Ban On Fracking: That Silly Talk Is Finally Off The Table -- November 9, 2016

Futures (in the market) mean squat. At 8:33 a.m. Central Time, just after the market opened:

And, yes, I know the day is not over. A single swallow does not a spring make.

Politics: I don't know what's "on the table," but I do know this is off the table: any more silly talk of banning fracking. 

Politics: the media went into this election with eyes wide shut. This is being said over and over by talking heads.

Active rigs:

	11/9/2016	11/09/2015	11/09/2014	11/09/2013	11/09/2012
Active Rigs	38	65	193	182	192

RBN Energy: US Northeast natural gas providers gear up for winter, takeaway expansions.

Northeast production growth, the primary driver of overall gains in U.S. natural gas output in recent years, has largely stalled in 2016. Rig counts in the Marcellus/Utica dropped to near six-year lows, and the region has been facing constraints—from takeaway capacity and in the past month or two from storage injection capacity. But market factors are again about to roil the Northeast: 1) winter heating demand is on its way, and 2) more takeaway capacity has come online in the past month and still more is coming before the year is up. Today, we review recent Northeast natural gas production trends using pipeline flow data from Genscape and assess factors that will impact regional production this winter.

Since 2010, by far the most significant growth in U.S. natural gas production has occurred in the Northeast, where the Marcellus/Utica shale plays in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio have proven to be among the most productive in the world. To put that into perspective, while production from the rest of the U.S. has declined by nearly 7 Bcf/d over the last five years, Northeast production has climbed at an astounding pace, from less than 5 Bcf/d in 2011 to a record 22.8 Bcf/d in February 2016. Since February, volumes have bounced around but overall growth has flattened. With winter now just around the corner and pipeline expansions coming online, it’s time to revisit what’s happened with Northeast production this year and consider the prospects for supply growth in the coming months.

*****************************

The Political Page

This may be the thing that irritates me most: the mainstream media says this nation has never been so divided.

Let's go to Hillary's fact-checker:  Between Election Day and Lincoln's inauguration, seven slave-holding Southern states declared their secession from the Union and formed the Confederacy. This later precipitated the Civil War that lasted until 1865.

Let's repeat that in case someone missed it: after Abraham Lincoln was elected president, "seven slave-holding Southern states decleared their secession from the Union and formed the Confederacy." And they did that before Abraham Lincoln even took the oath of office.

The election of 1860 is not ancient history. Folks, in 2016, still talk about the need for reparations for events that preceded the Civil War. 

PetroChina Expands Receiving Capacity At LNG Terminals -- November 8, 2016

As you read this story, remember four things:

• the US has a lot of natural gas
• the US is building a lot of LNG export terminals
• the US allows LNG exports
• China's appetite for LNG is growing

Data points from Reuters/Rigzone:

• PetroChina is one of the larger Chinese oil and gas firms
• PetroChina has three LNG receiving terminals
• it is adding new storage tanks for LNG at two of those terminals 
• one of the sites, Rudong: this is part of a second-phase expansion; will bring handling capacity up to 6.5 million tonnes/year; up from 3.5 million tonnes previously
• at the second site, Dalian: will double its receiving capacity there to 6 million tonnes/year
• PetroChina is raising its natural gas supply this winter by 7% year-over-year
• most of that increase is domestically produced; a "moderate" amount will be due to imports

Wind Energy In The US -- Estimates Through 2017 -- EIA -- November 8, 2016

Over at twitter, the EIA posted a graph to highlight the amount of wind energy that has been brought on line over the past decade here in the US and the amount projected through the end of 2017.

In 2012, the total capacity of US electricity generating plants was approximately 1,100 GW. 

 90 GW (wind) x 0.20 = 18 GW.

*******************************

NFL Ratings

Link here.  Last night's game the lowest week 9 MNF game since 2007. I watched the first half, then went to bed, and I'm a fairly involved professional football fan. I'm not sure what it was, why I didn't watch to the end. I know part of it was the announcers. Wow, were they boring. In fact, I mentioned this to my wife the other day: a lot of what keeps me watching an NFL game is the game-calling. If the announcers are good, I tend to stay. Madden was great, "back in the day." The SNF announcers are very good, probably my favorite right now. I enjoy Joe Buck.

***************************

Doctor Strange

Wow, I love the library, the movie, the internet, connecting of dots.

I have no clue if I am correct on any of this but it starts to fit. It will be my way of thinking about things and then modifying the "model" as I read more and "understand" more.

I asked my wife what she thought of the "philosophy" underlying or "behind" the movie, Doctor Strange. She said she gave it brief thought but nothing more; she watched the movie and enjoyed it for other reasons.

For me, of all things, seeing the movie I finally understand the concept of the demiurge.

Stan Lee will be 94 years old in December.

Law Of Big Numbers And Why I Love To Blog -- November 8, 2016

In a long and complicated note on October 31, 2016, I estimated that the Saudis were pulling about $7.1 billion out of their cash reserves every month to cover "payroll." (That's in addition to whatever positive cash flow they had on oil exports and refined petroleum exports.)

Today, John Kemp, Reuters analyst based in London, tweeted:

So, that's pretty cool. Confirmation that at current oil prices, Saudi is pulling about $7 billion out of cash reserves every month to cover its "payroll."  Obviously it will change month-over-month, but $7 billion/month seems about right when oil is in the upper 40's.

In the graph above, note that it was in October, 2014, that Saudi Arabia mentioned that it was going to maximize production, regardless of price, to maintain global market share.  Look how fast things changed: by the end of the next quarter, they were deep "into the orange."

********************************

Any Doubts That Saudi Arabia Is In Trouble?

Regular readers are aware of the number of big-dollar projects that Saudi Arabia has canceled in the past two years because of their $1 trillion mistake.

Now, over at The Saudi Gazette, the headline: "private sector dues to be cleared by December 31, 2016; signing of SR1 trillion mega projects halted."

The "private sector dues" has to be with all the domestic debt and IOUs the Saudi Arabian government owes its employees, contractors, and citizens.

But in addition, the "act" just signed will also "modify" $266 billion worth of "mega" projects.

Bakken 2.0: Twenty-Four (24) Permits Renewed; Seven New Permits

Regardless of how the presidential election turns out tonight/tomorrow/end of the week/whenever it is decided: at least in this election, Americans went into the polling booth with their eyes wide shut. We discussed that earlier. No one cannot say voters (including the dead and those who voted often) did not know for whom they were voting in this election. Good luck to all. My only hope: that my two granddaughters are "okay" with the outcome. They have followed the campaign intently. At their age, this was all "magic" for me. I hope it remains "magic" for them.

*******************************

Active rigs:

	11/8/2016	11/08/2015	11/08/2014	11/08/2013	11/08/2012
Active Rigs	38	64	193	182	189

No wells coming off the confidential list Wednesday; in fact no new wells coming off the confidential list until Saturday.

Seven new permits:

• Operators: BR (5), Petro-Hunt (2)
• Fields: Croff (McKenzie), Charlson (McKenzie)
• Comments: the BR permits are for a 5-well pad

Twenty-four permits renewed:

• CLR (10): four Hartford and four Dover permits, all on the same 8-well pad in Williams County; two Thorvald permits in Dunn County
• Oasis (5): five O M Erickson permits in Williams County
• EOG (3): three Van Hook permits in Mountrail County
• Hunt (2): a Nichols permit and a Palermo permit, both in Mountrail County
• NP Resources (2): two McDonald permits in Billings County
• Hess: one BW-Hedstrom permit in McKenzie County
• Petro-Hunt: one Sabrosky permit in Dunn County

Three permits canceled:

• all three were Triangle USA permits -- one Gullickson Trust and two J Garvin Jacobson permits, all in McKenzie County

Again, another day with no DUCs reported as being completed.

*****************************

A Note For Our Daughter

May and I saw the 3D Stan Lee movie today: Doctor Strange. Incredibly, incredibly good. Perhaps more on this later.

The previews, unfortunately for upcoming movies, were incredibly violent. For that reason, you really can't take the old granddaughters. I know they both want to see Doctor Strange and perhaps -- a big "perhaps" -- they could see it with you but have them come in after the movie has begun, after the previews are over.

The previews by the way help explain the record number of homicides in Chicago this year. But at least none of the actors are seen smoking cigarettes or doing things without their clothes on.