Thursday, March 8, 2018

Uneventful Day For The Bakken Based On Daily Activity Report -- March 8, 2018

"Arctic" rigs:

$60.12↓↓↓3/8/201803/08/201703/08/201603/08/201503/08/2014
Active Rigs594433114191

Four new permits:
  • Operators: MRO
  • Field: Jim Creek (Dunn County)
  • Comments: MRO has permits for a 4-well pad (Barber, Northrop, Veddy, Drake) pad in NWNE 21-145-96
No producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed.

No permits renewed.

No permits canceled.

Operator transfer: from Petro Harvester Operating to 31 Operating
  • about 44 wells
  • all "old" wells
  • oldest permit:
  • newest permit: 21777 but most of them before 15000
  • oldest permit: 02455
  • with the except of one or two in Renville County or Burke Count, all were in Bottineau County

Oh-Oh! Could WTI Fall Below $60? -- March 8, 2018

At $60.33 right now.

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Saudi Aramco IPO

I've long been skeptical of the IPO. I'm not sure we'll ever see it on a "legitimate" trading platform (NYSE, NASDAQ, etc) but if we do, I've always said it would be delayed.

Now, there are hints that it will be delayed to 2019. In fact, I don't think anyone worth his salt, as they say, thought there would be any legitimate chance the IPO would be launched in 2018. I'll post the link, but I don't think it's news(worthy). More clickbait. I read the headline. That's all.

Later, another story suggesting listing Saudi Aramco on the NYSE would be very, very risky. The big question: legitimate stories or simply clickbait?

Back to Black, Amy Winehouse

Shale Oil Still Defeating Its Skeptics -- Richard Zeits -- March 8, 2018

Well done, Mr Zeits. Over at SeekingAlpha:
  • macro models are finally catching up with unconventional oil realities: U.S. shales are competitive at low oil prices and volumes grew much faster in 2017 than many skeptics had anticipated
  • in recognition of the operational trends, in the last three months alone, the EIA's STEO forecast for U.S. production was revised higher three times
  • the production estimate for Q4 2018 was increased by a staggering 1.0 million barrels per day
  • 2hile the agency's 2018 estimates for U.S. production are now not unreasonable, the 2019 projections are puzzling and face the risk of major upward revisions
With regard to the last bullet (the 2019 projections are puzzling and face the risk of major upward revisions), two comments:
  • bureaucracies are by their very nature, very conservative; they would rather be wrong on the low side than the high side
  • shale production is very, very sensitive to price swings and consumer demand
Archived.

Random Update Of A Whiting P Evitt Well In Truax Field -- March 8, 2018

P Evitt wells are tracked here, but have not been updated in quite some time.

Another with no FracFocus data to suggest it was re-fracked, but neighboring fracking recently completed (see also, #25511):
  • 25581, 2,667, Whiting, P Evitt 154-98-15-12-19-16H, Truax, API No: 33-105-03083, t11/13; cum 327K 8/18; recent production --
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-201820338733664447914872351859
BAKKEN12-20173169277119104072053119996442
BAKKEN11-20173095609530152882683026304437
BAKKEN10-20173111941117282583031761222829392
BAKKEN9-20173015355154095355437905297248094
BAKKEN8-2017223514064062
BAKKEN7-201767356633272001195628
BAKKEN6-20173039714050240393038827387
BAKKEN5-20172019521939122742563686511
BAKKEN4-201730278727851272768175910
BAKKEN3-201726314733282150796244263463

Fanning The Flames Of Discord -- March 8, 2018

I've thought about "this" for the past six months or so. I just don't have the energy to post on this subject. But if folks think the Russians limited their meddling to US politics, folks are incredibly naive.

There are only two countries that have the resources and existential reasons to meddle in US politics: Russia and Saudi Arabia.

I always thought it was Saudi Arabia that was the money behind the puppeteer pulling the anti-fracking and anti-pipeline strings.

Now, without a doubt it was the Russians all along. Again, if folks think the only thing the Russians are interested in is US presidential campaigns, they are very, very naive.

Link here to Detroit Free Press:
At about the same time they were interjecting themselves in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, online trolls from Russia were also tweeting and posting about controversial U.S. energy issues — including Enbridge's Line 5 oil pipeline in the Straits of Mackinac, a Republican report from a U.S. House committee found.
The report, released Thursday by the Republican majority on the U.S. House's Committee on Science, Space and Technology, reviewed evidence provided by Twitter, Facebook and Instagram that the social media giants had identified as Russian accounts linked to the Internet Research Agency, a Russian company based in St. Petersburg "established by the Russian government for the purpose of deceptively using various social and traditional media platforms to advance Russian propaganda," the report states.
The trolls targeted controversial fossil fuel transportation projects between 2015 and 2017, including the Dakota Access Pipeline, a proposed oil transmission line from North Dakota to southern Illinois that prompted national debate amid protests involving American Indians and others in 2016.
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On Another Note

Had President Obama placed tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, something the unions have been begging for, for years, the mainstream media would have give the president much support.

Tariffs on steel and aluminum: good for US workers; bad for Wall Street.

Mainstream media: the silence is deafening.

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Notes to the Granddaughters

Mary Shelley: Romance and Reality, Emily W. Sunstein, c. 1989.

Author says this if the first complete or definitive biography of Mary Wollstonecraft Godwin Shelley -- the only stellar English Romantic author for whom there is no complete or definitive biography.

1780 - 1830: the age of Romanticism.

Namesake daughter of the pioneer feminist Mary Wollstonecraft, died giving her birth in 1797; father was philosopher and novelist William Godwin; she was the lover and wife of Percy Bysshe Shelley; she literally embodies the English Romantic movement.

Romanticism: among its many definitions or qualities, this one -- an intensity not merely in love and sex but in all the passions; expressiveness, imagination, innovation, risk, exploration, exoticism, glory; ordeal and woe.

What distinguishes Mary Shelley is her love of justice, learning, wisdom, and freedom.

Wrote Frankenstein at the age of 19.

Born during the 8th year of the French Revolution.
"At 16 she ran away to live with 21-y/o Shelley, the unhappily married radical heir to a wealthy baronetcy, who personified the genius and dedication to human betterment she passionately admired all her life. Although she was cast out even by her father, the dynamism of this liaison produced her masterpiece, Frankenstein, which she conceived during one of the most famous house parties in literary history with Shelley and [Lord] Byron on Lake Geneva, and wrote while being battered by a series of calamities. The worse of these was the suicide of Shelley's wife. Albeit reluctantly, the lovers married, but fierce public hostility drove them to Italy. Here their two children died, a trauma from which Mary Shelley never entirely recovered. Nevertheless, Shelley empowered her to live as she wished: to enjoy intellectual and artistic growth, love, freedom, and a 'wild, picturesque mode of living ... ' When she was 24, he drowned, leaving her penniless with with a 2-y/o son.
She lived for another 29 years.

Invalided at the age of 48; died of a brain tumor in 1851; poetic timing, just as Prince Albert opened the Great Exhibition, a showcase of technological progress against which she had warned in her most famous book.