Three Forks
  • we haven't even started drilling the lower benches of the Three Forks fro this pad yet
  • note the completion strategy Equinor is using; re-fracking parent wells with small amounts of water/proppant at same time daughter wells are being fracked with optimized completions
  • it appears some fields may be better for re-fracks than other fields; the jury is still out
  • it appears some fields may be better for parent wells than other fields when daughter wells are fracked; the jury is still out;
For newbies: another chapter in the life-history of the Bakken wells that will produce for 35 years. These are the metrics that are important:
  • how fast the well pays for itself -- in the Bakken, improving over time
  • the EUR -- it turns out that the EUR is not static
  • primary production as a percent of original oil in place (OOIP) -- it turns out that this is not static
  • decline rates -- in the Bakken, improving over time
  • operator's management of the asset
  • impact of neighboring wells
The graphics: 



Other wells in the lower graphic:
  • 21045, 3,205, Equinor/Statoil, Ruth 28-33 1H, East Fork,33-105-02259, re-fracked 8/1/16, 12 stages, 1.5 million lbs, IP of 1,226, t4/12; cum 362K 3/20; very small re-frack for huge return; see below

  • 30427, 1,778, Equinor, Ruth 28-33 4TFH, East Fork, t11/16; cum 142K 3/20; just went off line 6/19; intermittent production; back on line 3/20 for 8 days;
  • 30429, 1,770, Equinor, Ruth 28-33 2TFH, East Fork, t11/16; cum 157K 3/20;
  • 30431, 3,256, Equinor, Ruth 28-33 3H, East Fork, t11/16; cum 304K 3/20;
  • 30428, 1,653, Equinor, Jack 21-16 3TFH, East Fork, t11/16; cum 149K 3/20;
  • 30430, 1,438, Equinor, Jack 21-16 8TFH, East Fork, t11/16; cum 155K 3/20;
  • 30432, 2,563, Equinor, Jack 21-16 2H, East Fork, t11/16; cum 277K 3/20;
21045: after the very, very small re-frack in August, 2016, this well produced 55,000 bbls of crude oil over the next 18 months and was off-line much of that time; at $50/bbl = $2.8 million. 
BAKKEN12-20171928333118595519831682182
BAKKEN11-2017307180686912984744157551403
BAKKEN10-201731585157671221648484509133
BAKKEN9-20172833883374103063107292341
BAKKEN8-2017314686456313667382236531
BAKKEN7-20170000000
BAKKEN6-20170030000
BAKKEN5-2017319391159543
BAKKEN4-201721338136000
BAKKEN3-2017625352464710339143457303
BAKKEN2-2017259934986426914104319652342
BAKKEN1-2017311171311892329101289311505815
BAKKEN12-201613531349062239459235040603
BAKKEN11-20163003140000
BAKKEN10-20164281024961757630511862887
BAKKEN9-201630000000
BAKKEN8-20160000000
Posted by at

Wow! Why I Love To Blog -- They Must Be Reading The Blog -- October 28, 2018

Readers are aware that the natural gas story may be the energy story for 2018. See "NG_Fill_Rate" tag; the "NG_Fill_Rate_2018_2019" tag; and, the "NG_2018" tag. Now this headline story over at oilprice.com: can US gas demand keep up with surging production? That's a crazy headline. The headline should read: can US natural gas producers/logistics keep up with winter demand? After all, that's what the sub-headline asks: natural gas production in the US hit another high this week, but storage capacity may pose a problem heading into the winter months.

Hmmmm....interesting. I had missed that angle. Looking at the EIA data I wasn't seeing that story. The fill rate is at historic lows, well off the 5-year minimum. One would not think there's a storage problem. So let's see what oilprice.com has to say. If it's written by Nick Cunningham, I'll give it a pass. LOL.

Nope. Haley Zaremba. So, here goes. Data points:
  • US natural gas production last weekend: 87 billion cubic fee/day -- another record
  • total gas supply now stands at 91 bcf/d "before we even head into winter"
    • note: in the northern tier, once one gets to the end of  October, we have "headed into winter even if the calendar does not say that"; just saying;
  • oh, now I get it; I see what she's saying -- exactly what the EIA has been telling us
    • because of its quick draw, natural gas storage is critical 
    • currently storage is at a 10-year low -- a ten-year low
    • [the author also notes the problem in the Pacific Northwest]
    • estimates for the coming week: an injection rate of 50-60 bcf; well below last week and cleraly not nearly enough to make a dent in the persistent storage deficit
      • Reuters poll
        • a range of 39 bcf to 65 bcf
        • a median build of 51 bcf
        • one year ago: 63 bcf
        • 5-year average: 77 bcf
    • and this is on top of the existing shortage: again, storage is at a ten-year low
  • close reading of the article, and other sources suggest it will be a regional problem
    • New England, for sure
  • whether natural gas becomes the energy story of 2018 depends on two things:
    • how bad the winter is regionally; and,
    • how robust the pipelines are
But, the headline still seems a bit misleading. If I understand this correctly, the "storage problem" is not the "lack of storage" or the "availability of storage," but rather the "fill rate" and right now the fill rate is very, very low. I don't think the writer said "why" the fill rate was so low.

If the US is producing at record rates, why is fill-rate so low and storage at a 10-year low.

Answer: compare the fuel mix in New England two years ago with the fuel mix in New England right now. Coal. As recently as two years ago, New England was using coal. Now, no coal shows up in their fuel mix. The region has switched over to mostly (almost 70%) natural gas; no coal. So, despite the fact that we are not into winter yet, the regions of the country that get colder sooner are already tapping into that natural gas reserve. At least that's my take.

By the way, at the linked ISO New England dashboard note that nuclear energy provides 21% of the regions needs. The region will pretty much shut down nuclear energy in the next couple of years.

*************************************
No Worries About Natural Gas

Sophia at breakfast and her connected world.

Posted by at
Labels: , ,

No News Regarding The DAPL -- Iowa Supreme Court Still Quiet -- October 28, 2018

From The Des Moines Register, September 1, 2018:
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on Friday completed more than a year of additional study of the Dakota Access oil pipeline, saying the work substantiated its earlier determination that the pipeline poses no significant environmental threats.
U.S. District Judge James Boasberg in June 2017 ruled that the Corps "largely complied" with environmental law when permitting the $3.8 billion, four-state pipeline built by Texas-based Energy Transfers Partners.
However, the judge also ordered more study because he said the agency didn't adequately consider how an oil spill under the Missouri River might affect the Standing Rock Sioux tribe's fishing and hunting rights, or whether it might disproportionately affect the tribal community — a concept known as environmental justice. It aims to ensure development projects aren't built in areas where minority populations might not have the resources to defend their rights.
In its initial analysis of the Missouri River crossing that skirts the northern edge of the Standing Rock Reservation along the North Dakota-South Dakota border, the Corps studied the mostly white demographics in a half-mile (0.8-kilometer) radius, which the agency maintained is standard. But if the Corps had gone another 88 yards (80 meters) — not quite the length of a football field — the study would have included the reservation.
For the archives. 
Posted by at
Labels:
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)