Monday -- February 9, 2015; Actual Unemployment Rate EXACTLY Double The Officially Reported 5.7 Percent -- CNBC On The Fed

Active rigs:

	2/9/2015	02/09/2014	02/09/2013	02/09/2012	02/09/2011
Active Rigs	135	192	185	203	163

Note to  readers: I got a lot of e-mail from readers yesterday afternoon / last night. I was tied up with family activities but I will eventually get to all  the e-mail.

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RBN Energy: Getting Better all the Time – Productivity Improvements, Crude Production and Moore’s Law

If you work for a producer or oil field services company, you might have a bit of an issue with that title.  But just for a moment, put your worries aside and consider the silver lining – huge improvements in our industry’s productivity over the last few years.  Things are getting better and better.  In fact that is part of the problem.  Producers have just become too productive for their own good. We’ve seen the consequences of this kind of productivity improvement before, not in the energy industry, but in electronics.  Moore’s law, remember?  In today’s posting we’ll look at some of the evidence of huge productivity improvements, what it has meant for production volumes, and the implications for U.S. producers now facing many of the same issues that electronics companies have dealt with for decades.

Anyone following the production profiles of recent Bakken wells that I've posted can only be amazed how incredible some of these wells are.

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Job Watch: The Fed Agrees -- The Job Numbers Aren't That Rosy

CNBC is asking the question, "why is the Fed easing again":

In the course of December and January, the balance sheet of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) expanded by $186.7 billion to a total of $4.02 trillion. That policy reversal came after an impressive $244.6 billion liquidity withdrawal between August and November of last year.

What lies behind this important policy change?

Drum roll. This is why ...

....the actual unemployment rate (taking into account involuntary part-time workers and people who dropped out of the labor force because they were unable to find a job) is exactly double the officially reported 5.7 percent. On top of that, no progress was noted on the number of the long-term unemployed; at 2.8 million they still represent almost one-third of the jobless total.

That is a large labor market slack. With subdued wages and prices, it is no wonder why employment creation has become a major concern in the exercise of the Fed's policy mandate.

A broader issue for the Fed is what the current employment picture holds for the medium-term growth outlook of the U.S. economy.
That's where jobs and incomes, along with low credit costs, play a key role. Looking at the latest GDP numbers, the Fed may find some reasons to worry. 

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Another Kennedy Cold Front Later This Week

Another polar plunge to hit New England at the end of the week. This follows the current snowstorm hitting Massachusetts today. Schools in Boston will be close (again) today and tomorrow. AccuWeather is reporting:

While the short term forecast calls for over a foot of snow in parts of the Northeast, a widespread chill will take hold of the region late in the week.

A blast of arctic air will deliver the coldest weather so far this winter to the Northeast with widespread highs in the teens and single digits.