Dow Drops 1,000 Points In One Week; Gasoline Demand Slowing -- Something Going On? US Economy Faltering? -- March 24, 2018

Link here.

Gasoline demand, weekly graph.

It's Still A Great Well, But Not As Good As First Reported -- #31637; XTO Lundin In Siverston Oil Field -- March 24, 2018

See this post for updated production data.

Rigs Continue To Rise In US; Plunging In Canada; WTI Moves Up Nicely -- March 23, 2018

FWIW, North American oil and gas rigs:

• US: gained four to 804, which is 152 more than last year at this time
• Canada: lost 58 (after losing 54 last week, losing 29 the week before that); now down to 161 rigs, or 84 fewer rigs than one year ago
• did I hear someone say "ouch"?

Big North Dakota energy stories this past week, from ndenergy.org, briefly:

• DAPL adding $10 million / month to ND coffers; DAPL alone would have paid for schools in Williston in less than a year
• Baby boom: Bakken communities are experiencing a baby boom
• The number of children born in McKenzie County, located at the heart of the Bakken, has more than quadrupled, from just 60 births reported in 2007, to 245 babies born in 2016. Birth rates in other parts of western North Dakota have more than doubled since the oil boom began. There were 712 babies born in Williams County in 2016, compared to only 306 in 2007. Stark County saw 549 births in 2016, compared to 290 in 2007.
• too bad we're not going to have the necessary school rooms
• Natural gas processing expansion: Dunn County supports ONEOK plant expansion; Bear Creek Plant expansion would increase capacity from 80 million to 175 million cf/d
• New refinery: Meridian's Belfield refinery, 45-day comment period
• more than 11,000 comments
• of those, 10,068 were form letters via e-mail; none with relevant comments
• of all comments, 22% received from the west coast, specifically Oregon, Washington, and California
• 1.8% of the comments were from North Dakota respondents

 ********************************

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$65.90↑↑	3/23/2018	03/23/2017	03/23/2016	03/23/2015	03/23/2014
Active Rigs	60	49	32	104	198

Four new permits:

• Operator: Kraken Operating 
• Field: Squires (Williams )
• Comments: Kraken has permits for a 4-well Anseth/Anseth-Sukut pad in NENE 29-155-103;

Another day with no producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed.

No permits canceled.

Three permits renewed:

• Whiting: a Pronghorn State Federal permit (Billings County); a Niemitalo permit (Mountrail County); and a Crosby Creek permit (Dunn County)

Trouble In Paradise -- How's That Renewable Energy Working Out? -- March 23, 2018

Inquiring minds want to know:

• why is the California PUC not directing solar energy companies to start storing solar energy to prepare for this summer's grid demands?
• why is Governor Moonbeam not asking the sun to extend its summer hours?
• why is the California PUC not directing wind turbines to start spinning faster in anticipation of grid demands this summer?
• where is Elon Musk when you really need him?
• where are those batteries?

The EIA graphic that leads to those questions:

From Forbes, 2016:

Besides having the most expensive electricity west of the Mississippi River in the continental U.S., California already has the least reliable electricity. California easily leads the nation with nearly 470 power outages a year, compared to 160 for second place Texas, which is really amazing because Texas produces 125% MORE electricity! California's reliability problems will be multiplied as more wind and solar enter the power mix, intermittent resources located in remote areas that cannot be so easily transported to cities via the grid.

It's crucial to remember that drought and less hydropower available in the Northwest was a determining factor in California's "2000-2001 Power Crisis" that cost the state $50 billion in added energy costs, illustrating the problems of California's over-reliance on outside energy (California also unsustainably imports over 90% of its natural gas, the nation's fastest growing major fuel, and the source that other states will increasingly lean upon most to meet the Clean Power Plan).

For the archives. It's March. Three months to June. 

Random Look At Two Slawson Wells -- Part III -- March 23, 2018

Disclaimer: in a long note like this one, as well as the long notes in Part I and Part II, there will be typographical and factual errors. Facts, comments, and opinions are interspersed and hard to separate or discern. There are a lot of digressions. There is no hidden agenda and no "fake news" -- at least no attempt to post "fake news." I appreciate any fact checking. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Part I here.

Part II here.

The wells under discussion:

• 19207, 613, Slawson, Vagabond 1-27H, Van Hook, t4/11; cum 358K 1/18;
• 19208, 800, Slawson, Water Moccasin 4-34-TFH, Van Hook, t4/11; cum 324K 1/18;

The graphics:

Comments:

• the two wells under discussion would be very inexpensive to drill / complete today (using same amount of sand)
• they were short laterals
• they used small amounts of sand
• the two wells were mediocre at best when originally drilled
• neighboring wells drilled / completed -- these wells went from mediocre to pretty good wells
• data suggests these wells are great candidates for mini-re-fracks and full re-fracks at a later date
• it's impossible to say whether new wells are "compromising" production from older wells, but in this case, it certainly appears the newer wells had a positive effect on the older, shorter laterals; whether or not new wells are "compromising" older wells across the Bakken is hard to tell; analysts much smarter than I suggest that this is happening
• there are 7 horizontal wells in this 1280-acre unit (technically 7.5) and only the middle Bakken and the upper bench of the Three Forks have been targeted
• it's not a stretch to suggest:
• six middle Bakken horizontals
• six TF 1 horizontals
• four TF 2 horizontals
• four TF 3 horizontals
• two TF 4 horizontals
• total: 22 horizontals
• 32-well arrays have been discussed before (see tag at bottom of blog)
• some suggest we could see eight middle Bakken and eight TF 1 and eight TF 3 horizontals in the same spacing, or 24 wells, which does not include TF 2 or TF 4 horizontals
• new wells in spacing units (held by production) require no new leasing; most infrastructure is already in place; geologists can practically forecast likely production for new wells

Bottom line:

• two Bakken wells
• 58,998 more Bakken wells before it's all over

Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. Some analysts suggest the Bakken is pretty much "done."