Monday, July 28, 2014

Reader With Question About EOG Seismograph Work Southwest Of Kenmare, North Dakota (East Of The Bakken Sweet Spots), July 28, 2014.

Because not everyone remembers to check the "discussion group," I will bring this question over to the blog: has anyone heard anything about EOG having done some seismographing west and south of Kenmare?

For newbies, Kenmare is about 45 miles northwest of Minot, and pretty far east of the sweet spots in the Bakken. However, having said that this is quite interesting: there is a designated oil field southwest of Kenmare, Spencer oil field with one well on that 2-section field:
  • 17342, 84, Hess, IM-Grubb-159-89-0805H-1, Spencer, open hole frack with about 1.1 million lbs sand and proppant, t9/08; cum 88K; it's on a pump and still producing about 1,000 bbls/month
The Spencer oil field is about 7 miles southwest of Kenmare. Slightly farther southwest is the well-known Clear Water-Bakken field. The Clear Water is pretty much "owned" by EOG; it appears that almost every drilling unit in Clear Water has a producing horizontal well, about half of which are long laterals and half of which are short laterals.

Much of the area is "devoid" of any designated oil field, so the other question is whether EOG did the seismographic work inside a designated oil field or outside?

A reader pointed out that one can find out the status of these seismography studies at the NDIC site: https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/seismic/seismicstats.asp.

Update On The Proposed $65-Million Development Project For Main Street, Watford City, North Dakota, July 28, 2014

I think this came to me from "anonymous" as a comment, but now I can't find the original e-mail. Fortunately, I posted the link and saved the link. McKenzie County Farmer is reporting:
Three New York developers are planning to make a $65 million investment on Watford City’s Main Street that will consist of seven apartment buildings, as well as two, three to six-story office/retail buildings that will meet this growing community’s needs for housing and commercial space.
According to Israel Weinberger, who is partners with his brother, Johnathan, and Steven Neuman of Coltown Properties, the New York-based development company has already begun construction on Madison Heights Apartments, which is located north of the Watford Veterinary Clinic.
“Madison Heights, which will cost $45 million, will ultimately consist of seven, three to four-story apartment buildings with a total of 325 apartments,” states Weinberger. “Three of the apartment buildings are currently under construction, with the first building to be open in September, while the second phase of the project is expected to begin this fall.”
But it is Coltown Properties’ intention to construct two, three to six-story office/retail buildings on Watford City’s Main Street, that has Curt Moen, city planner, excited.
“We (the city) want to keep Watford City’s downtown as a destination,” states Moen.
“While we are going to see retail expand into other areas of the city, we want to see the professional businesses, dining and boutique shops located downtown, which is what you see in other larger communities.”
According to Weinberger, Coltown Properties has purchased both sides of Main Street from Park Avenue south to the Children’s Playground on the east side of Main Street, and to the Long X Visitor Center on the west side.
“The first phase of the Main Street project will be on the east side of Main Street,” states Weinberger. “We expect to break ground on that phase  in 2014, with development of the east side of Main Street to follow.”
Go to the link for the rest of the story. Frequently these stories in regional and local newspapers are archived and difficult to access in the future.

Someone mentioned to me about three years ago that once "Wall Street" and New York investors discover the Bakken, we're going to see some "serious" money flow into housing and urban development. It looks like "Wall Street" and New York investors have discovered the Bakken.

Completed Well Data For 1Q14 Updated

IPs for 1Q14 have been updated.

A few things jump out:
  • increased activity and better IPs in Blue Buttes oil field
  • incredible Sanish wells being drilled by Halcon
  • a disproportionate number of Zavanna wells remain on DRL status
  • WPX completed only 12 wells in 1Q14; WPX owns 7% of the reservation
An example of a Halcon Sanish well in Antelope oil field:
  • 25524, 2,584, HRC, Fort Berthold 152-94-11B-14-5H, Antelope field, a Sanish formation well, t3/14; cum 156K 6/14;
The scout ticket:

NDIC File No: 25524    
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 3/6/2014     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: SESW 2-152-94    
Current Operator: HRC OPERATING, LLC
Current Well Name: FORT BERTHOLD 152-94-11B-14-5H
Total Depth: 21295     Field: ANTELOPE
Spud Date(s):  9/1/2013
Completion Data
   Pool: SANISH     Comp: 3/6/2014     Status: F     Date: 3/6/2014     Spacing: 2SEC
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: SANISH     Cum Oil: 156487     Cum MCF Gas: 170069     Cum Water: 68195
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 3/6/2014     Pool: SANISH     IP Oil: 2584     IP MCF: 3935     IP Water: 2405

Monthly Production Data
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH6-20143027257272939013297331330216222
SANISH5-20143137328374371117435773301835373
SANISH4-20142947155467601610446972046769
SANISH3-20142944747439053190457591646650922

July 28, 2014 -- A Very, Very Quiet Monday Morning -- Except For Those Holding Family Dollar (Being Bought By Dollar Tree); Buffett Buys Canadian Utility (AltaLink); Pending Home Sales Post First Drop In Four Months

Active rigs:


7/28/201407/28/201207/28/201107/28/201007/28/2009
Active Rigs19320718113940

RBN Energy:
In 2013, refineries in Eastern Canada imported 642 Mb/d of light crude. Today there are no pipelines connecting western Canadian crude supplies to the East Coast. By the end of 2014 the Enbridge Line 9 pipeline will link Canadian supplies from Alberta and Bakken supplies from North Dakota to refineries in Montreal. By 2018 the Energy East pipeline could be flowing 1.1 MMb/d to Canada’s Atlantic Coast and beyond.
Today we begin a new series on eastern Canadian transport options by reviewing existing crude supply.
There are 9 refineries in Eastern Canada with combined capacity of about 1.3 MMb/d.
Although Canada produces far more crude than it consumes, much of this output is heavy crude from Western Canada.  
Eastern refineries are not configured to process this type of crude but instead mostly consume light crude supplied from a mixture of offshore Atlantic seaboard production, imports from international suppliers and increasingly – imports of light crude from the US. Offshore eastern Canadian production averaged 240 Mb/d in 2013 and East Coast refiners processed about 47 percent of that - mostly light sweet crude. Eastern refiners have also traditionally processed imports from the Atlantic basin – particularly light crudes from West Africa.  
But imports of US crude into Canada – primarily used to supply Eastern Canadian refineries reached a record 268 Mb/d in April 2014, double the level a year earlier, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). As we described last December, eastern Canadian refiners have been importing US crude even as exports of local offshore production have increased.
The blog discusses the Canadian refineries (three "buckets") and what the Enbridge 9A reversal means.
The Wall Street Journal

US push for Gaza truce yields little. Hamas starting firing rockets as soon as the truce ended.

The Los Angeles Times

How much water do golf courses use? This is an interesting bit of trivia.
Then there is San Juan Capistrano, which the state said had a 37% increase in water use. City officials, however, note that May was an outlier. A new golf course opened in the city, and there was an unusual amount of construction.
Los Angeles Metro (subway; light rail) uses "honor system" for riders; wondering why they are losing money. Last year: 115 million riders; 70 million paid.
Reducing fare jumping as much as possible has become increasingly important to Metro, which is under pressure to boost ticket revenue as its rail network rapidly expands.
Income from fares covers just 26% of Metro’s bus and rail system operating expenses, one of the lowest rates of any major world city. That ratio must increase in the next few years or the agency risks losing crucial federal funding needed to continue building and operating the train network.
“This isn’t Chicago or New York, where you can’t get through unless you pay,” Fields said.
I can't make this stuff up.

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Non-Bakken Stuff; For Investors Only

AAPL flirting with $100 ($700 pre-split). 

WTI crude oil at $101 -- trending toward $100. Again.

Pending home sales: first decline in four (4) months. Analysts had expected an increase:
The pending home sales index slipped 1.1% from an index reading of 103.8 in May to the June reading of 102.7. That is 7.3% lower than in June 2013, when the index reading was 110.8. The consensus estimate called for a month-over-month increase of 0.3% in pending sales. The index reflects signed contracts, not sales closings. An index reading of 100 equals the average level of contract signings during 2001.
About 30 companies -- much longer list than usual -- announce increased dividends.

Warren buys Alberta (Canada) utility:
The federal government [Candad] has signed off on the controversial $3.2-billion sale of Alberta’s largest electricity transmission provider to a company owned by U.S. billionaire Warren Buffett.
The approval, however, comes with a long list of conditions, including the guarantee that buyer Berkshire Hathaway Energy must reinvest every penny it earns from AltaLink in the company, the province or Canada, if it is allowed to complete the purchase from Quebec-based SNC Lavalin.
AltaLink president Scott Thon said the approval should reassure Albertans who fear the image of a big American company milking the province’s infrastructure for its enrichment.
Samson Oil & Gas provides Q2 update: Co files its Q2 quarterly report.
  • 72% increase in oil production in the June 2014 quarter over the March 2014 quarter
  • 75% increase in estimated oil revenue in the June 2014 quarter over the March 2014 quarter.
Investors dumped this stock (data from Yahoo!Finance which might lag a quarter)
  • market cap: $148 billion
  • enterprise value: $145 billion
  • annual revenue: $82 billion
  • total cash: $8 billion
  • total debt: $3 billion
  • operating cash flow: $5 billion
  • forward P/E: 149; trailing P/E: 500
Darling of Wall Street (data from Yahoo!Finance which might lag a quarter)
  • market cap: $4.2 billion
  • enterprise value: $6.5 billion
  • annual revenue: $1 billion
  • total cash: $15 million
  • total debt: $2.3 billion (almost as much as the company above with a market cap of $148 billion)
  • operating cash flow: $600 million
  • forward P/E: 15; trailing P/E: 28
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The 20:15 Train Wreck

The AP is reporting, two data points from this article on ObamaCare:
  • Automatic enrollment for ObamaCare enrollees for 2015I could be a new twist on an old public relations headache for the White House: You keep the health plan you like but get billed way more.
  • Even with such generous subsidies [see below -- monthly premiums as low as $82 are too onerous for many], about 4 in 10 who bought a health law plan say they have trouble paying their premiums, according to a poll by the nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation.
But much more serious:
In the 36 states served by the federal insurance exchange, the tax credits average $264 a month, reducing the average monthly premium of $346 to just $82.
The most recent court ruling says that subsidies paid by the "federal insurance exchange" (in 36 states, by the way), is unlawful. [Update: A three-judge panel for the U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington ruled Tuesday that subsidies may not be offered in the federal health exchange. That was the ruling I was referring to. It turns out that "hours later the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals offered its own decision, which upholds the Obama administration's arguments that subsidies can be applied in the federal exchange." I assume this will head to the Supreme Court; regardless, it puts the few million that are actually enrolled into more turmoil. A huge "thank you" to a reader for alerting me to the "most recent" ruling. That explains the "split ruling" that hit the news about the same time. For now, the subsidies remain in effect.]

*******************************
Ignorance Is Bliss
Easy Come, Easy Go
Almost Half Of ObamaCare Enrollees Receiving Subsidies Don't Even Know They Are Receiving Subsidies -- Think How Much They Would Like The President If They Only Knew

I make so few errors when blogging that when I do make an error it bothers me for days. I will be upset for a month on how I wrote the ObamaCare update above before a reader caught an error. But I'm in very good company it seems. I can't make this up.

I just now received this next link from another reader. CNBC is reporting:
Nearly 40 percent of Obamacare enrollees who receive federal financial assistance to help pay for insurance sold through HealthCare.gov don't even know they're getting any such aid, a survey stunningly found. [Really, stunningly?] (UC-Irvine -- really?]

That finding means that about 2.1 million people—at the very least—are unaware that they stand to lose thousands of dollars worth of aid that makes their health insurance affordable if the Supreme Court upholds a new court decision that said such subsidies are illegal under the Affordable Care Act. [I think that's almost exactly what I wrote. Memo to self: send a note to CNBC: hey, look at the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals ruling.]
Ignorance is bliss.

Easy come, easy go, if the subsidies are lost.

I can't make this stuff up.
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A Note for the Granddaughters

Virginia Woolf remains my favorite author, or perhaps better said, the author that is most important for me.

I have transcribed -- completely, word for word -- two of her novels: Mrs Dalloway and The Waves. In transcribing Mrs Dalloway I discovered on my own that it was a "prose poem," something I did not know existed until then, and then discovered I had "re-invented the wheel," as they say. Having said that, it was one of the best "literature" things I have ever done, transcribing Mrs Dalloway in free verse.

I transcribed The Waves for a number of reasons. It is perhaps the most difficult to follow, and yet it is considered by many to be her best novel. In addition, closer to home, a close family friend, Ellen, considers it her favorite novel.

Mostly because I could not understand it, I transcribed The Waves.

Today I added the following to that transcription:
Perhaps somewhere else I tried to correlate the Greek party-goers and the characters in The Waves with Virginia Woolf’s circle, but if I did not, a couple of thoughts:
Jinny: serial lover of men, can only be Nessa, (Vanessa, Virginia’s sister; who had at least three lovers)
Percival: can only be Thoby; a he-man who died falling off a horse; Virginia worshipped her brother Thoby
Neville: homosexual; could only be Clive Bell, Nessa’s husband
Susan: possibly Virginia – Jinny’s life partner through extension of Greek counterparts
Socrates: could Virginia’s husband Leonard Woolf be Socrates?
Bernard is the storyteller in The Waves which is most likely Lytton Strachey. From wiki: he is best known for establishing a new form of biography in which psychological insight and sympathy are combined with irreverence and wit. His biography Queen Victoria (1921) was awarded the James Tait Black Memorial Prize. He was perhaps best known for his Eminent Victorians.
Rhoda is the youngest; I can’t think of a third woman in Virginia Woolf's circle; it was just Virginia and Vanessa, and many men: Leslie, Thoby, Adrian, Clive, Duncan Grant, Lytton Strachey. Roger Fry was also one of Vanessa’s lovers – she had at least three lovers: Clive, whom she married; Duncan Grant, whom she probably loved most, if I remember correctly; and, Roger Fry. There were several women in the group, but less well-known: Dora Carrington, Angelica Garnett, Julia Strachey, Molly (Mary) MacCarthy, Lydia Lopokova. Based on the linked essay below, Mary MacCarthy. 
A superb essay, by the way on The Waves and the Bloomsbury Group: Utopian Wholes: Virginia Woolf's The Waves and the Bloomsbury Group. 

Sunday, July 27, 2014

2Q14 US GDP To Be Reported This Week; Your Guess

I believe 2Q14 US GDP will be reported at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, July 30, 2014.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site, nor is it a macro-economic site, but I'm bored tonight with the granddaughters gone, and looking to replace the current poll. This polling question is no worse than some, and may, in fact, be better than most. Whatever.

Having said that, first the results of the current poll in which we asked whether folks would fly on a plane using jet fuel refined from highly volatile Bakken crude oil:
  • yes: 96%
  • no: 4%
Obviously a tongue-in-cheek poll but I'm glad -- it appears -- folks answered rationally.

Now, for the new poll, which is not "tongue-in-cheek" but probably not all that interesting.

What do you think the 2Q14 US GDP will come in at?
  • 2% or less
  • 2.1% (inclusive) to 2.5% (inclusive)
  • 2.6% (inclusive) to 2.9% (inclusive)
  • 3.0%, right on the nose
  • at 3.1% or greater