Cool

This is cool.

Yesterday in one of my long rambling notes I mentioned that ObamaCare and an increased minimum wage will hasten the day when fast food restaurants like McDonald's move to kiosk ordering. It is beyond me why they haven't already started.

Folks can by car insurance on-line.

Folks can buy airline tickets, and check-in, on-line.

In some states, one can even buy health insurance on-line. I can't imagine many things much more complicated and/or important than health insurance. 

Purchasing health care insurance, car insurance and airline tickets on-line and yet, with very, very few exceptions one cannot order a hamburger, FF, and a Coke while standing in line at McDonald's, holding a tablet or smart phone. iBeacon could change that in a heartbeat.

I wouldn't have brought this up, but I was told today that one of the airlines, Continental, I believe, at one of their terminals now boards passengers without an airline employee scanning one's ticket. At the boarding gate, there is a turnstile-like gate that opens/closes when a passenger scans his/her own ticket. Most gates require at least two airline employees at the counter; the turnstile will minimize this. At most, a gate will require one airline employee in the future. And with gates across from each other, one airline employee could easily manage two gates. One can now, in certain locations, purchase a ticket, download the boarding pass on a tablet/smart phone, and board an airline without human contact. Except for TSA unparalleled attention one can avoid personal contact throughout the entire airline experience.

Looks Like We Have A New Shale Play To Keep Track Of: Burnt Wood Canyon,

A big thank you to a reader alerting me to this new shale play, southwestern Nebraska/northwestern Kansas, on the state line. 

THE KANSAS-NEBRASKA LINE SOUTH OF STRATTON, Nebraska -- Sparked by a series of significant oil strikes, one of the biggest oil booms in this region's history is bringing an outpouring of oil activity along the Kansas-Nebraska line south of Stratton, Nebraska.

Exceeded only by the Sleepy Hollow and Ackman Field discoveries of the late 1950s and early 1960s, the latest rush of petroleum activity got a big boost July 5, 2013, when Berexco hit a 400 barrel a day well on the ranch land of Rich and Ken Walter. Before and since, drilling crews from Berexco and Murfin have brought in a bunch of big producers on both sides of the state line, with the core of the prolific production centered in the Walter Brothers' Burnt Wood Canyon field.

"The Sleepy Hollow name became famous in the 1960s," said Bill Sydow, the executive director of the Nebraska Oil & Gas Conservation Commission. "Going forward, the Burnt Wood Canyon name will define this development."

Shocked! I'm Shocked! It Might Be A Cooler Summer

AccuWeather is reporting: potential record ice on Lake Superior may mean a cooler summer.

Jobs Watch: Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease Slightly

Some obscure website is reporting: the advance figure was 336,000; a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure of 339,000.

The four-week moving average, a better indicator of how poorly things are going, rose 1,750 to 336,750. The fact the newest figure almost matches the average suggests nothing is changing one way or the other.

Looking at the graph at the linked site, which shows the four-week average going back to 2000, suggests we are probably going to be at this level (330,000 +/-) for the rest of my investing lifetime, barring another repeat of what we've just been through.

It's really quite remarkable how steep the curve was going up back in 2008 - 2009, and how quickly it has come back to the baseline, in the big scheme of things, despite the politics and the uncertainty of ObamaCare.

Looks like happy days are here again.

Thursday -- For Investors Only And Other Odds And Ends; Doubling The Minimum Wage Won't Offset Losses Incurred Due To ObamaCare

KOG trading at a new high. Just barely, but it's still a new high. 

Maybe more on this later: a recurring theme on this blog is health care cost-shifting due to Obamacare. Now this report, read it closely. It's the most succinct explanation of what I mean by cost-sharing.  Bloomberg is reporting:

One-third of U.S. employers plan to move their workers’ health-care coverage to a private exchange in the next few years, a survey found, following the lead of companies like Walgreen Co. seeking to reduce costs.

While 95 percent of employers said they would continue to offer health care in the next three to five years, 33 percent may use a private exchange to provide the benefit up from 5 percent currently, according to a survey released today by a unit of Aon Plc, a London-based insurance broker.

Traditionally, most large employers are self-insured, meaning they take on the financial risk of their employees’ health costs. Under a private exchange, workers are given a subsidy to pick from a limited number of health plans and the insurer takes on the risk.

Wal-Mart "badly" misses expectations. Expectations: $1.59 vs actual: $1.34, compared to $1.67 a year earlier. Profit falls 21%; guides lower.  I haven't been in a Wal-Mart in months. Our favorite retailer remains Target but we try not to go there, and we definitely never use a credit card there. My wife mentioned that ever since the Target security breach, she has saved a lot of money. I'm impressed. 

Russian hockey team loses to Finland; out of the competition.  The New York Times reports:

President Vladimir V. Putin and any other Russian who was asked made it plain that the Sochi Games’ success hinged on the Russian men’s hockey team.

Sure, Russia has a formidable delegation, winning medals in many events, from biathlon to bobsled. But it was the hockey team, representing the national sport, that would offer the world the most meaningful symbol of the country’s might.

Active rigs in North Dakota:

	2/20/2014	02/20/2013	02/20/2012	02/20/2011	02/20/2010
Active Rigs	186	184	200	171	94

Sixteen companies announce increased dividends or distributions, including Alaska Air Group, Flowserve, Foot Locker, Permian Basin (PBT).

Denbury Resources misses by $0.04, misses on revs: Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.27 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.04 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.31; revenues fell 1.2% year/year to $596 mln vs the $610.22 mln consensus.

American Railcar Industries beats by $0.14, reports revs in-line: Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $1.14 per share, $0.14 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $1.00; revenues fell 5.1% year/year to $197.2 mln vs the $196.86 mln consensus. Primary reason for the increase in manufacturing revenue was a higher mix of tank railcars; the primary reason for the increase in leasing revenue was an increase in the number of railcars and an increase in the average lease rate.

Could we see a Balkanization of the union? A segment of Colorada wants to split away from Colorado. Now, a proposition to split California into six states gets the "ok" to gather signatures; 12 senators vs the current two.

RBN Energy: musings on US energy policy.

There is a common theme of surplus in US energy markets today with more natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and light sweet crude oil being produced than can be processed and consumed domestically. The likely destination of those surpluses is export markets – either directly or in the form of derivative products.  How should we think about these exports in the context of “energy independence”?   U.S. energy policy since the 1970s has been centered on the importance to national security of reducing dependence on foreign resources—the oft-touted, elusive goal of “energy independence.”  Today we examine whether a btu energy balance is a practical and effective measure of energy independence.

One way to look at the energy independence issue is the same way we view US economic national security, where the closely watched statistic is the balance of payments.  By that measure if we spend more on imports than we make back on exports there is a net outflow of money.  But if we spend about the same amount of money on imports as we make on exports, we have a healthy trading relationship with the world.  The same kind of logic could be applied to energy.  The theme of today’s blog forms part of the analysis in RBN Energy’s latest Drill Down Report “The Future’s So Bright I’ve Gotta Wear Shades – Crude, NGLs and Natural Gas Outlook."

 The Wall Street Journal

Yes, the news that was posted yesterday made the front section of The WSJ: judge in Nebraska says "NO" on the Keystone XL 2.0 North route. Back to square one for the banana republic.

Japan's trade deficit soars.

There is a suggestion that work on widening the Panama Canal may resume.

I first learned about this story in Forbes many, many years ago. Lost track of it. Wondered how it would play out. Grupo Mexico and Kansas City Southern are battling a Mexican bill that would dial back exclusive railroad rights purchased more than a decade ago. I'm amazed the "exclusive deal" last this long.

In the third section, the lead story: Arctic winds put fire under natural gas, which traded over $6 yesterday, at a five-year high. We'll see more of the same this summer when global warming kicks in and everyone turns on their air conditioners.

The Los Angeles Times

In parched states, fracking thirst grows. Greeley, CO, sells water to the oil and gas companies that have bought a drilling boom to town Some residents wonder whether it will run out. Fracking, nationwide, uses much less water than the amount of water used to water golf courses. Another inconvenient truth.

The LA Times is absolutely right: the last argument against raising the minimum wage is  over. Presidential wanna-be's need to get out in front on this. The minimum wage needs to be raised to help offset the impact of Obamacare on low-wage earners. Because of Obamacare, the federally-mandated 30-hour work week will result in an immediate 25% pay cut for low-wage earners. That's bad enough, but the same folks will be the first targets for health care cost shifting. I don't think doubling the minimum wage would be enough to offset the losses that low-wager earners will incur because of Obamacare. By the way, those folks who suggest with the 30-hour work week, they will have the opportunity to get a second 30-hour/week job. Not so fast. The jobs may not be available. ObamaCare and an increased minimum wage will both result in lost job opportunities.