One year ago, April, 2016: 407.57.
1.44 / 407.57 = 0.35%
1.44 part per million = 0.000144% increase over the past year.
Watching paint dry.
Tuesday, May 16, 2017
Atmospheric CO2 Update -- April, 2017 Data
One year ago, April, 2016: 407.57.
1.44 / 407.57 = 0.35%
1.44 part per million = 0.000144% increase over the past year.
Watching paint dry.
OPEC Cuts? Another View -- May 16, 2017
Updates
May 21, 2017: see this post, also.
Original Post
From the newsletter that was released two days ago over at Focus on Fracking:
... from this table of official production data, we can see that OPEC oil output was down by a statistically insignificant 18,200 barrels per day in April, to 31,732,000 barrels per day, from a March oil production total of 31,750,000 barrels per day, a figure that was revised 178,000 barrels per day lower than what was reported last month...
... recall that OPEC committed to reducing their production by 1.2 million barrels per day from their October levels (shown here, with Indonesia, who is no longer a member), so these figures show that the total production of the remaining 13 members is within a half percent of the level they agreed to cut back to....
... but note that over 60 thousand barrels of this month's reduction came from Libya, a country that was exempt from the cuts, because their production had been disrupted by domestic unrest....
... news over the past few weeks indicates that Libya has restored over 180,000 barrels per day of production from two oil fields in the western part of the country, and a report just a few days ago indicated that Libya’s oil production is now running above 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) for the first time since 2014, so we can thus expect that May OPEC production will be that much higher...The IEA report released in the past 24 hours suggests things are not as rosy as the IEA headline. Another story of the same here.
The Energy And Market Page, T+116 -- May 16, 2017; Peak Oil? What Peak Oil? USGS Releases Sprayberry Assessment
Observation: the narrative that OPEC and IEA are now pressing -- "re-balancing was almost achieved" in 1Q17 and OPEC and IEA are now suggesting re-balancing will accelerate in 2Q17 leading to supply constraints by the end of the year (2017). WTI is down at the moment (12:20 Central Time), again below $49.
Futures: looking good. Dow 30 futures up 40 points.
$60: in 2017? -- Rigzone. Wood Mackenzie -- based on survey of 170 industry professionals --
Balanced? IEA suggests that "rebalancing" will accelerate now that "we" have achieved "almost balanced" in 1Q17.
Futures: looking good. Dow 30 futures up 40 points.
$60: in 2017? -- Rigzone. Wood Mackenzie -- based on survey of 170 industry professionals --
- $50 - $60 in 2017
- $60 - $80 in 2020
- the article does not specify, but it appears Wood Mackenzie is talking about Brent; WTI has been trending $$3 - $5 less
Balanced? IEA suggests that "rebalancing" will accelerate now that "we" have achieved "almost balanced" in 1Q17.
The Political Page, T+116 -- May 16, 2017; Housing Starts Fall Unexpectedly For Second Straight Month
Ransomware: round up the usual suspects (NOKO).
DNC staffer / wikileaks source murdered: round up the usual suspects (for hints, see first season of House of Cards).
April housing starts: horrendous. Down 2.6% vs 3.7% increase forecast. Does market care? No. Huge, huge decline in the northeast. Hmmmm. See "Hyperdrive" tag. Everything's moving to Texas. From realtynews:
DNC staffer / wikileaks source murdered: round up the usual suspects (for hints, see first season of House of Cards).
April housing starts: horrendous. Down 2.6% vs 3.7% increase forecast. Does market care? No. Huge, huge decline in the northeast. Hmmmm. See "Hyperdrive" tag. Everything's moving to Texas. From realtynews:
- Dallas, #1 in housing starts
- Houston, #2 in housing starts
- April: strongest April in the history of Houston real estate for single-family home sales
- March: record-setting March
- April, housing starts: fell 2.6%
- March, housing starts: fell 6.6%
- Steve Liesman (CNBC): could be due to stricter lending laws in Dodd-Frank (it's been my impression that Liesman loves Dodd-Frank)
- this may not be good for GDPNow forecast
- 1% increase vs 0.4% forecast
- this may be good forGDPNow forecast
*************************************
Update On Moving Bakken Crude To Asia -- May 16, 2017
Active rigs:
RBN Energy: update on moving Bakken crude oil on VLCCs from the gulf to Asia.
US crude oil exports: at this link.
| $49.18 | 5/16/2017 | 05/16/2016 | 05/16/2015 | 05/16/2014 | 05/16/2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 51 | 28 | 83 | 190 | 190 |
RBN Energy: update on moving Bakken crude oil on VLCCs from the gulf to Asia.
US crude oil exports: at this link.
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