Monday, February 8, 2016

Monday's News -- February 8, 2016; Ford To Double Capacity In Mexico -- The 800-Pound Gorilla: ObamaCare; "Massive" Wind Farm Proposed For North Dakota By OOS Company

One can vote on Super Bowl ads here.

The Mideast just keeps getting messier. Turkey's hostility to one of America's most effective allies -- the Kurds -- simply undermines the effort to take out ISIS.

This Indian should have been buying lottery tickets.

Speaking of India, the country's telecom regulator bans Facebook's free basic service. Regulator says everyone needs to pay for internet; can't be given away for free.

Speaking of India, again, the country has surpassed China for bragging rights as the "growth company." India's economy expanded 7.3% last quarter. The country uses a lot of coal. A lot.

Wow, that took awhile: Volkswagen's "quality" - control chief resigns. I guess someone is using the phrase "quality control" loosely.

The Mideast migrants keep flowing into Europe. The Greek government want to build migrant camps on the islands; Greek people say "ouchí."

I disagree completely. The Super Bowl review at TWSJ:
Truth: outside of that Denver defense, it wasn’t an especially well-played game. A lot of it was snoozy. There were punts. And some more punts. And a few more punts (15 in total, tied for second-most in Super Bowl history) There were turnovers consequential and turnovers inconsequential. A Carolina field-goal attempt that thud-DONNKKKED off the upright. There were moments it felt like less like a Super Bowl and more like a Dolphins-Browns game. A Dolphins-Browns preseason game.
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Ford-Mexico

From a couple of days ago: Ford to more than double Mexico production capacity in 2018. Auto maker will build new plant in Mexico, expand existing factory. Better Mexico, than China.
Ford Motor Co. will build a new assembly plant in Mexico and sharply increase factory output from that country, representing the latest shift of investment abroad by a Detroit auto maker following the signing of a costly new labor deal.
The No. 2 light-vehicle seller in the U.S. plans to add 500,000 units of annual Mexican capacity starting in 2018, more than double what it built in 2015, according to people briefed on the plan. The plan mirrors General Motors Co. ’s $5 billion investment to double Mexican capacity by 2018.
Ford will build a new assembly complex in San Luis Potosí, and expand an existing factory near Mexico City. The moves will make room for several models, including a yet-to-be-disclosed hybrid vehicle that is described as a Toyota “Prius fighter,” and will allow Ford to focus its U.S. factories on higher-profit trucks and sport-utility vehicles.
Ford last year built 433,000 vehicles in Mexico, or 14% of its North American production.
Costs for the project likely will exceed $1 billion, people familiar with the details said, with factory construction beginning later this year. It follows a $2.5 billion investment Ford announced last spring to build an engine and a transmission plant in Mexico.
Why the interest in Mexico? Gee, I wonder.
Detroit auto makers have long built cars and trucks in Mexico, but the country is looking more attractive following a new labor deal struck in November with the United Auto Workers that raises wages for U.S. factory workers.
Labor rates in Mexico are roughly one-fifth of those earned by unionized workers in the U.S., a gap that is only expected to widen as UAW wages approach nearly $30 an hour in coming years, representing as much as a $10 increase for some newer hires.
But again, the article does not mention the other much, much bigger expense: ObamaCare.

It looks like this is the business plan: low-margin cars to be built overseas; high-margin SUVs and trucks to be built in existing US factories. 

Energy is inexpensive in the US; will get a bit more expensive as cost of intermittent energy impacts rates. But energy will become less expensive in Mexico with all that natural gas the US is shipping to Mexico. Lower labor costs, lower energy costs.

Speaking of rising costs of electricity due to the cost of intermittent energy: in a state which has some of the lowest utility rates in the nation, there is an opportunity to raise rates. According to the Bowman County Pioneer, a "massive" wind farm is proposed for the county, data points:
  • again, an out-of-state developer who can't get wind energy projects in his own backyard
  • a Virginia energy company: Apex Clean Energy, Charlottesville, VA
  • from south of Rhame to US Highway 85
  • "the farm would effectively cover the entire county" -- one resident
  • "at least" 100 turbines
  •  25,000 to 30,000 acres
  • 200 to 300 MW annually
  • by comparison: the MDU wind farm in the same area: 13 turbines
As usual, some numbers rounded, and arithmetic errors are common. 

The cost was not in the article, unless I missed it, which is possible. At $1.5 million / MW, it would be a 300 x $1.5 million project -- a half-billion dollar project.

Bowman County: 1,167 square miles x 640 acres = 750,000 acres.

30,000 acres = 50 sections; generally 36 sections in most townships in North Dakota.

Well, it would give me something to look at when I drive up from Texas back to the Bakken.

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Man-Camp Focus: Time To Move On

Restaurant and real estate sectors are the ones to watch.

Huge competition among Menards, Home of Economy, Wal-Mart.

Everything else will take care of itself.

The man-camp story is a good-news story -- except for the man-camp operators. Don't feel bad for the man camps. They advertised themselves as "temporary." Oil companies say they need the man-camps because their workers are mobile, back and forth from the south to North Dakota. The roughnecks are flexible, smart, adaptable. They're as good as US Marines and US Army finding places to stay when deployed. Instead of man-camps, they will move into town. Man-cap operators might be smart to invest in really, really cheap motels and apartment complexes, as those owners look to exit. From The StarTribune:
North Dakota’s unemployment rate is still an enviable 2.7 percent, and the jobless rate is even lower here in Williams County — 2.2 percent, up a percentage point from a year ago.
Camps like the Bear Paw Lodge or Black Gold reflected the allure and growing pains of an oil rush that overwhelmed the housing supply and infrastructure to the point that people camped in parking lots and homes rented for big-city prices — $3,000 a month or more. Many camps had their own security and strict rules against alcohol and drugs, as well as maids, fitness centers, high-thread-count sheets and 24-hour meal service.
But now, about 50 miles from here, Capital Lodge in Tioga, built for 2,000 workers, is a fenced-off ghost town. About 130 miles away in Dickinson, a 600-bed camp had dwindled to 30 guests when its owners shut it down for the winter. In Williston, where the population soared from 12,000 to more than 40,000 at the height of the drilling frenzy, local leaders ordered the remaining man camps to close by the summer.
In the half-empty cafeteria of one camp operated by Target Logistics just north of Williston, electrical workers and pipe specialists one recent morning were starting and ending their 12-hour shifts over a breakfast of eggs, sausage and coffee as thick and black as crude oil. They talked about how many drilling rigs were operating (46 across the state, compared with 190 two years ago), their falling overtime pay and friends who had gone elsewhere for work.
The New York Times has pretty much the same story, "built up by oil boom, North Dakota now has an emptier feeling." Again, the writers/editors are fascinated by "man-camps."
The “man camps” sprang up from the prairie, rows of trailers and modular steel boxes that housed thousands of workers chasing their fortunes in North Dakota’s oil fields. But these days, the man camps are missing something: men.
Roughly eight years ago, at the peak of the last recession, oil drilling began to transform these remote corners of the plains into an economic beacon, attracting billions of dollars in new investments and thousands of workers in search of good-paying jobs and an escape from America’s economic pain. But now, as oil prices have skidded to $30 a barrel, new drilling has dried up here, and the flood of wealth and workers is ebbing.

Monday, February 9, 2016 -- A Great Game, Yesterday

Active rigs:


2/8/201602/08/201502/08/201402/08/201302/08/2012
Active Rigs42136192185202

RBN Energy: storage capacity at Cushing (archived).
The Mid-Continent trading and storage hub at Cushing, OK is the nation’s largest commercial crude tank farm – with an estimated 73 MMBbl of working storage capacity according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The latest weekly EIA Petroleum Supply report (January 29, 2016) indicated inventory levels at Cushing just over 64 million barrels – 24 thousand barrels below the all-time high set two weeks previously. That is only 88% of working capacity by some calculations that indicate there is still room in the tanks for more crude. Yet market sources report that some storage operators are turning away incoming barrels. Today we examine what may be happening.
We have previously discussed inventory levels at Cushing in the context of the big run up in crude stocks during 2011 and 2012 to a then record of 52 MMBbl in January 2013.
Those soaring stocks resulted from a build-up of “stranded” crude in the Midwest from surging shale production, mostly from North Dakota, that was surplus to regional refinery needs and could not reach Gulf Coast refineries due to a lack of pipeline capacity south from Cushing. That stockpile ran down during 2013 and 2014 as new pipeline capacity opened up to the Gulf Coast – bottoming out at 18 MMBbl in July 2014 (according to EIA).  In October 2014 Cushing inventories started climbing again - this time in response to an oversupplied market with falling crude prices creating a “contango” incentive to store crude.
In a contango market, prices for future delivery are higher than for delivery today – providing a financial incentive to store crude and sell it for a higher price later.
A U.S. refining frenzy in response to high margins last summer brought crude stocks down between April and October 2015 but they have recovered since to hit an all time high on January 15, 2016 at 64.2 MMBbl. The record crude inventory levels are not just at Cushing. The EIA reported that total U.S. crude commercial inventories surpassed 500 MMBbl for the first time ever on January 29, 2016, with over half that number stored in the Gulf Coast region (253 MMBbl).
These crude inventory levels are high enough that questions are being raised about how much more the tanks can hold. This is particularly the case at Cushing – where by one calculation – crude inventory is at 88% of working capacity – just 9 MMBbl below capacity.  What follows is our interpretation of how full the tanks at Cushing could be.
I didn't see all the Super Bowl ads, but I saw most of them. T-Mobile and Steve Harvey might have been the #1, certainly in the top five:

T-Mobile - Steve Harvey

And, now for something a little different:

Le Petit Chef

Sunday, February 7, 2016

A Bit Of Insight Into Puerto Rico's $72 Billion Debt Problem -- The New York Times -- February 7, 2016

When stories like this come out, it's going to be hard for US senators to approve a bailout for Puerto Rico. The New York Times is reporting:
And that is the catch. What most likely would be the biggest recurring expense for these attractions — electricity — costs Aguadilla nothing. It has been provided free for years by the power authority, known as Prepa.
In fact, the power authority has been giving free power to all 78 of Puerto Rico’s municipalities, to many of its government-owned enterprises, even to some for-profit businesses — although not to its citizens. It has done so for decades, even as it has sunk deeper and deeper in debt, borrowing billions just to stay afloat.
Now, however, the island’s government is running out of cash, facing a total debt of $72 billion and already defaulting on some bonds — and an effort is underway to limit the free electricity, which is estimated to cost the power authority hundreds of millions of dollars.
But like many financial arrangements on the island, the free electricity is so tightly woven into the fabric of society that unwinding it would have vast ramifications and, some say, only worsen the plight of the people who live here.
And who thought this up?
The free power dates from 1941, when the utility was established by Rexford Tugwell, a member of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s brain trust and the last American governor of Puerto Rico to be appointed by the president of the United States.
He contended that for electricity to benefit the people, it had to be owned by the people, and he created Prepa by nationalizing the handful of private electric companies then on the island.
Coincidentally I'm reading a biography of Ayn Rand. She would have predicted this when she wrote The Fountainhead back in 1942. She knew Roosevelt was a disaster waiting to happen. 

Third Day In The Bakken -- February 7, 2016

Most of the day was spent with Dad. He said it was one of the best days he's had. I picked him up about 11:00 and went out for lunch, again, the same spot he goes every time we go out together, the Cash Wise deli (in Williston, of course).

It is amazing how busy Cash Wise is. The parking lot was packed and the checkout lines were quite long. And there are plenty of grocery shopping options in Williston: Wal-Mart, Albertson's, as well as all the convenience stores in addition to Cash Wish.

We visited a number of stores. I found a perfect Christmas gift at Home of Economy for my son-in-law. I bought the item for myself -- I've been looking at it for the past several years -- but after walking out of the store I thought he might enjoy it as much as I would. I can't say what it is in case he reads the blog (which I seriously doubt; he has more sense than that and no interest in the Bakken).

Hopefully I won't forget where I put it between now and next December; maybe I'll send it to him for a birthday present.

Then off to Menards. I've driven by it several times since it opened a couple of years ago, but never visited assuming it was household furnishings only. Wow, was I wrong. It's an incredible store. I was quite amazed. I gave Menards a bit of grief for waiting so long to come to Williston, but that's water under the bridge. They more than made up for it with this incredible store. I can only imagine the draw from eastern Montana and southern Canada.

Then we drove out to the new high school which is scheduled to open this fall, 2016. It certainly has come a long way; I wonder if the entire shell might be complete and they are able to get a lot of inside work done this winter. I don't know; I hope it's on schedule so they can open as originally planned, but whether they do or not, it appears it will be worth the wait. Again, an incredible building. I was going to take a photograph but the sun was such it would have been impossible to get a good photograph. I will try Monday or Tuesday.

We drove through all the new housing developments. It's impossible to say how everything is working out but nothing looks "dead" or abandoned. Lots of vehicles in front of apartment buildings, duplexes, single-unit homes.

By 5:00 p.m it was time for dinner again. And again, Cash Wise. After dinner back to his room to watch the first half of the Big Game. At half-time I had planned to leave to check e-mail, blog, etc., and so I'm at the Daily Addiction on Main Street. Hopefully the game will be over by 9:00 p.m. when they close. Denver has really surprised me: 13 - 7 well into the 3rd quarter, and now with another good run, another good series going down the field. It's Denver's game to lose. I think playing (and beating) the Patriots was huge for the Broncos.

Tomorrow I will be with dad again. He is always eager for Mondays to come; weekends are too long for him. 

Overall, I'm getting the same overall impression that Dustin Monke is reporting in Dickinson. 
Now, instead of eyeing expansion and trying to track uncharted growth, most businesses and cities are planning for modesty and hoping they can plan for the possibility of both a calm and busy future, should oil prices and activity suddenly rebound.
Major projects and commercial development in Dickinson have all but come to a halt as the hub city begins paying off deficits created by infrastructure and building projects that helped alleviate the booming, oil-driven economy.
What remains of Dickinson’s once hurried building sector is on the public side, where the Dickinson Middle School building is taking shape and water treatment facilities are under construction. New commercial developments — such as stores and restaurants — while still opening, aren’t coming as fast as they were the past two years.
However, Dickinson’s economy isn’t faltering — even in the face of low oil prices and uncertain farm commodities and livestock prices.
I would assume we are near the bottom of the current cycle. Whether it's a long 'U" or a short "U" recovery is impossible to say. But the tea leaves certainly don't suggest a "V" recovery. I assume there are not many unemployed in Williston; winters always seem to sort that out. I suppose there could be a fair number of folks on the edge who have children in school and will decide at the end of the school year what to do. Folks that have jobs now are unlikely to leave if they don't have a job waiting for them someplace else.

The big, big plus for families on the cusp: the school system is as good as any in the country, and much, much better than most. It may sound corny, but the community of faith, churches, etc., is also very, very strong. A lot of families on the cusp will get a lot of support from others, and many will make ends meet by getting a second or third job. By the way, my Dad asked a 20-something -- maybe eighteen or nineteen years old -- what she was getting paid as a cashier at one of the big box stores we visited. It was $14/hour.

Real estate and restaurants will be the sectors to watch.

Among the big box stores, the big three competing with each other: Home of Economy, Menards, and Wal-Mart. They all have their weaknesses and strengths. I will leave it at that, for now.

Oh, the big story I forgot to mention. This may have been the highlight of the day. While walking to our table at Cash Wise, I passed two middle-aged men; they appeared to be somewhat Latino but their language seemed more Slavic. They were a bit older than middle-aged; a bit out of place in a young person's oil patch world, but they were both field workers one could tell. The one had a clam-shell phone on the table; the other was showing off pictures of his grandchild (looked to be six months old) on his iPhone. He appeared as proud as could be.

Photographs Worth A Thousand Words -- February 7, 2016

From The Los Angeles Times today, a photograph of the oil patch in California:


For a comparable photo of the Bakken, go go this link: http://www.vernwhittenphotography.net/wes8914/, and at the link skip to photograph #21 of 38 photographs in that set.

The two photographs, side-by-side, might be the best example to "describe" the difference between vertical wells in conventional oil fields, and horizontal fields in tight plays, like the Bakken.