Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Thirteen New Permits; Twenty-four (24) Permits Renewed -- October 25, 2016

Active rigs.


10/25/201610/25/201510/25/201410/25/201310/25/2012
Active Rigs3568194182188

No wells come off confidential list Wednesday.

Thirteen (13) new permits:
  • Operators: CLR (10), Kraken Operating, LLC (3)
  • Fields: Pershing (McKenzie), Lone Tree Lake (Williams)
  • Comments: Kraken has been on the blog before:
See location of proposed site for the new 10-well CLR pad in Pershing oil field: link here. 

Twenty-four permits renewed:
  • XTO (8): eight Maddy Federal permits in McKenzie County
  • QEP (6): six Tipi permits in McKenzie County
  • CLR (4): four Bohmbach permits in McKenzie County
  • Hunt (4): two Trulson permits in Mountrail County; one Cook permit and one Halliday permit, both in Dunn County
  • WPX (2): two Wolf Chief permits in Dunn County
WPX canceled one permit: a Wolf Chief permit in Dunn County.

No DUCs reported as being completed.

WTI Back Toward $50 -- Not Good News For The Saudis -- October 25, 2016

Apple Watch: after hours -- shares steady, slightly green.
  • 3:05 p.m. CT -- gradually creeping up; earnings not announced yet
  • 3:09 p.m. CT -- someone must know something; just turned red; after-market trades slightly down from the close; buy on the rumor; sell on the news; closed at $118.25; big question, will shares go below $115 in after-market trading?[See below -- id did.] Now, right at $118 at 4:11 p.m.
  • 3:26 CT -- first significant movement since close of market -- and the direction? Up. But didn't last even a minute; back to red, just slightly. A lot of trades must be happening as we approach the 4:30 ET mark; yup, now it's green again at 4:27
  • 3:28 p.m. CT -- definitely green;  
  • 3:30 p.m. CT -- there we go -- up over $120! But immediately drops back.
  • 3:34 p.m. CT -- down over a dollar; someone must know; now under $117 (3:34)
  • 3:35 p.m. CT -- down to $116; will it go below $115?
  • Over at Twitter the numbers are out: EPS at $1.67 beats $1.66 forecast; revenue of $46.9 billion in line; guidance of $76 - $78 billion, above expected guidance of $75 billion; shares immediately jumped 2.5% but then fell back; $115.88 at 4.39 p.m. ET. 
  • 5:19 p.m. CT -- this is probably the low for the night: $114.90.
Saudi Arabia: tough OPEC equation with mounting "exemptions." -- Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg's analysis of the Iraq "exemption." Saudi has three choices:
  • carry a greater burden within the group;
  • cede market share to other producers (I'm not sure how that differs from the previous bullet); or, 
  • lose credibility by softening the terms of the deal.
In a worst-case scenario, Saudi Arabia will have to cut production by more than 1 million bbls/day, sending the kingdom's output to a two-year.

This is a disaster for Saudi Arabia. Even if they cut by more than 1 million bbls/day, there is no guarantee that the price of oil will rise enough to meet their budget needs. They could end up draining cash reserves even faster than they are now, which by the way, I cannot find the September numbers even though it is almost November. The most recent update, which included the August numbers, have been out there forever.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:


10/25/201610/25/201510/25/201410/25/201310/25/2012
Active Rigs3568194182188

RBN Energy: US producers are coming back, despite low prices.

Big story everywhere: from NPR to The Wall Street Journal -- as premiums jump 25% and insurers flee, administration extends sigh-up for Affordable (LOL) Care Act. I think everyone pretty much agrees this is the beginning of the end. Next iteration: HillaryCare. At some point, ZombieCare -- it will never, ever die.

Lots of business stories:
Other news.
Tesla: from Investopedia --
In an interview with the Washington Post, Fisher said Tesla had taken a basic platform and “added so many overly complicated features”, such as automated front doors, middle-row seats on power sliders etc. “All those things add up in a way that can bring the platform down,” he said. “The falcon-wing doors are kind of an accident waiting to happen,” Jake Fisher, Consumer Reports’ Director of Automotive Testing, said.
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Talk About A Market That Can't Get Any Traction

Apple is expected to announce 3Q16 earnings after the market closes. Apple had done well as of late after the Samsung implosion, or should we say, "Samsung explosion"? It is expected that Apple will announce first full-year revenue decline since 2001. The shares are still up despite that bit of negative news and on a day where the market is negative. It is barely up, about 35 cents on $118/share.

Late afternoon trading: Dow 30 down 43 points; WTI below $50 at $49.81
  • new highs - 62: BHI, BAX (a huge whoop), SandRidge Energy, 
  • new lows - 28

Monday, October 24, 2016

Tracking Russia's Northern Fleet; Memo To Self: Check On This Building In Seven Years -- October 24, 2016

Updates

October 25, 2016, 3:40 p.m Central Time: the flotilla is a few hours away from Gibralter; still along the southwest coast of Portugal.
 
Original Post
 
Interested in tracking Russian's Northern Fleet headed for Syria?
You can even watch the Russian flotilla by tracking the transponder signal from the Nikolay Chiker, a helpful little tug which travels with the malfunction-prone Admiral Kuznetsov in case she breaks down. On the morning of October 22, 2016, the tug was steaming southwestward out of the English Channel.
I can't make this stuff up. It really works. When you get to the linked site, track "Nikolay Chiker." It looks like it is off the coast of Portugal. Could be wrong. I'm new at this.

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A Big Story

Something tells me this is going to be a big story.

Ask yourself: "Leaning Tower of Pisa, 16 feet, over how many centuries?"

Ask yourself: "How often do you know your putting is off in a brand-new high-rise because the building is tilting?"

Something tells me this is going to be a big story.

If this were in the Enquirer, I would blow it off. But this is an AP story.
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Pamela Buttery noticed something peculiar six years ago while practicing golf putting in her 57th-floor apartment at the luxurious Millennium Tower. The ball kept veering to the same corner of her living room.
Those were the first signs for residents of the sleek, mirrored high-rise that something was wrong. 
The 58-story building has gained notoriety in recent weeks as the "leaning tower of San Francisco." But it's not just leaning. It's sinking, too. And engineers hired to assess the problem say it shows no immediate sign of stopping.
Completed seven years ago, the tower so far has sunk 16 inches into the soft soil and landfill of San Francisco's crowded financial district. But it's not sinking evenly, which has created a 2-inch tilt at the base - and a roughly 6-inch lean at the top.
The good news, the building was completed seven years ago, during the Obama administration, so I guess it can't be blamed on George W. Bush:
Several documents involving the downtown building were leaked in recent weeks, including exchanges between the city's Department of Building Inspection and Millennium Partners, the developer. They show both sides knew the building was sinking more than anticipated before it opened in late 2009, but neither made that information public.
In a February 2009 letter, a chief buildings inspector, Raymond Lui, wrote to the tower's engineering firm to express concerns about "larger than expected settlements." He asked what was being done to stop the sinking and if the building's structural safety could be affected. 
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And Then He Kissed Me, The Crystals

CLR's Sakakawea Federal Wells

Locator: 10010SAKAKAWEA.
Updates

December 28, 2020: production updated; #33536 that had been off line and inactive is now back on line and back to previous production;

September 2, 2019: see production profile of one of the Sakakawea wells here.

February 20, 2019: production data updated below.

December 23, 2016: updating the CLR Sakakawea Federal wells. They are all LOC as of December 23, 2016. They are sited in section 25-153-94. They are all in the 1280-acre drilling unit just to the east and north: 19/18-153-93. The 7-well pad will be middle Bakken wells. The 6-well pad will have three first bench wells, and three second bench wells in the Three Forks. 

  • 33094: MB 1280; 3,043, Sakakawea Federal 14-19H, t1/19; cum 502K 3/21; huge well; cum 541K 7/21; cumm 709K 1/24;
  • 33093: MB 1280; 1,791, t12/18; cum 328K 10/20; cum 365K 3/21; cum 388K 7/21; cum 417K 1/24;
  • 33092: MB 1280; 2,646, t12/18; cum 341K 10/20; cum 361K 3/21; cum 371K 7/21; cum 409K 1/24;
  • 33091: MB 1280; 3,029, t12/18; cum 345K 10/20; cum 370K 3/21; cum 384K 7/21; cum 434K 1/24;
  • 33090: MB 1280; 3,092, t1/19; cum 340K 10/20; cum 361K 3/21; cum 373K 7/21; cum 414K 1/24;
  • 33089: MB 1280; 1,098, CLR, Sakakawea Federal 4-19H, Elm Tree, t2/19; cum 315K 10/20;  cum 420K 1/224; cum 358K 7/21; cum 420K 1/24;
  • 33088: MB 1280; 1,939, t1/19; cum 283K 10/20; cum 323K 7/21; cum 363K 1/24;
  • 33536: Holstein Federal 16-25HSL; 2,221, t1/19; cum 243K 10/10; off line 2/20; remains off line 7/20; back on line, 8/20; cum 282K 7/21; cum 342K 1/24;

  • 33104: TF B2 1280; 2,313, Sakakawea Federal 13-19H2, t1/19; cum 346K 7/21; cum 482K 1/24;
  • 33103: TF B1 1280; 2,089, Sakakawea Federal 11-19H1, t1/19; cum 336K 7/21; cum 399K 1/24;
  • 33102: TF B2 1280; 1,713, Sakakawea Federal 9-19H2, t1/19; cum 283K 7/21; cumm 336K 1/24;
  • 33101: TF B1 1280; 2,400, CLR, Sakakawea Federal 7-1H1, Elm Tree, t1/19; cum 321K 7/21; cum 372K 1/24;
  • 33100: TF B2 1280; 1,402, CLR, Sakakawea Federal 5-19H2, Elm Tree, t3/19; cum 289K 7/21; cum 330K 1/24;
  • 33099: TF B1 1280; 1,450, CLR, Sakakawea Federal 3-19H1, Elm Tree, t2/19; cum 273K 7/21; cum 326K 1/24;
  • 33539: TF B2 1280; 1,610, CLR, Sakakawea Federal 1-19H2, Elm Tree, t2/19; cum 334K 3/21; cum 404K 1/24;
  • 33538, A/IA/1,415, CLR, Hendrickson Federal 14-25HSL, Elm Tree, t1/19; cum 189K 10/20; off line 5/20; remains off line 7/20; back on line 8/20; cum 349K 7/21; cum 278K 1/24;
  • 33537, 2,038, CLR, Holstein Federal 15-25H1, Elm Tree, t1/19; cum 332K 3/21; off line 4/20; remains off line 7/20; back on line 10/20; cum 358K 7/21; cum 427K 1/24;

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October 29, 2016: see more at this post. CLR wants to site 25 wells on an existing 2560-acre drilling unit. 

October 29, 2016: this is what the graphic looks like today with CLR's proposed 13-well Sakakawea Federal pad in Elm Tree oil field:


 
Original Post
 
I don't have the energy tonight to put a lot of "stuff" into this post, but I need to at least get this posted. Last week and today, on NDIC's daily activity report, CLR was "awarded" thirteen new permits, Sakakawea Federal permits.

The two screenshots below show the general area that these wells will be drilled. Again, I did this quickly, and there may be errors, but it's probably fairly accurate (I think the wells will be sited in a northwest to southeast configuration on the pad, will run west to east under the river. When I'm in the mood I might sort this out more precisely but for now that will do.)




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Unchained Melody, The Righteous Brothers

Bakken 2.0: Fourteen (14) New Permits; 34 Permits Renewed; 35 Active Rigs; 7 DUCs Completed -- October 24, 2016

I'm glad he lived long enough to see the Bakken.

The Night Has A Thousand Eyes, Bobby Vee

My [exact] memories of California, 1969. LOL.

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Just a few weeks ago when we were down to 31 active rigs in North Dakota, I asked if we might go below 30. Today, we are quickly back up to 35.

Active rigs:


10/24/201610/24/201510/24/201410/24/201310/24/2012
Active Rigs3568194180190

Wells coming off confidential list Tuesday:
32001, SI/NC, BR, CCU Zephyr 24-34 TFH, Corral Creek, no production data,
32279, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21G, Heart Butte, no production data,

Less than a week ago, I opined that we were in the early stages of Bakken 2.0. Today, fourteen (14) new permits:
  • Operator: CLR
    Fields: Elm Tree (McKenzie), Banks (McKenzie)
  • Comments: 
    • ten new permits in NESE 25-153-94 (Elm Tree)
    • four new permits in SENE 2-152-99 (Banks)
Less than a week ago, I opined that we were in the early stages of Bakken 2.0. Today, thirty-four (34) permits renewed:
  • EOG (10), ten Hawkeye permits in McKenzie County
  • HRC (8), three Fort Berthold permits in McKenzie County; two Helstad permits in Williams County, one Johnson permit in Williams County, one Sylte Mineral Trust permit in Williams County; one Borrud permit in Williams County;
  • Zavanna (6), four Galloway permits in Williams County, two George permits in Williams County
  • Enerplus (4), a Walleye, a Giraffe, a Hyena, and a Cheetah, all in Dunn County
  • Enduro (3), two NGMU and one NSCU permit, all in Bottineau County
  • Petro-Hunt, a USA permit in McKenzie County
  • Cornerstone, a Melby permit in Burke County 
  • XTO, a Nygaard Federal in Dunn County
Seven DUCs reported as completed, averaging about 2/day:
  • 29529, 1,177, Enerplus, Badger 150-94-04B-09H TF, Spotted Horn, t8/16; cum 17 after first 31 days;
  • 29531, 926, Enerplus, Mink 150-94-04B-09H TF, Spotted Horn, t8/16; cum 16K after first 18 days;
  • 29614, 1,864, XTO, Olive Mae 7-8-9HA, Van Hook, t10/16; absolutely no production;
  • 31311, 1,903, Hess, AN-Brenna-153-95-3130H-4, Sanish Pool, Antelope, t10/16; no production data,
  • 31312, 1,091, Hess, AN-Brenna-153-94-3130H-3, Sanish Pool, Antelope, t10/16; no production data,
  • 32325, 67 (no typo), Hess, EN-Freda-LW-154-94-2635H-1, Alkali Creek, t9/16; no production data,
  • 32603,  844, Hess, HA-Rolfsrud-152-96-1720H-9, Westberg, t9/16; no production data;
Is there another category for DUCs that are reported as completed but show absolutely no production data? 

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November 8, 2016

Devil or Angel, Bobby Vee