Friday, August 22, 2014

Over At Seeking Alpha: Another Halcon TMS Well "Comes In Strong" -- August 22, 2014

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

TMS: Tuscaloosa Marine Shale. 

Over at SeekingAlpha:
  • Halcón made public test results for its second TMS East well, the Black Stone 4H-2.
  • On a per lateral foot basis, the result is in line with the play's cutting-edge IP rate.
  • Two additional wells, the Fassman 9H-1 and SD Smith 1H, have been successfully drilled and are now in the completion stage.
  • Halcón made a strong case for the TMS' potential to evolve into a highly successful play. 
Continuing:
As a reminder, the Black Stone is Halcón's second operated well on the company's TMS East acreage, and is located in Wilkinson County, Mississippi. The well was successfully drilled with a ~5,400 lateral. After all the 22 frac stages were successfully pumped, Halcón encountered fill during clean-out operations near stage 10. It appears that the company was unable to remediate the situation, and the well ended up producing from a partial wellbore. According to the company's slide (below), only 2,873 feet of the lateral are effectively contributing. The Black Stone tested with a 24-hour IP rate of 553 barrels of oil and 0.5 MMcf of gas. On a three-stream basis, this equates to 715 boe/d, assuming full ethane recovery.
I track the TMS, to some extent, here. 

Remember: many SeekingAlpha articles disappear in a few days, going to "subscriber-only" status. You've been warned.

********************************
Permian Shale Upending Oil Prices

I thought I had posted this story; maybe I did. But in case I didn't here it is again (?), the link sent in by Steven. Bloomberg is reporting:
Skyrocketing oil production in the Permian Basin has reversed a decades-old price relationship between heavy and light crude in the U.S.’s largest oil patch.
West Texas Sour traded at a $5-a-barrel premium to West Texas Intermediate in Midland, Texas, yesterday after reaching $10 on August 19, 2014, the highest level in Bloomberg data dating back to 1989. WTS has averaged a 97-cent premium this year after averaging a discount in every year back to 1989.
WTS has historically been cheaper because it’s heavier and higher in sulfur than WTI. The quality difference has meant that pipeline companies move the two grades out of the basin in separate batches.
New shale wells in the Permian have pushed production beyond pipe capacity. Most of the new crude is light, so it’s harder for producers to find space in those batches, Sandy Fielden, director of energy analytics at consultant RBN Energy LLC, said in an interview yesterday.
“There’s more WTI coming out that’s trying to get to pipelines, so it’s more stressed,” Fielden said after a presentation at a conference hosted by RBN and Turner Mason & Co.
The pipeline constraints have made both WTS and WTI in Midland discounted to the U.S. benchmark, which is WTI priced in Cushing, Oklahoma.
WTS was $8 a barrel below the benchmark yesterday, compared with $13 below for WTI in Midland. Midland is the pricing point for Permian crudes. 
RBN Energy is referenced; I think that's where I first noted this -- the Permian upending oil prices, over at an RBN Energy blog posting.

United Begins Non-Stop Flights Houston (Texas) - Williston; Coming Down Indian Hill Into Williston Area -- The Heart Of The Bakken

To get started today, Steven sends this link. The Houston Biz Journal is reporting that hiring in the energy industry in the Houston area is setting new records:
The Houston area added about 5,000 energy jobs in June and July, making the period the most active two consecutive months of hiring since the shale boom began.
The Houston, Sugar Land and Baytown region has now added about 8,700 energy jobs in 2014 through July, more than 7,700 in 2012 and the 4,700 added in 2013, according to U.S. Department of Labor statistics.
I probably would not have led off with that today, except that yesterday's big news in Williston was the inaugural United non-stop flight from Houston (Texas) to Williston yesterday.

******************************

RBN Energy:
Vacuum gas oil or VGO is one of those mystery products talked about by refiners but barely understood by those of us that are not engineers. However it is an important intermediate feedstock that can increase the output of valuable diesel and gasoline from refineries. Lighter shale crudes such as Eagle Ford can produce VGO material direct from primary distillation. Today we shed some light on this semi-finished refinery product.
A couple of years ago we posted a two part “tutorial” series on refinery operation basics. The second part of that series described upgrading units in a typical complex refinery that process the heavier and less desirable residual oil output from atmospheric distillation into lighter and more valuable refined products. The first of the upgrade processes that we described occurs in the vacuum distillation column (VDC).  Vacuum distillation recovers gas oil from the residual oil. In layman terms vacuum distillation involves heating the residual oil in a vacuum so that the boiling point temperature is reduced. This allows distillation at temperatures that are not possible in atmospheric distillation since otherwise coke from the heavy residual oil tends to solidify. Vacuum distillation breaks out light and heavy gas oil fractions leaving vacuum residuum that can be further processed by a coker unit or sold as fuel oil.
The light and heavy gas oils output from the VDC are known generically as vacuum gas oil or VGO. There are many different names used in the US and worldwide for VGO but the basic division is between light VGO (LVGO) and heavy VGO (HVGO). When VGO is traded the sulfur content is also important since lower sulfur VGO (0.5% or less sulfur) is more valuable than 2% high sulfur VGO.
Vacuum gas, the mystery gas; sort of like that mystery meat in chicken McNuggets.

******************************************

Active rigs:


8/22/201408/22/201308/22/201208/22/201108/22/2010
Active Rigs193184191192136

 The Wall Street Journal

Headline story: US eyes wider action on militants. At least they aren't called terrorists.

Lots of stories recently about how much money the oil companies have been borrowing. Here's a front section story in The Journal: with rates low, firms near borrowing records. It's not just the energy industry; it's everyone. "US corporate-bond issuance is hurtling toward a record for the third consecutive year, as companies take advantage of a surprising interest-rate decline to stock up on cash.

Then the very next story: central bankers wrestle with easy money or as we called "foreign money" when we were stationed overseas: "play money."

The Bergdahl swap: the Pentagon's swap was really, really, really illegal. And that story will have no legs. "What does it matter?" Their words, not mine.

US existing-home sales up 4.2%.

Ferguson police tactics challenged (and changed) as conflict evolved. Mostly law enforcement a) let the fire burn out on its own; b) let local citizens take control; c) let the rain quiet things down; and, d) had a meeting with Mr Holder. Talking in code helped. I think the demonstrations pretty much quit when all the "good stuff" was taken.

This will change on an hourly basis, but it's always nice to see a headline like this: US oil prices rose slightly Thursday on tight supply and signs of an improving economy.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you rad here or what you think you may have read here.

S&P 500 ends at record.

The Los Angeles Times

Discord in the family: after Israeli attack, Hamas kills 11 suspected informers.

Iraq's Mosul dam remains volatile and unstable. Two words you don't want to see when reading about huge dams: volatile and unstable.

Now it's the earth's surface that is rising due to global warming. "Western drought causes Earth's surface to rise as groundwater drops." Hmmm...maybe that's why my popsicle sticks on the beach aren't showing any rise in ocean levels as predicted by warmists. The beaches are rising also.

************************************
The Bakken -- First 24 Hours In Williston

[This is a good sign: having coffee in coffee shop on Main Street, Williston: seven people waiting in line -- 5 are women; two are men. Last year the line would have been longer, it would have been eight men in line. One woman is quite happy; her husband surprised her with an airline ticket; going home to visit family for short vacation. She was warned that some airlines are charging for carry-ons. On top of the $1300-ticket. That's just to get to Minot. LOL.]

Yes, there are a lot more women in Williston this year. I think a lot of college students.

First of all, I apologize for not posting more videos. I have a lot of video, but need faster wi-fi to get it uploaded. It will come. Maybe some photos later today.

I spent all of yesterday in Williston. I really do think traffic is much, much heavier this time -- compared to the last time I was here --  but the last time I was here, there were road restrictions due to rain, mud. However, there seems to be less traffic on the bypass west of Williston. I think trucks are using the new bypass farther west of the city.

There appears to be no police presence, and based on lessons learned in Ferguson (St Louis), Missouri, that explains why there appears to be no wide-spread demonstrations or looting in downtown Williston. The media said that the police presence in Ferguson was responsible for the riots and looting. It's also possible the fact that in Williston "everyone has a job" might be another reason. Whatever.

The big activity on Main Street, Williston, is new road construction. This project was to have started much earlier, but due to some bureaucratic snafus, apparently delayed. A block of Main Street is blocked off; foot traffic is still allowed. 

Thinking back on Ferguson. I've seen the local signs in Belfield have been edited a bit. To this sign, "no shoes, no shirt, no service," they've added: "make sure your pants are pulled up." I would have taken a photo but somehow it didn't seem right.

But there is some crime. Headline story in Williston Herald yesterday: dognapper caught red-handed. Someone trying to steal a puppy from a pet store was caught in the act. I can't make this stuff up. Based on the methods used to try to steal the puppy, my hunch is the dog had a higher IQ than the would-be dognapper. 

Speaking of no police presence, driving into the Bakken yesterday morning was quite an experience. I've alluded to it earlier. From five (5) miles south of Watford City to the 4-mile corner, during blackout conditions (night), fog, major road construction most of the way in an industrial zone: not one flagman, not one highway patrol cruiser with lights flashing; no temporary traffic signals. Traffic signs with speed limits were clearly recommendations only. The best spot to be was behind a truck driver who had traveled the route a thousand times. The worse spot to be was the lead car going through the obstacle course with a fast-moving, fully-loaded 18-wheeler 18 inches off your rear bumper.

[Speaking of which, night-time driving. For cross-country driving, what is more important, the sun or the moon? Clearly, the moon. The moon provides the only real light during night; the sun is out during the day when it's already light anyway.]

Having said that, I have huge respect for the truckers; of all the folks I think who are underpaid across the nation, the truckers may be at the top of my list. Seriously. Maybe they are well paid in the oil patch but there are any number of stories written in the national press about the shortage of truck drivers, the low pay, long hours, and time away from home. 

The first five videos I have are of driving into Williston. Some folks are going to get upset that I don't have videos of the oil patch. Those videos are coming.

This is a video of driving into the Williston area just after the sun had come up. I had been driving for 40 straight hours -- two short cat naps somewhere along the way -- and I was now into the home stretch. I had just experienced some of the most harrowing urban construction driving in my life (Watford City area), and I was now on a clear, fast road. This is coming down Indian Hill, south of Williston, driving north toward the river. I was unable to keep up with the trucks ahead of me, and obeying the unwritten rule in the Bakken, "if you can see headlights in your rear view mirror you are not driving fast enough," I was doing what I could to keep traffic moving.

For folks on the east coast watching this, note that trucks coming up hill are in the fast lane; personal automobiles are in the slow lane. Also note: there are no barriers between 'uncoming" traffic lanes.

Driving north into Williston area, south of Williston, coming down Indian Hill, 
August 21, 2014, about 7:45 a.m. CDT
 

Also, for the environmentalists: note -- no flaring seen in this video, and it was five minutes of filming in the heart of the Bakken. Yes, Virginia, there are some areas in the Bakken where one does not see any flaring. Another area: anywhere near the national parks.

Thursday, August 21, 2014

First Day In Williston -- August 21, 2014; Video Of New 5-Lane Highway Southwest Of Watford City

My wi-fi is acting up; having trouble all day accessing internet. I generally won't have wi-fi after 7:00 p.m. while visiting Williston. Postings will be delayed; photos and videos may be delayed until I get back home. I will respond to e-mail but such responses may be delayed.

**********************************
Miscellaneous While I Have Wi-Fi

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Williams Cos reaffirms dividend growth guidance through 2017; increases quarterly dividend by 32% to $0.56 per share from $0.425 per share :
  • The co is reaffirming dividend-growth guidance of ~15% annually
*****************************
Random Video Driving Into The Bakken
Bakken Driving 101

My first time back to the Bakken in several months. 

About 7:00 a.m., southwest of Watford City, on the new 5-lane (four-lane plus middle turning lane) US Highway 85 between Watford City and Williston. About 13 miles is completed between Watford City and Alexander. The drive going through construction with the fog and pitchblack was even more exciting, but I did not have camera; I was concentrating on the obstacle course. Maybe on my return trip. Smile.

Lots of video taken, but taking way too long to load. This is the shortest piece of video I had. Will gradually get others loaded.

New US Highway 85 southwest of Watford City, 7:00 a.m. CDT (6:00 a.m. MDT, I believe), August 21, 2014; visibility said to be 1/2 mile; I think it was significantly less. Almost all traffic going south from Williston to Watford City (oil service companies in Williston; most intense drilling around Watford City). I was unable to keep up with (speed) trucks in front of me. No trucks behind me at time this was being filmed.

The unwritten "rule" in driving in the fog in the Bakken appears to be: if everyone just drives faster than the person behind you, then everything should work out okay. In other words, if you see headlights in your rear view mirror you are not driving fast enough.

And, yes, regular readers know which music video I will put up tomorrow. LOL.  

............... added August 22, 2014: 

<center>
Lights Over The Hill, Slim Dusty
 

Why Man-Made Earthquakes (If They Exist) Are Less Intense, Of Less Concern Than Natural Earthquakes (Perhaps Even Of Benefit) -- August 21, 2014

I thought I had posted this before; can't find the original article. A reader sent me a link explaining why man-made earthquakes (if they exist) are less intense than natural earthquakes.
Expanded oil and gas operations in the central and eastern United States have triggered earthquakes as large as magnitude 5.7, as drillers inject wastewater back into the ground. But seismologists now report a bit of good news: such 'induced' quakes appear to shake the ground less than a naturally occurring earthquake of the same magnitude would.
That is good news because less shaking means less damage. “Maybe induced earthquakes aren’t quite as fearsome as they may seem,” says Susan Hough, a seismologist at the US Geological Survey (USGS) in Pasadena, California, whose work is published in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.
“The hazard from induced quakes is going to be down a notch relative to tectonic quakes.”
But the observation holds only for areas more than 10 kilometres from the earthquake’s epicentre. Anyone close to the drilling would still feel as much shaking as a natural quake would bring. “This might lead to a recommendation that deep injection wells should be kept 10 kilometres away from population centres,” says Hough.
And ten kilometres from the New York State border. No doubt.

**************************
Explanation For Global Warming Pause?

In 1999, the feverish rise in Earth's surface temperatures suddenly slowed, even as greenhouse gas emissions escalated. This unexpected slowdown has been called a global warming hiatus or global warming pause. Most climate scientists don't think this hiatus means global warming went kaput, but the reason (or reasons) for the slowdown has scientists flummoxed. Researchers have offered more than two dozen ideas to explain the missing heat.
Now, a study published today (Aug. 21) in the journal Science suggests a natural climate cycle in the North Atlantic Ocean gobbled Earth's extra heat. While the study is unlikely to settle the scientific debate, it does support the idea that Earth's global warming continues in the ocean, even when air temperatures stay flat.
I'm going to have to put thermometers in the ocean now, along with my popsicle sticks with millimeter hash marks. Does this mean the oceans are still rising? Warm oceans, and yet sea ice is expanding, setting new records in the Antarctic? Hard for all this to be reconciled. If nothing else, a new avenue for research grants. I think a good spot to do this research is off the big island of Hawaii. Just saying. 

Five (5) New Permits -- North Dakota

Wells coming off confidential list Friday:
  • 26468, 946, Newfield, Scott 150-99-13-24-5H, Siverston, t5/14; cum 29K 6/14;
  • 27061, drl, BR, Denali 21-4MBH 3NH, Johnson Corner, no production data,
  • 27536, 84, Legacy, Legacy Et Al Bernstein 4-17H, Red Rock, a Spearfish well, t5/14; cum 5K 6/14;
  • 27717, 50, Corinthian, Corinthian Backman 12-35 3H, North Sourth, a Spearfish well, t4/14; cum 10K 6/14;
Active rigs:


8/21/201408/21/201308/21/201208/21/201108/21/2010
Active Rigs193185197193138

Five (5) new permits --
  • Operators: Newfield (3), Fidelity (2)
  • Fields: Stanley (Mountrail), Siverston (McKenzie)
    Comments:
Wells coming off confidential list today were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.