Wednesday, March 2, 2016

For Those Who Don't Want To Spend All That Money On Disneyland -- March 2, 2016

For folks who think they are getting screwed by Disney, they could buy a couple of heifers sired by sons of Final Answer, MCD Converter. For less than the cost of a total Disneyland package (air-fare from the Bakken; 4-day car rental in southern California; lodging; and 3-day Disneyland/California Adventure hopper for a family of four, five, or six), one could get the pair -- mother heiffer and calf: asking $2400/pair.

"Asking" suggests one might be able to bargain.  Suggestion: don't mention you are a Trump supporter during the negotiations.

The calves are 3/4 Angus.

Now, isn't this a lot more fun than listening to MSNBC going over the primary results from yesterday?

I could be wrong, but I bet this is the history of the Brown Ranch. There is at least one clue to suggest that is accurate. This newspaper story may be the same ranch. I didn't cross-check really well, but "purt near sure."

Purt Near, Randy Rieman
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19 months old and already an art critic:

"This looks out of place."

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I'll Have To Ask
As noted earlier, I did not watch the "Oscars" the other night; I did not hear Chris Rock's monologue or any other part of the his night on stage, but my wife did and she thought he was great. My wife's mother was Japanese and her dad was Hispanic. Not an ounce of white blood in her, although there are rumors that several generations ago, possibly a Russian/Siberian male might have inserted himself in her Japanese family, but that will never be known, I suppose. But I digress.

From the Los Angeles Times talking about Chris Rock's performance the other night:
Many observers were put off by a gag in which Rock introduced "accountants from the firm PricewaterhouseCoopers" who turned out to be Asian chidren -- a not-so-subtle play on stereotypes about Asian people's math abilities. But Rock took it a step further: "If anybody's upset about that joke, just tweet about it on your phone, which was also made by these kids."
Writing for Vulture, Dee Lockett called the joke "tone-deaf" and an "egregious oversight" in a ceremony in which race figured so prominently. The joke at the expense of another minority group under-represented in Hollywood reflected "the mistake of conflating #OscarsSoWhite with a black/white binary," said Daniel Fienberg of the Hollywood Reporter.
Wow, they need to take a deep breath, as the FBI Director Comey recently said.  I've heard so much worse in so many other public venues over the years. I'm sure even Chris Rock is wondering: if they are criticizing me for that, I need to come back next year and show them "how bad" I can really be.

I'll have to ask my wife. But I probably won't. I already know what she will say. "You're kidding, aren't you?"

I Thought The US Was Energy-Independent -- March 2, 2016

Tweeting now: Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson: "I don’t think we can look to the market's demand side to solve this quickly for us."

Tweeting now: Russia's energy minister says countries producing 73% of world’s oil have agreed to tentative production freeze deal.

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I thought the US imported about 5 million bopd, maybe a max of 6 million bopd. This graph shows crude oil imports of over 8,000,000 bopd which is, like 8 million bopd. I think I have seen most media outlets say the US imports 5 million bopd; this suggests otherwise. This graph doesn't even show a number solidly below 6.5 million bbls.

The average looks like about 7.5 million bbls. More interesting, the trend is .... UP.

EV Sales In February, 2016

From an earlier post:
Look at it this way. A study by Michael Greenstone and Thomas Covert of the University of Chicago and Professor Knittel concluded that at current battery prices, for an electric vehicle to be cheaper to run than a gas-power car, oil would have to cost $350 a barrel. 
Do automobile buyers understand that? Let's look at the February, 2016, EV sales. Remember: automobile sales hit new records this past month (February, 2016). I assume EV sales in February also participated. Let's look. First number, January, 2016; second number, February, 2016:
  • Chevrolet Volt: from 996 to 1,126 (increase)
  • Tesla Model S: from 850 to 1,550 (delivered)(increase)
  • Nissan Leaf: 755 to 930 (increase)
  • Tesla Model X: 370 to 400 (delivered)(increase)
  • Chevrolet Spark: 139 to 216 (increase)
Numbers for all models not yet reported, but right now:
  • Total EV sales (some hybrids): 6,291 to 5,392 (decrease -- but as noted several companies still need to report, including Ford (probably about 1,200); Volvo (about 300).
Mercedes appears to be the outlier showing mixed results, but decreased sales of the Mercedes B250e.

Rounding To Nearest Whole Number, Solar Energy Still Provides Less Than 1% Of US Energy Production -- Obama Administration Data (EIA) For 2015; 44% Of Readers Not Paying Attention -- NY Times

0.0096702 = 0.967% = 1% when rounded to first whole number.

I can no longer state that solar energy rounds to 0% when rounded to first whole number.


Forecast for 2016, new energy:
  • solar: 9.5 gigawatts
  • natural gas: 8
  • wind: 6.8
  • nuclear: 1.1
That will put solar at 1.2% at the end of this year (2016) if the forecasts hold.  

Wind will be at 4.5% at the end of this year (2016) if the forecasts hold.

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Let's See How This Move To Counter CO2 Emissions Is Working Out
Case Study: British Columbia, Canada

Like the good folks in Minnesota, the Canadians are not averse to increased taxes.

Read the New York Times article on the British Columbia experience.
In 2008, the British Columbia Liberal Party, which confoundingly leans right, introduced a tax on the carbon emissions of businesses and families, cars and trucks, factories and homes across the province. The party stuck to the tax even as the left-leaning New Democratic Party challenged it in provincial elections the next year under the slogan Axe the Tax. The conservatives won soundly at the polls.
Their experience shows that cutting carbon emissions enough to make a difference in preventing global warming remains a difficult challenge. But the most important takeaway for American skeptics is that the policy basically worked as advertised.
British Columbia’s economy did not collapse. In fact, the provincial economy grew faster than its neighbors’ even as its greenhouse gas emissions declined.
So, there you have it. It worked as advertised. (Not quite; the government reneged on part of the deal; see below.)

Most folks won't read farther than that. There are things to do. Soccer games to get to. Primary results to check. Dry cleaning to pick up. Check Facebook. But this is an article one "can't not" complete without getting the full story.

First, the carbon tax: it passed only after promising huge cuts in corporate and personal income taxes. Of course, that didn't last long. The provincial government went back and raised the corporate income tax after they got the carbon tax passed. Bait and switch.

More:
With few exceptions, British Columbia’s tax is the steepest and broadest in existence. While that sets British Columbia apart as a leader on the cutting edge, it is also part of its problem. For the policy to work best, it needs the rest of the world to catch up.
"It is also part of its problem"?
Local leaders now recognize that they probably have to do more. Carbon emissions started rising again after the province froze the tax at 30 Canadian dollars in 2012. An advisory panel to the Ministry of the Environment recently laid out the problem: British Columbia is missing its goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by a third from 2007 to 2020. On its current path, the province will also miss its target of an 80 percent reduction by 2050.
"They probably have more to do." Oh-oh: taxes are going to be raised again. We're going to need to put in a connecting highway from Victoria to I-98. 

Buried deep in the article, this:
This is not entirely British Columbia’s fault.
True, the tax might have been too low. Spending some of the money on green initiatives might have curbed emissions faster. But its experiment has battled a harsh headwind: a collapse in the prices of oil and gasoline.
Look at it this way. A study by Michael Greenstone and Thomas Covert of the University of Chicago and Professor Knittel concluded that at current battery prices, for an electric vehicle to be cheaper to run than a gas-power car, oil would have to cost $350 a barrel.
Last year, it averaged $50. To make up the difference would require a carbon tax of $700 a ton of carbon dioxide.
"The tax might have been too low." LOL.

"Last year, [oil] averaged $50." Let's be honest. The price of oil is even lower this year and unlikely to increase much, if any, by the end of the year. It could actually drop.

Okay, this would require a tax of $700 / ton of carbon dioxide. What was the tax on CO2 that the BC's agreed to?  $30/ton.
The tax, which rose from 10 Canadian dollars per ton of carbon dioxide in 2008 to 30 dollars by 2012, the equivalent of about $22.20 in current United States dollars, reduced emissions by 5 to 15 percent. 
So, the voters in BC are going to be told: "Thank you. The $10 tax worked and the $30 dollar tax worked even better. But now we need to get to $750. Yes, the decimal is in the right spot. But you will feel good. We will drop corporate income tax to 0%."

Remember: this article is written by pro-green energy and posted in the second most liberal large national newspaper. 

But this still amazes me:

The carbon tax would  have to go from $30 to $700 on a ton of CO2.

But look at the EV data. Oil would have to get to $350/bbl for an EV to pay for itself. 

So, let's see how the poll worked out in which we asked would you buy an EV to save money for for other reasons?
  • to save money: 44%
  • for the "feel" of an EV: 56%
Forty-four percent of readers are not paying attention.

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British Columbia Does Its Part To Save The Earth;
South Africa ... Not So Much

For South Africa:
  • 72% of their energy consumption came from coal
  • 22% of their energy consumption came from oil
  • nothing else mattered 
Whatever British Columbia is doing, it is but a drop in the bucket compared to what is going on in South Africa, India, and China, just to name a few.

Wow, Look At The Jump In US Crude Oil Inventories -- Wednesday, March 2, 2016

US private sector adds 214,000 jobs in February -- ADP. Average forecast: 190,000.

Remember the "magic numbers" generally accepted prior to the Obama administration:
The Magic Numbers
First time claims, unemployment benefits: 400,000 (> 400,000: economic stagnation)
New jobs: 200,000 (< 200,000 new jobs: economic stagnation)
Oil below $37 as US inventory rise counters output freeze plan -- Reuters.
U.S. crude inventories jumped by 9.9 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute (API) said on Tuesday, much more than the 3.6-million-barrel increase analysts had forecast.
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The Supreme Court rules against Vermont health-care data law. Court's 6 -2 ruling could affect initiatives in up to 18 states. And the vote was overwhelming.
The Supreme Court on Tuesday quashed state efforts to gather health-care data from insurance plans, ruling that such reporting requirements run afoul of federal laws regulating employee benefits.
The case came from Vermont, where a 2005 law mandates that larger health insurance plans report “information relating to heath care costs, prices, quality, utilization or resources required” to a state database.
Boston-based Liberty Mutual Insurance Co. objected, contending the law conflicts with the federal Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974, which pre-empts state laws that “relate to any employee benefit plan.”
Liberty Mutual sued in its capacity as a self-insured employer with workers based in Vermont. Blue Cross Blue Shield of Massachusetts Inc. administers the plan for Liberty Mutual, which has about 140 employees in Vermont and tens of thousands nationwide. Companies sometimes object to state rules, which can vary across the country, when federal laws also apply.
The Supreme Court by a 6-2 vote agreed with Liberty Mutual. Another 17 states have similar database initiatives.
Voting against: Justice Kennedy and Justice Breyer. 
Giving no ground in high-court nominee talks. After meeting with President Obama -- it must have been a short meeting -- probably between the 9th green and the 10th tee -- Senate leaders held firm: no vote on Supreme Court nominee before January 21, 2017. The fact that the Court could come together on the healthcare issue (see previous story) validates those who opine that the Court can continue to function without a 9th justice.
  
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The Cool Page

McDonald's Turns Its Box Into Virtual Reality Headset: McDonald's in Sweden has redesigned its iconic red and yellow cardboard boxes to transform into virtual reality headsets.  The device, which diners can get with their burger and fries later this week, is based on the same design as Alphabet Inc.’s Google Cardboard model that uses the smartphone as a screen.

Lego profit rises 31% but Mattel remains King of Toy market. Mattel retains top spot in toy industry despite Lego's double-digit revenue and profit growth.
The strong performance wasn’t enough to overtake Barbie maker Mattel in the race for the No. 1 spot in the global toy industry. Translated into U.S. dollars, Lego’s 2015 sales totaled $5.2 billion in 2015, while Mattel reported revenue of $5.7 billion.
Mattel's 2015 revenue fell 5% from the previous year, and the company posted a 26% decline in its net profit to $369.4 million. The U.S. company has struggled with a strong dollar, falling Barbie sales and a lack of new products.
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The Not-So-Cool Page

SunEdison court win is eclipsed, print edition, WSJ, page C12, March 2, 2016: a favorable legal ruling last week looked like a new dawn for beleaguered SunEdison. A clearer reading of the deciison, plus an entirely new problem, threatens to turn the lights out for good.... even if the loan is made, this matters to TerraForm. But it is an existential issue for SunEdison. Without payments from its yieldco, the company probably faces bankruptcy.