Thursday, July 5, 2018

Saudi Foreign Reserves Fall Again -- July 5, 2018

Jobs: ADP -- private sector added 177,000 jobs in June. May numbers revised up to 189,000 from 178,000. The June number was close to the forecast who had expected an average of 190,000.
The government's monthly data will be released Friday. The unemployment rat is expected to hold steady at 3.8%, an 18-year low. Heaven forbid for the Trump team if unemployment ticks up to 4%. The mainstream media will have a field day, as they say.

I no longer pay much attention to "jobs" data any more. I've long forgotten the "thresholds." From the blog:
Economists estimate the labor market needs to create about 125,000 jobs a month to keep the unemployment rate steady, though estimates vary -- Reuters.
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Doubts Grow

I said from the very beginning and have brought it up many times since: strong doubts that we will ever see the Aramco IPO. My reasons for doubting the IPO were probably wrong (maybe not) but regardless, "doubts grow," according to The WSJ. 

I track the Saudi Aramco IPO here.

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Saudi Foreign Exchange Reserves

A reminder: prices have been inching up in May. Foreign exchange reserves, I assume, = income - expenses. And Saudi has a lot of expenses.

Just posted today at this link:



Men Are From Mars, Women From Venus -- July 5, 2018; A Shout-Out To McDonald's; Tesla, Brakes, Surge

Pardon the interruption, breaking news. Don suggested that for Tesla to surge its production in the last week of the quarter/month, there are going to be a lot of quality issues 90 days from now. And here it is, less than a week after the end of the quarter, from oilprice.com: 
  • Tesla reportedly skipped brake test to hit Model 3 target. 
At least if you're going to skip something in the production cycle, you might as well skip something relatively unimportant. LOL. 

Now, back to the original post.

From SeekingAlpha. I am posting this only to educate myself regarding US sour. There is no other reason why I am posting this.

MARS:
Sellers of U.S. sour crude grades have lowered prices also because OPEC and allies agreed in June to boost production by an unspecified number, which Saudi Arabia interprets as an increase of up to 1 million bpd.
Currently, the U.S. Mars grade for Asian customers for October delivery is offered at US$1.00-1.50 a barrel premium over the Dubai benchmark on a cost-and-freight basis—down by at least US$0.50 per barrel from the Mars grade prices for September delivery.
The current Mars pricing is on par with the Middle Eastern sour crude Oman.
Bakken is sweet. From oilprice.com:


But I do believe, and correct me if I'm wrong, it's considerably less expensive to produce Williston sour than it is to produce Williston sweet. [Later: see first two comments.]

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A Huge Shout Out To McDonald's

McDonald's is in the midst of renovating many of its US restaurants.
According to a recent investor conference call, McDonald’s will use a big part of its saving from the new lower corporate tax to give 4,000 of its stores a facelift.
Obviously McDonald's made this decision to renovate well before the Trump tax bill but they might have increased the number of restaurants to be renovated, or expedited the schedule based on the corporate tax cut from 35% to 21%.

The two McDonald's restaurants that I bike to on a regular basis were both recently renovated. I visited a third renovated McDonald's on a recent cross-country trip. At all three I spoke to the managers.

All three managers I spoke to were women; one was Hispanic; one was African-American (the favorite of the three, for me, but they were all incredible); the third was a millenial 25-ish (she was probably an assistant manager working the evening shift). 

Apparently there were three options that local managers could choose from if their restaurant was chosen for renovation (it's possible, I don't know, for a manager to decline renovation if he/she wanted).

As an aside: at a fourth McDonald's that I visit weekly -- too far to bike but where I go when I take our older granddaughter for water polo practice -- has not yet been renovated. I don't know if it's scheduled to be renovated. About a month ago, the service at that restaurant deteriorated, literally overnight. I cannot articulate how "awful" the employees were -- they seemed to have been recruited from a local gang -- I am not making that up. It was really weird.

Then, all of a sudden, literally overnight, again, everything changed. All new employees, and the service was remarkable. I was amazed how this restaurant changed on a dime and suggests that corporate literally has the pulse of each of its restaurants, franchise or owned by the company. Just a guess.

Whatever.

Yesterday, I biked to the most recently renovated McDonald's in our area. I again spoke to the manager -- she was the African-American woman I really like. Of the three options she was given to choose from, she selected the one that maintained/increased the size of the footprint. It was a "huge" McDonald's. I don't know if it was bigger than the previous building (I don't think so) but its layout was so open, so airy, it seemed 50% bigger. PlayPlace was as nice as ever. It included a fairly large "tablet" for children to use.

For the adults, as noted, it was huge. I was alarmed however when I noted there were not power outlets to be seen. I looked everywhere, and the two power outlets that had been there prior to the renovation were gone. I assumed McDonald's had gone back to discouraging people like me from hanging around charging their phones/laptops.

And then I saw it -- how could I have missed it. Right in the middle was a long, narrow high table (the kind often seen at airports) with high stools, and then underneath the table, easily accessible, six power outlets on either side: a total of 12 power outlets. Very, very impressive.

Most McDonald's that I have visited that have the self-ordering kiosks, only have one double-sided kiosk. The one I visited yesterday: four double-sided kiosks.

McDonald's says they did not place the kiosks there to cut the number of employees. I don't know. Time will tell. I do think kiosks will increase the size of the average order (we've discussed this before) and the kiosks free up McDonald's employees to do other things, like clean up the tables, etc.

McDonald's continues to practically give their soda/fountain drinks away for free. A dollar for any size, and in some of their restaurants, the cups are easily accessible, making it likely that some "customers" may be simply coming in, grab a drink and not pay. Probably not, but one wonders.

"Senior coffee" is 50 cents at McDonald's but one has to often ask for it. I used to, but don't any more. The manager says that employees have to be careful assuming someone is a senior; she said that some folks are insulted if they are "identified" as a senior. I think McDonald's consider those over 55 as seniors. I don't know; I forgot to ask.

"Senor coffee" at McDonalds, 50 cents. A simply tall Pike Place at Starbucks: $2.11 (tax included).

One more thing, regarding renovation. A McDonald's restaurant is generally composed of four separate, physical spaces: the PlayPlace; the dining-in restaurant/ordering; the kitchen; and, drive-through. Managers were given the option how to proceed with renovation. One of the two restaurants I bike to elected to close completely and renovate all at once. The one I visited yesterday, the manager said she elected to stay open and do the renovation in stages. She saw how long the other restaurant was closed while the full renovation was done, and she didn't want to lose that much business. Instead, she kept the drive-through open while dining-in and PlayPlace were renovated, and once that was completed, opened the latter while the drive-through was being completed.

Very clever.

And they still serve breakfast all day long. Hash browns (150 calories with 9 grams fat/1.5 grams saturated) for a buck. A chocolate croissant (370 calories with 20 grams fat/12 grams saturated) at Starbucks for $2.98 before tax.

COP Temporarily Exits The Permian; Will Focus On The Eagle Ford /Bakken -- But Also Assets In Alaska -- July 5, 2018

Wow, look at this. Again, this is not an investment site.

I have no idea if lessons learned during the Bakken revolution influenced what is going on in Alaska, but one wonders. Look at this SeekingAlpha link regarding COP.

This is a rig targeting a conventional target.


From the screenshot, COP:
  • the increase in length to 28,000 feet is 40% greater than previously
  • 1.4 of what = 28,000 feet? 20,000 feet? 
  • 1.4 x 20,000 = 28,000 feet
I don't know if that's TD (vertical + horizontal) or simply the length of the horizontal; it appears they are talking about the horizontal length.
  • using this method, COP hit a new record for highest initial production in Alaska, >10,000 bopd
Now compare with the Bakken:
  • TD: routinely 20,000 feet (vertical + horizontal)
  • horizontal alone: 9,000 feet
  • initial production, about 15,000 bbls/month, but CLR might have set a Bakken record with >80,000 bbls/month or about 2,500 bopd (an outlier right now)
From the SeekingAlpha article:
  • cost of producing Alaska conventional crude oil for COP: $30 / bbl
Also from the article, the writer reminds us that COP has recently announced that the company is "exiting" the Permian in the near term:
The plans to defer Permian growth are not that significant. However, the ability to move the capital budget to other basins is very significant. Many have wondered how oil production can grow when all those Permian challenges are front page news. The answer is that the capital simply shifts to areas without problems.
The Eagle Ford and the Bakken have become far more competitive now that the Permian production sells at a discount. Plus both have some idle pipeline capacity.
Management has plans for even more basins in the future. It is highly likely that there will not be an interruption in the unconventional growth plans at all. Some of these other basins already have pipeline capacity additions under construction and are planning for still more capacity. Therefore some of the basins may "never" suffer the challenges of the current Permian situation.
This is the second source that has said the Bakken has "some" idle pipeline capacity. And there's been a bit of a resurgence in CBR in the Bakken. Some have suggested that lack of takeaway capacity is the reason for the number of DUCs we see in the Bakken. That may be right, I don't know. But with refineries operating at 97%+ capacity, I wonder if it might be something else that accounts for DUC data.

Remember, John Kemp says we are in a period of "severe backwardation."

Reality Sucks -- July 5, 2018

TSLA slides another 3% on a day when the market is up 100 points. TSLA's high for the day, $314; it's 52-week high was $390. Great trading stock.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, relationship, job, or travel decisions.

For the record: I really hope Tesla survives. I think it's a neat concept, a nice looking car, and American made (?). But the stock valuation certainly doesn't make sense to a lot of folks, but again, this is not an investment site.

Reported earlier: EU is considering cutting automobile tariffs. Now, breaking new: Merkel says she would support cutting automobile tariffs. Meanwhile, Canada has put a 10% tariff on US ketchup.

Unrelated to any of this, but to drive home the point that this is not an investment site. This is a music site disguised as something else.

In Spanish for Mr Maduro:

Asereje, Las Ketchup

For those who do not speak/comprehend Spanish, including me: las ketchup translates loosely to "ketchup."

From wiki:
In addition to the original Spanish version, the song exists in forms with Spanglish and Portuguese verses, although the nonsensical chorus is identical in all three versions. This song reached number-one in the United Kingdom, as well as 26 other countries worldwide. As of 2006, the song has sold over 7 million copies worldwide, making it one of the best-selling singles of all time.
Funny how things work out. I had a very, very, very mild speech impediment when I was four or five years old (I don't think I ever had a speech impediment; my mom was from Iowa and just didn't like the North Dakota inflection that I had acquired, having spent my first two years of life in Bismarck, before moving to Williston). Had that speech impediment not been corrected, I might have been able to sing Asereje just like those in the video.

Reality sucks. And you thought I was talking about TSLA. LOL. 

My sexual orientation might have been at risk had my mom not affected the change. 

Viva Venezuela: Feliz Cinco de Julio --

From wiki:
The Venezuelan Declaration of Independence (Cinco de Julio) is a statement adopted by a congress of Venezuelan provinces on July 5, 1811, through which Venezuelans made the decision to separate from the Spanish Crown in order to establish a new nation based on the premises of equality of individuals, abolition of censorship and dedication to freedom of expression, and to really screw up a great economy. 
These principles were enshrined as a constitutional principal for the new nation and were radically opposed to the political, cultural, and social practices that had existed during three hundred years of colonization.
Part of that was not at the wiki site. See if you can guess which part.

The endonym for Venezuela is: Republica Bolivariana de Venezuela.

It's only a matter of time before the name change to: The People's Republic of Venezuela. 

Endonym map here. At the link, click on the +/- to zoom in on the countries.



We Gotta Get Out of This Place, The Animals