Another Bakken Man Camp To Close -- February 27, 2015; A Shout-Out To Firestone

Bakken.com is reporting:

Officials in Williston are standing by their previous decision and forcing a 400-bed man camp to close because of city code violations.

Black Gold Lodge petitioned the city to reverse a January 13 decision to shut down the facility Tuesday evening. City commissioners moved to take no action, allowing their previous vote to stand.

Black Gold came under city limits in 2013 through a land annexation. The city requires sprinkler systems and commissioners had given Black Gold until Dec. 31, 2014, to install one, but the company says contractor issues stalled the installation.

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A Shoutout To Firestone

I prefer to take my car to Firestone for servicing. I started going to Firestone about ten years ago while living in San Antonio. I'm not sure why I started: I think the Chrysler dealer that I had been going to moved to a new location much farther away from where I lived. It seems dealers are a bit farther out of town; Firestone seems to be nearer residential areas. Maybe, maybe not. Whatever.

I always buy my tires at Firestone. The tires on our 2007 Chrysler minivan have less than 20,000 miles on them. Yesterday I noted that the rear passenger tire looked slightly low -- I thought I might be imagining things, or that it might be due to the colder weather we've been having, but I didn't need any surprises on all the soccer and swimming event trips we take four days out of seven.

I drove up to Firestone in Grapevine; they were busy, but not more than one would necessarily expect. Talk about friendly. I expected to wait about 90 minutes to be seen (they said it would be an hour to an hour and a half wait) but I saw them move the car in about 15 minutes (big surprise) and about 20 minutes later was told that yes, there was a nail in the side of the tire, which meant it had to be replaced.

I'm not even sure Chris asked; he simply told me they put on a brand new tire and the total cost would be $14.

I had forgotten I had bought "Road Hazard Insurance" when I bought the tires -- normally I don't buy this kind of insurance, but for some reason I did that time (and will do so in the future, with all the construction in the area). The new tire automatically came with road hazard insurance, although I may have misheard him because the total bill was $23 or something like that -- I wasn't quite sure what the extra $9 was for but the paperwork looked fine and for $23, a brand new tire, tire rotation, and road hazard insurance I wasn't going to ask. [I also bought "free tire rotation for life" when I bought these original times some years ago.]

I remember years ago when we were living in Turkey we had a brand new Saab 900 which we had bought while stationed with the USAF in Germany, and brought it with us to Turkey. To pass Turkish inspection (required by USAF and Turkey) we had to get a new exhaust pipe. Knowing that original parts sent in from Germany would cost $300 to $400 I gave that amount of cash to my wife and told her to take the car "downtown" to have the exhaust pipe replaced.

When she returned, she said it cost $5.00.

It turns out that the Turks (who repair stuff whenever they can just enough to pass inspections, apparently) simply patched the small hole in the exhaust pipe. My wife was told the problem was fixed (something lost in translation) and would cost $10. My wife, known to have fairly expressive facial reactions (perhaps it's a Hispanic thing; certainly not her Japanese heritage) appeared shocked, saying, "What, $10?" She expected at least $250 based on what I had told here.

The Turkish mechanic, apparently taken aback by my wife's reaction, in best English he could muster, "For you abla, $5 and we give free calendar."

My wife gave me the calendar and kept the $400 in cash I had given her.

["Abla" in Turkish: 1. older sister. 2. ma´am (a respectful term of address for a woman). poet. water.]

By the way, that exhaust pipe never needed to be replaced or repaired again in all the years we owned that car. I forget when/where we sold that Saab but I believe I sold it before we left Turkey. I didn't want all the hassle of customs, etc.

Vantage Ethane Pipeline -- Carrying Ethane From Tiogo To Alberta To Expand -- February 27, 2015

In the original report on this pipeline, the company said it could increase capacity to 60,000 bpd. The company has announced it will do the expansion, and will actually exceed the original 60,000 bpd -- bringing capacity up to 68,000 bpd. A big deal considering the concerns about the Bakken and the slump in oil prices.

Bakken.com is reporting:

Pembina Pipeline Corp. has announced plans to expand the Vantage pipeline system which would link Bakken’s growing supply of ethane with the petrochemical market in Alberta.

The recently constructed high-vapor-pressure Vantage pipeline runs from a gas processing plant in Tioga, North Dakota, and extends 430 miles to Empress, Alberta. From there it connects to the Alberta Ethane Gathering System pipeline. The $85 million expansion will increase the mainline capacity from 40,000 barrels per day (bpd) to roughly 68,000 bpd. The additions will include new pump stations and a new 50-mile 8-inch gathering line.

Active Rigs Down To 120 -- February 27, 2015; Williston Wire Update

Reporting today:

• NRG, forecast 52 cents (but Zacks average was 93 cents/share); misses (21cents) but swings to profit; misses forecast; shares up; story here;
• Goodrich Petroleum (GDP), forecast a lost of 45 cents; misses by 2 cents; story here;

Active rigs:

	2/27/2015	02/27/2014	02/27/2013	02/27/2012	02/27/2011
Active Rigs	120	194	181	205	169

From the Williston Wire (headlines only; easy to subscribe to the Williston Wire):

• Developers to present plans on new airport
• Mississippi BBQ to open in Williston, located inside the Sitting Bull Auction Stockyards
• McKenzie County School District has final cost for new high school: $52.3 million
• Border States Electric expands to Watford City; distribution center at Hunter's Run
• More than 340,000 people have visited the Williston Rec Center since it opened less than a year aog (April, 2014); $76 million facility
• Williston Area Recreation Center (ARC) to hos swim meet; first time hosting; EJ Hagan Natatorium
• Virgil Hill's final box match, tomorrow, Saturday, in Bismarck

The Spin Continues -- 4Q14 GDP Revised Downward -- February 27, 2015

Related: Job Watch.

"Job Watch" has consistently suggested that the economy is not doing as well as pundits suggest. Today we get a bit of that confirmation: GDP for 4Q14 revised sharply down, from 2.6% to 2.2%.

In a sense that's not a big deal, I suppose, in some folks' minds, but some pundits would have rounded the 2.6% to 3%, and now it's been revised to 2.2%, which for all practical purposes is 2%. There's a big difference between 2% and 3% for folks who follow this stuff.

But I love the spin (in bold below):

Reuters is reporting:

U.S. economic growth braked more sharply than initially thought in the fourth quarter amid a slow pace of stock accumulation by businesses and a wider trade deficit, but the underlying fundamentals remained solid.

Gross domestic product expanded at a 2.2 percent annual pace, revised down from the 2.6 percent pace estimated last month, the Commerce Department said on Friday. The economy grew at a 5 percent rate in the third quarter.

I believe there is one more opportunity for another revision. I could be wrong, but I think the final revision is next month. 

Did Imported LNG And Oil "Save" New England This Winter -- RBN Energy -- February 27, 2015

Related tag: natural gas fill rate.

Related: did imported LNG and oil save New England this year?

RBN Energy: distillate fundamentals in New England.

Freezing weather along the Atlantic Coast has disrupted refinery operations threatening supplies of refined products – in particular distillates – in an already tightly balanced market. The resultant spike in heating oil prices has encouraged European traders to ship cargoes to New York – a reversal of flow patterns seen in recent years. Today we look at northeast distillate fundamentals and explain why European imports are headed across the pond.

The balance between supply and demand for distillates – mostly ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) for road use and heating oil for residential and commercial heating - is traditionally tight in the northeast. We first described the challenges of distillate supply in this market in the context of growing refinery closures back in 2012. Since then, access to cheaper crude transported from North Dakota and (to a lesser degree) from Canada, has rejuvenated the region’s refining industry. Distillate supply is still problematic however and – as we shall see- supply interruptions like those caused by freezing cold weather – can prompt unusual trade patterns.

According to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) the 9 operating refineries in Petroleum Administration District for Defense (PADD) 1 – representing the northeast and Atlantic Seaboard from Maine to Florida - have 1.3 MMb/d of crude processing capacity and produce about 350 Mb/d of distillates. Distillate demand in the region averages more than 3 times that local refinery output at 1.2 MMb/d with the largest consumption being on-road diesel (60%) and heating oil (25%).