Thursday, July 5, 2018

Men Are From Mars, Women From Venus -- July 5, 2018; A Shout-Out To McDonald's; Tesla, Brakes, Surge

Pardon the interruption, breaking news. Don suggested that for Tesla to surge its production in the last week of the quarter/month, there are going to be a lot of quality issues 90 days from now. And here it is, less than a week after the end of the quarter, from oilprice.com
  • Tesla reportedly skipped brake test to hit Model 3 target. 
At least if you're going to skip something in the production cycle, you might as well skip something relatively unimportant. LOL. 

Now, back to the original post.

From SeekingAlpha. I am posting this only to educate myself regarding US sour. There is no other reason why I am posting this.

MARS:
Sellers of U.S. sour crude grades have lowered prices also because OPEC and allies agreed in June to boost production by an unspecified number, which Saudi Arabia interprets as an increase of up to 1 million bpd.
Currently, the U.S. Mars grade for Asian customers for October delivery is offered at US$1.00-1.50 a barrel premium over the Dubai benchmark on a cost-and-freight basis—down by at least US$0.50 per barrel from the Mars grade prices for September delivery.
The current Mars pricing is on par with the Middle Eastern sour crude Oman.
Bakken is sweet. From oilprice.com:


But I do believe, and correct me if I'm wrong, it's considerably less expensive to produce Williston sour than it is to produce Williston sweet. [Later: see first two comments.]

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A Huge Shout Out To McDonald's

McDonald's is in the midst of renovating many of its US restaurants.
According to a recent investor conference call, McDonald’s will use a big part of its saving from the new lower corporate tax to give 4,000 of its stores a facelift.
Obviously McDonald's made this decision to renovate well before the Trump tax bill but they might have increased the number of restaurants to be renovated, or expedited the schedule based on the corporate tax cut from 35% to 21%.

The two McDonald's restaurants that I bike to on a regular basis were both recently renovated. I visited a third renovated McDonald's on a recent cross-country trip. At all three I spoke to the managers.

All three managers I spoke to were women; one was Hispanic; one was African-American (the favorite of the three, for me, but they were all incredible); the third was a millenial 25-ish (she was probably an assistant manager working the evening shift). 

Apparently there were three options that local managers could choose from if their restaurant was chosen for renovation (it's possible, I don't know, for a manager to decline renovation if he/she wanted).

As an aside: at a fourth McDonald's that I visit weekly -- too far to bike but where I go when I take our older granddaughter for water polo practice -- has not yet been renovated. I don't know if it's scheduled to be renovated. About a month ago, the service at that restaurant deteriorated, literally overnight. I cannot articulate how "awful" the employees were -- they seemed to have been recruited from a local gang -- I am not making that up. It was really weird.

Then, all of a sudden, literally overnight, again, everything changed. All new employees, and the service was remarkable. I was amazed how this restaurant changed on a dime and suggests that corporate literally has the pulse of each of its restaurants, franchise or owned by the company. Just a guess.

Whatever.

Yesterday, I biked to the most recently renovated McDonald's in our area. I again spoke to the manager -- she was the African-American woman I really like. Of the three options she was given to choose from, she selected the one that maintained/increased the size of the footprint. It was a "huge" McDonald's. I don't know if it was bigger than the previous building (I don't think so) but its layout was so open, so airy, it seemed 50% bigger. PlayPlace was as nice as ever. It included a fairly large "tablet" for children to use.

For the adults, as noted, it was huge. I was alarmed however when I noted there were not power outlets to be seen. I looked everywhere, and the two power outlets that had been there prior to the renovation were gone. I assumed McDonald's had gone back to discouraging people like me from hanging around charging their phones/laptops.

And then I saw it -- how could I have missed it. Right in the middle was a long, narrow high table (the kind often seen at airports) with high stools, and then underneath the table, easily accessible, six power outlets on either side: a total of 12 power outlets. Very, very impressive.

Most McDonald's that I have visited that have the self-ordering kiosks, only have one double-sided kiosk. The one I visited yesterday: four double-sided kiosks.

McDonald's says they did not place the kiosks there to cut the number of employees. I don't know. Time will tell. I do think kiosks will increase the size of the average order (we've discussed this before) and the kiosks free up McDonald's employees to do other things, like clean up the tables, etc.

McDonald's continues to practically give their soda/fountain drinks away for free. A dollar for any size, and in some of their restaurants, the cups are easily accessible, making it likely that some "customers" may be simply coming in, grab a drink and not pay. Probably not, but one wonders.

"Senior coffee" is 50 cents at McDonald's but one has to often ask for it. I used to, but don't any more. The manager says that employees have to be careful assuming someone is a senior; she said that some folks are insulted if they are "identified" as a senior. I think McDonald's consider those over 55 as seniors. I don't know; I forgot to ask.

"Senor coffee" at McDonalds, 50 cents. A simply tall Pike Place at Starbucks: $2.11 (tax included).

One more thing, regarding renovation. A McDonald's restaurant is generally composed of four separate, physical spaces: the PlayPlace; the dining-in restaurant/ordering; the kitchen; and, drive-through. Managers were given the option how to proceed with renovation. One of the two restaurants I bike to elected to close completely and renovate all at once. The one I visited yesterday, the manager said she elected to stay open and do the renovation in stages. She saw how long the other restaurant was closed while the full renovation was done, and she didn't want to lose that much business. Instead, she kept the drive-through open while dining-in and PlayPlace were renovated, and once that was completed, opened the latter while the drive-through was being completed.

Very clever.

And they still serve breakfast all day long. Hash browns (150 calories with 9 grams fat/1.5 grams saturated) for a buck. A chocolate croissant (370 calories with 20 grams fat/12 grams saturated) at Starbucks for $2.98 before tax.

6 comments:

  1. re: I do believe, and correct me if I'm wrong, it's considerably less expensive to produce Williston sour than it is to produce Williston sweet.

    i'm not correcting you cause i have no idea, but why would it cost less to produce Williston sour?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I was thinking of Spearfish wells: sour, shallow, vertical wells.

      This is one post:

      https://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2010/02/spearfish-another-formation-ready-for.html.

      Scroll down and note how inexpensive they are drilling these wells.

      This post suggests that oil from Spearfish wells is sour:

      https://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2011/03/legacy-update-on-spearfish-wells-in.html.

      These are mostly Corinthian, Legacy, Surge Energy wells to the north of Williston, near the Canadian border; note the data point that says Enbridge would not put Spearfish sour into their pipeline system because it was sour oil. They would truck it back to Canada to put it into the system there.

      Shallow, vertical wells, no fracking, being drilled for $1 million / per well at the time some of those posts were posted, when Bakken wells were costing upwards of $10 million/well.

      Delete
    2. ok. different kind of wells, different depth. like i said, i had no idea why. looking at a map, the williston basin looks like a homogeneous grey blob to me...

      Delete
    3. Yes, the Spearfish contributes very little to the current production coming out of North Dakota; completely different than the Bakken.

      Boy, you had me worried there for a minute, wondering if I could find some rationale for my comments. Thank you for putting me to the test. LOL.

      Delete
    4. hah, yeah, i had a thought that you might just be blowing smoke...but i had no idea where williston sour would come from, since everything i read identifies bakken crude as sweet and very light...

      Delete
    5. Pretty funny! Sorry for the late reply; I was biking home in the dark. Made it safely.

      Delete