Monday, Part 2, -- February 9, 2015; Tesla Hires More Employees From Apple Than Any Other Company

Wow, that makes me feel better -- the market is down 100 points but according to Yahoo!Finance the market is reacting to Greece's insanity, not to the fact that Germany and France are on the brink of war with Russia over the Ukraine. Yes, that's a relief. Drudge, last night, certainly implied we were on the brink of war.

I think I saw somewhere that oil was rising again. I mentioned to someone over the weekend, oil prices can rise just as fast as they fell -- and sometimes faster.

Some interesting headlines -- WARNING! WARNING! SPOILER ALERT! -- This is NOT an investment site. See disclaimer -- as I was saying, there are some interesting headlines coming out of Apple. For starters:

• Apple may release a faster new MacBook Air this month
• Apple said to hire banks for first sale of Swiss Franc bonds
• Apple plans debut Swiss Franc bond sale

I'm holding out for Apple Greek bonds -- LOL.

For those who don't know, the MacBook Air is the laptop that is a) thinner than a sheet of paper; and b) faster than a speeding bullet because a) it has no hard drive; and, b) it has no fans. My wife has one of the early versions of the MacBook Air (I use the MacBook Pro). It is incredible how fast her Air is compared to my laptop. Amazing. I can't imagine it being faster.

But for me, the big story is the "Apple-Swiss-franc-bonds' story. Didn't the Swiss just "unpeg" their franc from the Euro? Yup. This tells me Tim Cook is reading The Economist.

On a completely different note, this was the first independent ad-free blog that predicted that Netanyahu would not shop in Washington (which reminds me, Lyin' Brian won't be showing up for his scheduled Letterman visit later this week) as planned -- yeah, I see the typo, "shop in Washington." Freudian. Actually that was not a typo. Netanyahu would have been going shopping: shopping for political support and shopping for military hardware, though the Israelis are pretty good at building their own. Actually, I think they are really, really good at modifying the F-16s they get from the US. Anyway, now this from the AP: Israeli leader faces pressure to cancel US Congress speech. An article last week suggested he might not come: his minders and press secretary whining that they were not aware that the DEMS in Congress did not like Mr Boehner. Hello! Spoiler Alert! No one likes Mr Boehner.

As long as we're not keeping to any theme this morning, let's take a look at this headline from BloombergBusiness: Mercedes Sets January U.S. Sales Record Adding Entry-Lux Buyers:

Mercedes-Benz, the top-selling luxury-auto brand in the U.S. in 2013, started out this year in the lead with record January sales as carmakers broaden their lineups to bring in younger buyers.

The Daimler AG unit sold 22,604 vehicles last month, 103 more than a year earlier, led by the new entry-level CLA car, according to a statement yesterday. Bayerische Motoren Werke AG’s BMW, surpassed by Mercedes in 2013, reported an 11 percent gain to 18,253.

Mercedes and BMW are among luxury-auto makers expanding with lower-cost models. Sales of entry-level cars and SUVs represent 67 percent of the U.S. luxury market and probably will keep growing this year, Bloomberg Industries forecasts.

Mercedes will benefit from a full year of its CLA, which starts at $29,900, a refreshed C-Class and a new GLA small sport-utility vehicle, while BMW is introducing a $33,025 2-Series coupe. 

I think our 2012 Honda Civic, base model with no extras, was $24,000, or thereabouts. A CLA at $29,000. I remember my boss getting excited with her new "Baby Benz" (C230?) back in the late 80's or 90's when we were stationed in Germany.

As good as Mercedes is, the story over at Audi, apparently, is even better. Reuters reports that Audi beat Mercedes with record January sales.

For the record, in January:

• Tesla: #1 in deliveries in US -- an estimate
• Volt: Chevrolet Volt Sales Plunge In January 2015 To Just 542 Units – Thanks Next Gen!; Volt has worst sales month since August, 2011; Nissan Leaf also down. 
• Leaf: Nissan Leaf Sales fall in January for first time in 2 years in US
• Prius: "on par with last year's results" -- in other words,  no growth despite a huge January for Toyota

But the EV folks never give up:

During the month, only Tesla and Nissan remained in “4 digits” for sales as the seasonal pullback (due to weather/tax implications of the $7,500 credit) and pressure from future EV offerings pushed the results lower compared to December.

Overall, an estimated 5,924 plug-ins were bought in January, as compared to the 5,550 sold a year ago. And while this is not a significant increase (6.7%) overall, and is certainly trailing the 23% improvement in 2014, this month’s [EV sales] number can only be considered a success.

"...this month's EV sales number can only be considered a success..." must have been written by the Agore/Brian Williams team.

We saw a Volt this morning, on the way to Starbucks, here in the DFW metroplex. Looked really, really nice. I understand they are really, really responsive and really, really fun to drive. I have nothing against EVs; it's the myth that coal-burning cars are better for the environment than oil-burning cars that bothers me. By the way, have we ever seen a story of a Hollywood celebrity getting into a big accident while driving an EV and being chased by Papa Razzi? I can't recall.

Oh, that reminds me. This is a big story. I've talked about this often but generally not connecting the dots. The dots were connected over the weekend. The dots: a) Apple's biggest challenge is the "battery issue; b) Tesla is a battery company disguised as an automobile company.

Connecting those two dots, I saw this story in Bloomberg Businessweek over the weekend:

Doug Field never considered leaving Apple. From the summer of 2008 to the fall of 2013, Field, a former chief technology officer for Segway and development engineer for Ford, oversaw product and hardware design, working on the MacBook Air, MacBook Pro, and the iMac. He earned a generous salary and was excited by the work. Then Elon Musk and Tesla Motors came calling, and Field agreed to become vice president of its vehicle program.

In the October 2013 announcement of his hiring, Field said joining Tesla was “an opportunity for me and many others to pursue the dream of building the best cars in the world—while being part of one of the most innovative companies in Silicon Valley.”

He likely won’t be the last Apple executive poached by Tesla. The company has hired at least 150 former Apple employees, more than from any other company, even carmakers.

The former Apple staffers work in many areas of the 6,000-employee automaker, including engineering and law. “From a design philosophy, [Apple] is relatively closely aligned,” says Musk, Tesla’s co-founder and chief executive officer. Apple declined to comment for this story.

Google tesla apple. One can lead horses to water but can't make them drink. See disclaimer. 

Of course, I have the story exactly backwards. But that's fine.

Monday -- February 9, 2015; Actual Unemployment Rate EXACTLY Double The Officially Reported 5.7 Percent -- CNBC On The Fed

Active rigs:

	2/9/2015	02/09/2014	02/09/2013	02/09/2012	02/09/2011
Active Rigs	135	192	185	203	163

Note to  readers: I got a lot of e-mail from readers yesterday afternoon / last night. I was tied up with family activities but I will eventually get to all  the e-mail.

***************************

RBN Energy: Getting Better all the Time – Productivity Improvements, Crude Production and Moore’s Law

If you work for a producer or oil field services company, you might have a bit of an issue with that title.  But just for a moment, put your worries aside and consider the silver lining – huge improvements in our industry’s productivity over the last few years.  Things are getting better and better.  In fact that is part of the problem.  Producers have just become too productive for their own good. We’ve seen the consequences of this kind of productivity improvement before, not in the energy industry, but in electronics.  Moore’s law, remember?  In today’s posting we’ll look at some of the evidence of huge productivity improvements, what it has meant for production volumes, and the implications for U.S. producers now facing many of the same issues that electronics companies have dealt with for decades.

Anyone following the production profiles of recent Bakken wells that I've posted can only be amazed how incredible some of these wells are.

*************************

Job Watch: The Fed Agrees -- The Job Numbers Aren't That Rosy

CNBC is asking the question, "why is the Fed easing again":

In the course of December and January, the balance sheet of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) expanded by $186.7 billion to a total of $4.02 trillion. That policy reversal came after an impressive $244.6 billion liquidity withdrawal between August and November of last year.

What lies behind this important policy change?

Drum roll. This is why ...

....the actual unemployment rate (taking into account involuntary part-time workers and people who dropped out of the labor force because they were unable to find a job) is exactly double the officially reported 5.7 percent. On top of that, no progress was noted on the number of the long-term unemployed; at 2.8 million they still represent almost one-third of the jobless total.

That is a large labor market slack. With subdued wages and prices, it is no wonder why employment creation has become a major concern in the exercise of the Fed's policy mandate.

A broader issue for the Fed is what the current employment picture holds for the medium-term growth outlook of the U.S. economy.
That's where jobs and incomes, along with low credit costs, play a key role. Looking at the latest GDP numbers, the Fed may find some reasons to worry. 

********************************************

Another Kennedy Cold Front Later This Week

Another polar plunge to hit New England at the end of the week. This follows the current snowstorm hitting Massachusetts today. Schools in Boston will be close (again) today and tomorrow. AccuWeather is reporting:

While the short term forecast calls for over a foot of snow in parts of the Northeast, a widespread chill will take hold of the region late in the week.

A blast of arctic air will deliver the coldest weather so far this winter to the Northeast with widespread highs in the teens and single digits.

Meanderings On A Sunday Afternoon -- February 8, 2015

Recently I've been suggesting that Greece will leave the Eurozone. A reader sent me a link with Greenspan suggesting the same:

The former head of the US central bank, Alan Greenspan, has predicted that Greece will have to leave the eurozone.

He told the BBC he could not see who would be willing to put up more loans to bolster Greece's struggling economy. Greece wants to re-negotiate its bailout, but Mr Greenspan said "I don't think it will be resolved without Greece leaving the eurozone."

Earlier, UK Chancellor George Osborne said a Greek exit would cause "deep ructions" for Britain. 

I had a completely different view on the Greek/EU story back in 2012 when I wrote:

If Greece implodes [which it will if it leaves the EU], it will not simply be a change in regime. Greece will become a failed nation-state overnight. It will be Balkanized, not because that's what the Greeks want (unlike the Balkans) but because it will become "every man for himself." We may see the rise of Sparta and Athens once again. 

*****************************************

I doubt I will see the movie, Fifty Shades Of Grey. I thought of this song when I thought of the movie or vice versa:

I Close My Eyes, Shivaree
When I hear that song it reminds me of Devil Doll but not sure which song, perhaps:

Bourbon In Your Eyes, Devil Doll

**********************************

The cover story in this week's issue of Time magazine: "What Starbucks Knows About America." For the full on-line article, one needs a subscription. Several story lines, of course, but the biggest story line is the fact it is on the cover story for Time. The CEO gets sales data from across the United States (and overseas?) four times/day. Howard Schultz seems bigger than life.

The cover story in this week's issue of Bloomberg Businessweek: Inside RadioShack's Collapse. I wonder if there was anyone my age, back in the late '70s, who needed a "computer" and didn't have a "Trash-80"? From the BBW article:

When the CB boom subsided, RadioShack faced pressure to find something to replace it. The company's answer -- and perhaps the high point in its history --was the TRS-80, one of the first mass-market personal computers.

Introduced in 1977, the TRS-80 looked like a swollen version of today's desktops, with about 16K of memory; a 12-inch square monitor with one shade of gray characters and no graphics, unless you counted artfully piled-up Xs; and a cassette player where you could save information while you waited for someone to invent the hard drive. The TRS-80 used software designed by a little-known startup named Microsoft. An early advertisement boasted that it could be used to manage personal finances, plan recipes, ro play backgammon.

I remember vividly where my TRS-80 sat: in the back bedroom of our tract house on 107 Spruce Drive, Grand Forks Air Force Base, North Dakota. And, yes, I used it to keep track of my investments. I think I had shares, maybe, in a half-dozen companies, most of which I probably still hold today. I used a cassette player to save the data. Looking back, I'm not so surprised I used it; I'm more surprised that it actually worked. Talk about jerry-rigging automation. I actually still have printouts from that set-up. I can't imagine what printer "worked" with the TRS-80 -- too long ago.

**********************************

No new books to really talk about. Our older granddaughter loves science and in particular, the periodic table. So, of course she has the Elements and the companion book, Molecules by Theodore Gray. Yesterday, I bought her a small monograph by Jack Challoner, c. 2014, published in London, The Elements. As usual, the Brits never disappoint. This will make a great companion piece to Theodore Gray's Elements.

For whatever reason -- it's hard to explain -- I'm back in my Beatles phase with regard to music. It started some months ago when I saw Rolling Stone's list of the top 100 albums of all time. I've talked about this before. I apologize. The Beatles have four of the top ten albums on the Rolling Stone's list, all of which I listened to over and over on our cross-country trip to Los Angeles and back. Bob Dylan had two albums in the top ten.

I didn't need it (that's for sure) but I couldn't resist a soft-cover Rolling Stonee Special Edition, The Beatles: The Ultimate Album-by-Album Guide. Sort of the Reader's Digest of the Beatle albums. Struggling over the decision to buy or not buy, I finally made the decision after reading a very short essay by Stevie Nicks (Fleetwood Mac) about the Help album. It's hard to believe: Help did not break into the top 100 albums ranked by RS.

*******************************

The longer I am away from Boston, the more I miss it. (Perhaps not the snow and all the shoveling, but I really miss "everything" about Boston.) One of the things I most regret is not buying a "growler" at the Cape Ann Brewing Company in Gloucester along the North Shore. I was reminded of "growlers" recently when paging through a 2014 Imagine Publishing soft-cover titled All About History Book Of the Titanic. Our older granddaughter is fascinated with the Titanic and has even visited a museum of the Titanic -- somewhere on the east coast, in Massachusetts, I believe. Paging through the monograph, there was a reference to "growlers" -- smaller pieces of ice that have broken off an iceberg. Although wiki says otherwise, I like to think that "growlers" -- the jugs that beer come in -- derived their name from the icy growlers on the North Sea.

I also learned the difference between Race Point (Provincetown, Cape Cod) and Cape Race (Newfoundland) but maybe a story for a different time. 

*******************************************

Notes to the Granddaughters

In our living area in our apartment in Grapevine, we have a work area for each of the two older granddaughters. As noted above, our older granddaughter loves the periodic table:

12/16 Bakken Wells To DRL Status; EOG To Report A Huge Well Monday (Not Production Profile) -- February 8, 2015

Coming off confidential list over the weekend, Monday:

Monday, February 9, 2015

• 21536, drl, Enerplus, Mandan 150-94-32C-29H TF, Spotted Horn, no production data,
• 24744, drl, MRO, FoxUSA 14-1H,  Moccasin Creek, no production data,
• 27158, 902, EOG, Parshall 47-2226H, Parshall, t8/14; cum 99K 12/14;
• 27543, 50 (no typo), OXY USA, John Kinne 2-27-34H-142-98, Snow, t8/14; cum 11K 12/14;
• 28262, drl, MRO, Piper 34-12H, Lost Bridge, no production data,
• 28374, drl, Hess, AN-Brenna-LE-153-94-3130H-1, Antelope, no production data,

Sunday, February 8, 2015

• 28359, 1,738, MRO, Frank 24-22TFH, Bailey, t12/14; cum 26K 12/14;
• 28364, drl, BR, CCU Pullman 5-8-7MBH, Corral Creek, no production data,
• 28375, drl, Hess, AN-Brenna-LE-153-94-3129H-2, Antelope, no production data,
• 28815, drl, SM Energy, James 16X-35HA, Camp, cum 1K 12/14; (two days production)
• 28940, drl,  XTO, Allen 21X-17E, Dollar Joe, no production data,

Saturday, February 7, 2015

• 24745, drl, MRO, Melvain Fxo USA 14-4TFH, Moccasin Creek, no production data,
• 28449, 55, Corinthian Exploration, Corinthian Lochner 8-4 1H, North Souris, a Spearfish well, t10/14; cum 9K 12/14;
• 28545, drl, XTO, Schettler 14X-9A, Cedar Coulee, no production data,
• 28735, drl, CLR, Durham 7-2H, North Tobacco Garden,
• 28808, 59, Enduro, NSCU O-706-H1, Newburg, a Spearfish/Charles well, t9/14; cum 5K 12/14;
• 28849, drl, MRO, Donally 11-16H, Bailey, no production data,

 ********************************

27158, see above, EOG, Parshall 47-2226H, Parshall, a big well, again, note the production profile,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2014	9164	4417
11-2014	20090	9390
10-2014	28694	7846
9-2014	26780	3690
8-2014	13532	0

Random Update On A High-Production Petro-Hunt Well (#20342) In The Charlson After Coming Back On-Line -- February 8, 2015

Updates

November 5, 2018: production data updated; huge jump; not re-fracked;

Original Post

Original observation: after incredible production this well was suddenly taken off-line. It is now back on line. My hunch is that it was taken off-line while other wells on the pad were being fracked -- problem with that "theory" -- it was off-line a very, very long time. No updated sundry forms to shed light on the subject. 

• October 12, 2014: 20342, 1,430, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-4B-9-1H, t11/11; Charlson; cum 709K 12/16; 25 stages; 3.1 million lbs proppant; went IA 1/14; still inactive as of 6/14; back on line September, 2014

Updates

February 22, 2017: note bump in production after coming back on-line; may want to check frack history of neighboring wells. 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2016	27	5428	5398	405	7677	7456	41
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	5981	6106	513	8511	8302	0
BAKKEN	10-2016	31	6133	6120	552	9412	9196	0
BAKKEN	9-2016	30	6173	5929	557	9435	9226	0
BAKKEN	8-2016	31	6898	7184	617	10663	9790	660
BAKKEN	7-2016	28	6046	5830	482	7798	7493	105
BAKKEN	6-2016	30	6424	6589	533	7351	7077	65
BAKKEN	5-2016	31	6796	6533	558	8193	7977	0
BAKKEN	4-2016	30	6946	7205	607	9038	8828	0
BAKKEN	3-2016	31	7301	7386	622	8210	8000	0
BAKKEN	2-2016	24	6513	6157	626	7779	7172	415
BAKKEN	1-2016	23	5704	5862	688	9394	9078	99
BAKKEN	12-2015	31	7945	8148	794	14673	14370	86
BAKKEN	11-2015	30	8636	8433	941	15703	15493	0
BAKKEN	10-2015	30	8957	9146	1054	14345	13804	345
BAKKEN	9-2015	30	8520	8213	681	16447	10341	5896
BAKKEN	8-2015	31	8888	9153	796	16914	6180	10518
BAKKEN	7-2015	31	10863	11002	1333	20184	19081	886
BAKKEN	6-2015	30	10295	10306	1044	15883	15673	0
BAKKEN	5-2015	31	11035	10707	867	15752	15291	245
BAKKEN	4-2015	30	11438	11540	887	18487	9680	8597
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	10827	10941	710	12076	11640	219
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	9185	9137	545	9906	9304	406
BAKKEN	1-2015	31	12396	12796	746	25669	23287	2165
BAKKEN	12-2014	31	14458	14533	1039	15608	7239	8279
BAKKEN	11-2014	15	5675	5310	700	6660	0	6569
BAKKEN	10-2014	31	15260	15770	327	15982	10488	5277
BAKKEN	9-2014	9	6340	5735	189	6453	4390	2000
BAKKEN	8-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

February 8, 2015: this well is back on-line and producing are very high rates. Note production profile since September, 2013; the NDIC website says this well is still flowing naturally (without a pump):

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2014	31	14458	14533	1039	15608	7239	8279
BAKKEN	11-2014	15	5675	5310	700	6660	0	6569
BAKKEN	10-2014	31	15260	15770	327	15982	10488	5277
BAKKEN	9-2014	9	6340	5735	189	6453	4390	2000
BAKKEN	8-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2014	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2014	12	3687	3884	267	6051	0	5967
BAKKEN	12-2013	31	9592	9693	746	15683	0	15655
BAKKEN	11-2013	30	9617	9333	672	19118	9096	9818
BAKKEN	10-2013	31	10431	10350	737	15710	9776	5718
BAKKEN	9-2013	30	10349	10160	709	15554	8589	6755

****************************************

Global Warming House Of Cards Starting To Fall

Huge story. Being reported over at The Telegraph:

When future generations look back on the global-warming scare of the past 30 years, nothing will shock them more than the extent to which the official temperature records – on which the entire panic ultimately rested – were systematically “adjusted” to show the Earth as having warmed much more than the actual data justified.

Two weeks ago, under the headline “How we are being tricked by flawed data on global warming”, I wrote about Paul Homewood, who, on his Notalotofpeopleknowthat blog, had checked the published temperature graphs for three weather stations in Paraguay against the temperatures that had originally been recorded. In each instance, the actual trend of 60 years of data had been dramatically reversed, so that a cooling trend was changed to one that showed a marked warming.

This was only the latest of many examples of a practice long recognised by expert observers around the world – one that raises an ever larger question mark over the entire official surface-temperature record.

The Telegraph is also reporting (at the linked article):

Homewood has now turned his attention to the weather stations across much of the Arctic, between Canada (51 degrees W) and the heart of Siberia (87 degrees E). Again, in nearly every case, the same one-way adjustments have been made, to show warming up to 1 degree C or more higher than was indicated by the data that was actually recorded. This has surprised no one more than Traust Jonsson, who was long in charge of climate research for the Iceland met office (and with whom Homewood has been in touch). Jonsson was amazed to see how the new version completely “disappears” Iceland’s “sea ice years” around 1970, when a period of extreme cooling almost devastated his country’s economy.

One of the first examples of these “adjustments” was exposed in 2007 by the statistician Steve McIntyre, when he discovered a paper published in 1987 by James Hansen, the scientist (later turned fanatical climate activist) who for many years ran Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Hansen’s original graph showed temperatures in the Arctic as having been much higher around 1940 than at any time since. But as Homewood reveals in his blog post, “Temperature adjustments transform Arctic history”, GISS has turned this upside down. Arctic temperatures from that time have been lowered so much that that they are now dwarfed by those of the past 20 years.

I remember back in the 60's, or thereabouts, all the stories of the heat waves hitting Chicago and New York City during the summer -- pictures on the nightly news of fire hydrants being opened in the middle of those cities to help cool folks off. I haven't seen such news in the last two or three decades.

************************************

Truth Or Consequences

There is a rumor that NBC will start airing a new version of the first-ever on-air game show Truth or Consequences. It will be filmed in the city of Truth or Consequences, New Mexico, five nights a week with rotating hosts: Agore, Brian Williams, Lois Lerner, Jonathan Gruber, and Al Sharpton. It is expected that after January 20, 2017, the list of rotating hosts will be expanded.

Unlike the original show, the new version will be more along the line of Charlie Rose or Larry King where the host will speak for about an hour on a topic of which he or she knows nothing but claims to know everything. The show will air without commercial interruption.

It will be an interactive game show with viewers invited to call in. The first person to call in who correctly notes the "mis-remembered lie" will win a prize, still to be determined. One of the prize suggestions has been one year of prepaid ObamaCare healthcare premiums. Once the "mis-remembered lie" is revealed, the host will continue talking but sub-titles will appear at the bottom of the screen to remind viewers who may have dozed off.

(Thank you, Don.)