Tuesday, June 3, 2014

Illinois And EPA's Proposed New Rules In President Obama's Relentless War On Coal

I don't plan to write much or often about President Obama's new rules in the relentless war-on-coal, but this is a nice article sent to me be a reader. Chicago Business is reporting how the state of Illinois will be affected by the new rules and how they will respond:
Are Illinois power plants a source of significant emissions?
Yes, indeed. Only five other states emitted more greenhouse gases from power plants than Illinois in 2012, according to the EPA. And while the Obama administration is saying that the proposed rule requires a 30 percent reduction of carbon from the power sector by 2030 based on their emissions in 2005, the reductions don't fall equally state by state. Illinois is being asked to cut its power-plant emissions by 33 percent from its 2012 emissions. Only two other Midwestern states, Wisconsin and Minnesota, are being asked to do more. Strangely, neighboring Indiana, which emits more greenhouse gases than far larger Illinois thanks to its heavy dependence on carbon-heavy coal, must cut its emissions by only 20 percent.
This was my reply to the reader:
Another very good article.
This is exactly what will happen: states will apply for / receive waivers to delay.
From the article: ".. pushed by mining and transportation unions along with the coal industry, called on the EPA to allow Illinois to take longer to comply with the rule and to meet less stringent standards (if it desires) in the interest of keeping coal-fired power plants open."
A couple of days ago I posted a story that said the EPA cannot have different rules for different regions, giving unfair advantage to one region over another (inter-state commerce law), so it only takes one state to win a delay/waiver, as far as I can tell -- because many states provide electricity for neighboring states (Utah coal-electricity for California; ND coal-electricity to MN).
The other good news: presidents come and go.

Mineral Owners Breathe A Sigh Of Relief: New Analytic And Metering Verification Service Opens New Facility In Williston

The Bakken Magazine is reporting:
Inspectorate, a division of Bureau Veritas Commodities Division, has opened a new analytical testing facility in Williston, N.D., which specializes in the analysis of crude oil and gas production from the Bakken shale play in North Dakota.
Bureau Veritas also provides meter verification services for Williston and the surrounding areas. Meter verification ensures that both the government and the land owner are getting accurate representation of what is being pulled out of the ground, and that royalty payments are accurate.

For Investors Only -- June 3, 2014; Seattle Raises Minimum Wage To Double Federal Minimum

Dividends: Lowe's increased their dividend substantially, from 18 to 23 cents.

Trading at new 52-week highs: DVN, EPD, ERF, PSXP, TRGP,

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

AAPL is moving back up after yesterday's incredible WWDC announcements. I thought the presenters' narratives were often a bit cheesy and unnecessary, but the software was incredible. Steve Jobs would have been a better pitchman. May he RIP.

AAPL will soon execute its announced 7-1 stock split. Just looking at the graphs of a number of energy stocks it looks like there may be a number of other companies that may be split 3-2 or 2-1 before the end of 2015.

Car company news I heard on the radio sounded good. So let's check.

Ford: May sales rose 3.0% year/year to 254,084 vehicles: Retail sales set several model records with 174,889 vehicles sold - an increase of 6 percent.
Data points:
  • Fusion: best month ever 
  • Escape: best month ever 
  • Explorer: best month in 10 years 
  • Lincoln MKZ: best May ever
Ford sales in India? Up 105%. Most of the probably run on gasoline.
Comment: this certainly doesn't sound like a bad economy despite all the bad mainstream news. No wonder the president is not worried about jobs.
General Motors: same with GM -- a huge month. General Motors delivered 284,694 vehicles in the United States in May, up 13% compared to a year ago.
Data points:
  • company's best May in seven years
  • best total sales since August 2008
  • sales to individuals up 10 percent
  • fleet sales up 21 percent
Comment: this certainly doesn't sound like a bad economy despite all the bad mainstream news and the lawsuits. No wonder the president is not worried about jobs.
Gold his a four-month low, longest losing streak in seven months.

T is getting a lot of press today: the company raised revenue guidance, but lowered earnings guidance. Maintains #1 position among Dow dividend payers.

I see the city of Seattle increased its minimum wage to $15/hour.
This may be one of the more interesting "local" stories to watch. If the entire state went to $15/hour minimum wage, that's one thing, but the city is awash with suburbs just outside city limits. It doesn't take a Ronald McDonald clown to figure out where Burger King will expand.
Inner city folks will note it first. In Seattle it may not be a big deal, the inner city is probably not as poor as the inner cities of Detroit, NYC, Boston, and Atlanta. But stereotypically, inner city residents will have more difficulty paying higher prices for commodities (fast food, gasoline, everything in Wal-Mart) than the folks in the suburbs.
I saw a great example of this in Belmont, a suburb of Massachusetts, during the four years our younger daughter and her family lived there. Not quite the same story, but a great analogy.
Belmont is a prosperous suburb (home of Mitt Romney). A lot of rich folks live there. The not-so-rich represent the spectrum: well-to-do to lower middle class homeowners. It's a big suburb, population: 24,000.
But over the four years I visited there I noted there were no restaurants to speak of (except pizzarias). I did not notice any nice restaurants. Finally, I asked about that, curiosity getting the best of me.
It turns out Belmont was a "dry" city up until very recently: no alcohol allowed to be served in any restaurants. So, no restaurants. But plenty of nice restaurants in the city of Boston and all the surrounding suburbs. So, I suspect the same thing will happen in Seattle and other cities who unilaterally raise the minimum wage to double the state minimum wage: new retail stores will build on the other side of the street, just outside the city limits. Gradually, over time, the existing retail base will gradually melt away. The city will lose its tax base, and its poorer citizens will lose access to less expensive alternatives. The inner city workers -- bankers, brokers, lawyers, pharmacist, physicians -- might work in the inner city during the day, but they will go home to their suburbs on evenings and weekends.
It will be interesting to watch this play out. I may be wrong. Inner city folks may get used to paying higher prices for McDonald's, along with their higher electricity bills, and earning $15/hour will allow them that luxury.
With regard to the "Suicide-in-Seattle" a reader raised a couple of issues:
  • customers willingness to tip "high-paid" Starbucks baristas?
  • 7.65% for social security from both employer and employee
  •  grocers to benefit as more folks brown-bag it, rather than stop at fast-food restaurant for lunch
 
>Sleepless in Seattle

, Soundtrack

How Good Are The Bakken Wells? Getting Better And Better Every Day

Locator: 10010ZORRO.

These are the "high-IP" wells that have been reported in the past 24 - 48 hours: wells coming off the confidential list and wells that came of the confidential list some time ago, went to DRL status, and have not been completed, tested, and reported:

  • 25860, 2,716, Oasis/QEP, Zorro 4-35-26BH, Grail, middle Bakken, 1280-acre unit; 32 stages; 3.3 million lbs sand; t1/14; cum 288K 9/19; cum 328K 9/21; cum 384K 2/25;
  • 25861, 2,655, Oasis/QEP, Zorro 3-35-26BH, Grail, middle Bakken, 1280-acre unit; 31 stages; 3.1 million lbs sand; t1/14; cum 278K 9/19; cum 316K 9/21; cum 366K 2/25;
  • 26060, 2,323, Oasis/QEP, Zorro 27-34-26-35LL, Grail, Three Forks, 1280-acre unit; 31 stages; 2.1 million lbs sand; t1/14; cum 186K 9/19; off line for about 18 months; back on line 9/21; cum 191K 9/21; cum 252K 2/25;

  • 25208, 2,149, Enerplus/Bruin/HRC, Fort Berthold 148-95-22C-15-4H, Eagle Nest, t4/14; cum 325K 9/19; cum 374K 9/21; cum 427K 6/24; offline now;

  • 25682, 2,040, BR, Rising Sun 31-1TFH-7NH, Clear Creek, t5/14; cum 280K 9/19; cum 289K 9/21; 328K 12/24;  off line now;
  • 25829, 2,088, BR, Sunline 21-1MBH-5SH, Clear Creek, 4 sections, t5/14; cum 241K 9/19; cum 306K 1/25; off line;
  • 26046, 2,485, BR, Capitol 14-7MBH, Westberg, t5/14; cum 227K 9/19; cum 255K 9/21; cum 296K 2/25;
  • 26047, 1,683, BR, Capitol 24-7TFH, Westberg, t5/14; cum 174K 9/19; cum 188K 9/21; cum 219K 2/25;

  • 26375, 1,960, Whiting/KOG, P Vandeberg 154-99-1-1-12-16H, Stockyard Creek, t5/14; cum 255K 9/19; cum 291K 9/21; cum 325K 2/25;
  • 26376, 1,267, Whitng/KOG, P Vandeberg 154-99-1-1-12-16H3, Stockyard Creek, t5/14; cum 89K 9/19; cum 110K 9/21; cum 126K 2/25;
  • 26377, 2,198, Whiting/KOG, P Vandeberg 154-99-1-1-12-15H, Stockyard Creek, t4/14; cum 212K 9/19; cum 238K 9/21; cum 257K 2/25;
  • 26378, 2,086, Whiting/KOG, P Vandeberg 154-99-1-1-12-15H3, Stockyard Creek, t4/14; cum 171K 9/19; cum 204K 9/21; cum 226K 2/25;

Tuesday, June 3, 2014

Active rigs:


6/3/201406/03/201306/03/201206/03/201106/03/2010
Active Rigs189189215171121

RBN Energy: moving natural gas bi-directionally from / to the Gulf / the Marcellus.
With the Northeast natural gas market now dominated by physical flows from the Marcellus/Utica, Appalachia producers are targeting the Midwest, the Southeast and—the biggest prize of all—the LNG export projects under development along the Gulf Coast. Getting gas to market, however, requires a top-to-bottom re-plumbing of interstate pipelines originally designed to move gas from the Gulf Coast, not to it. In today’s episode of our series on moving gas out of the Marcellus/Utica we look at plans to add bi-directionality to pipelines within the Midwest and to the Gulf.